Complex of storms with history of severe weather including damaging wind gusts exceeding 60MPH will enter NW WI within the next few hours. Some weakening as the complex moves through NE WI/UPPER MI early SAT AM.
Wind shear of 20-35kts not strong enough to balance out the 8,000 SBCAPE. Out-of-control outflow on the southern fringe in NODAK. Segment advancing through MN will probably intensify this evening...main event. Heading into NW WI overnight.
On the road. Heading to Eau Claire, adjustments from there.
Scattered storms will move into NW WI overnight. A severe storm is possible but gradual weakening is expected. Watch in MN NOT extended to the east & storm reports marginal. Not too concerned atm. Tstorms possible throughout tomorrow.
WEDS - Keeping an eye on Illinois. Interesting 850mb flow pattern from 12zNAM. Situation is complicated by morning convection. Plenty of uncertainty. Could see this event surge as we get closer given wind fields. I will chase it if setup comes together in the northern half of IL.
MONTHLY FORECASTS - Updated today 7/10/2020 through SEP 2020. Had to wait on NOAA error preventing data download/access. Thanks!
JUN MONTHLY REANALYSIS - was very good! How does it work? Reforecast previous month precip and temp trends based on actual monthly values for teleconnections. This helps isolated the forecast method to say that If I were able to correctly predict teleconnection indexes; it's possible to forecast trends months ahead. Always some uncertainty; for example what happened with AO in Nov 2019.
Backyard intercept. Was so close to heading southwest earlier. Waiting worked out
numerous thunderstorms continue across southern WI. Some are strong or severe with strong wind gusts, heavy rain. Large cluster of cells now entering SW WI will push east this afternoon.
Severe T-storm threat will continue for at least a few more hours. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain the primary threats. Cell in Douglas county heading east looks vicious. Stay safe! Gust front will push off this activity into the rest of northern WI overnight.
A couple t-storms slipping through central WI thanks to an old OFB into strong instability. Not present on the models but there nonetheless. Possible these storms continue...also possible they fall apart.
Severe weather has been decreasing in Wisconsin year over year.
Heavy rain west of Eau Claire over the last 12 hours. Rainfall in excess of 5", impassable roads and water rescues reported in Baldwin! This convective complex is moving east today likely to weaken somewhat. Isolated to scattered tstorms may develop across WI too. -JP
Long chase today, frustrating for the most part with long process of elimination from Portage to the WI/IL border. 2020 strikes again! Persistence did pay off on this cell NW of Rockford IL. Had a hard time keeping up with it, many appearance changes over the course of an hour. I will be out of the office until Monday PM unless ma nature has other plans. Should have enough footage for a short YouTube episode. On to the next!
Choices choices choices. My concern is not committing to either and getting stuck in between. Process of elimination.
Very impressed with dynamic aspect of the approaching low/short wave. Needs to destabilize. Expecting the NAMhres to verify for southern WI.
Updated T-storm Forecast for this afternoon. Video forecast posted on the storm event page. Stay safe and take care! Thanks! https://www.wisconsinwx.com/storm.aspx?s=228