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Models trending more aggressive with t-storm activity SAT AM over northern & central WI. Remnants of overnight complex. Timing is poor for severe wx but at least will mention the chance of storms. Gradually weakening during the day.
Small cluster of thunderstorms continues through northern MN, set to head into northwest WI tonight. You can tell by the yellow SVR TSTORM WATCH that more development was expected into the Minneapolis region. Simply hasn't happened to this point and it's looking more likely that the existing storm cluster to head due east into far northern WI. A few damaging wind gusts overnight.
I've never waited until the last minute on so many events like I have in 2020. Storms have favored Minnesota and NW WI. I won't put THE ENTIRE STATE on blast if only a small percentage is potentially impacted. Low certainty. Slow year overall. I'm worried one will sneak through like Aug 2013. When you are least suspecting, it comes and need the message to get across. Miss miss miss, hit.
Models seem to be struggling on tstorm chances this weekend. Still think best chance for storms will be Sunday night or early Monday morning statewide with cold front. Just bizzare that latest models showing nothing SAT PM with heat/instability pool developing. Best chances north throughout the weekend. Some short range models sparse for SUN PM too. Dont want to rule out anything right now.
Based on top 10 coldest 8/4's in Green Bay, the following SEP-OCT looks like this. Interesting that early AUGUST cold suggests warmer/drier SEP-OCT.
00/06 EC/GFS focusing bulk of t-storm chance on Sunday night, less aggressive for SAT & MON. GFS pictured here.
In an average year, Wisconsin will have 11 days of severe t-storm activity after 8/5. The season is 75% over.
Another cool August morning! Temperatures are 15 degrees below average! It's beautiful but also scary...we need another two months of summer! High near 70 today (warmer west). Have a great day :)
A few recent changes/improvements: 1. disabled yearly membership option. Might bring it back in winter. 2. New "Send all Comms" option on the account page if you wish to receive all wiwx alerts regardless of location. 3. fixed the GPS location not updating bug on the LIVE MAP. 4. When membership payments are canceled, your membership continues until the renewal date. Quiet weather is hard but I keep pushing.
Pretty quiet weather!
Lightning
LIGHTNING
WINTER, WI SAWYER
-
A strong cell or two possible this aft/tonight in western WI. Rain and clouds have kept the atmosphere stabilized limiting overall threat. Some talk of a SVR WATCH. Some models develop a few more storms tonight.
Isolated tstorms are possible this afternoon & evening across Wisconsin. A few storms moving into western WI right now.
Fewer warnings than before across the state. Keeping a close eye on it yet....not over. Based on reports it could be worse. Think we'll be alright. Strong to severe storms could make it all the way to Lake Michigan...specifically those in central WI which are also trying to get into southern WI.
Cells losing some organization on latest scans. Looked primed to roll not long ago. Told you this event would be hard to pin down. The night is young. I'm taking a break rn, will check back in a couple hours. I will head out locally around 3am if needed...not too far. Just enough to get in on some of the action.
Interesting to watch these three cells. Not warned currently. Heavy Rain primarily. Southernmost cell is a right mover that could dive into central WI. Instability gradient in play.
Dealing with supercells west of Eau Claire atm and TOR WARNING near River Falls is legit. I believe this activity will continue eastward along the instability gradient. Busy night? Eyes on
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH for northern WI tonight. Scattered strong tstorms are developing in northwest WI heading east overnight. A few cells could move into central or southern WI. Severe weather possible including damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.
CAPE gradient NW to SE through WI. Keep an eye on that tonight.
Large supercell set to track near & north of Eau Claire this evening...we'll call it "Big Boy". TOR WARNINGS earlier but weak rotation, since reduced to SVR TSTORM. What about additional development? Strange than were not seeing more cells popping. Suggests Big Boy will be the focal point tonight.
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T-storms expected to develop in the region along the Mississippi River north of Minneapolis late this afternoon. They will push east this evening into the overnight hours. Severe weather is possible. Setting the stage with this update. Will keep you posted!
Overnight storms heading out to sea soon in NE WI. Damaging wind gusts the main threat for Marinette, Door County. Watching the cluster west of La Crosse...not certain it will hold together as it heads east but it looks solid still.
Complex of storms with history of severe weather including damaging wind gusts exceeding 60MPH will enter NW WI within the next few hours. Some weakening as the complex moves through NE WI/UPPER MI early SAT AM.
Wind shear of 20-35kts not strong enough to balance out the 8,000 SBCAPE. Out-of-control outflow on the southern fringe in NODAK. Segment advancing through MN will probably intensify this evening...main event. Heading into NW WI overnight.
On the road. Heading to Eau Claire, adjustments from there.
Scattered storms will move into NW WI overnight. A severe storm is possible but gradual weakening is expected. Watch in MN NOT extended to the east & storm reports marginal. Not too concerned atm. Tstorms possible throughout tomorrow.
WEDS - Keeping an eye on Illinois. Interesting 850mb flow pattern from 12zNAM. Situation is complicated by morning convection. Plenty of uncertainty. Could see this event surge as we get closer given wind fields. I will chase it if setup comes together in the northern half of IL.
MONTHLY FORECASTS - Updated today 7/10/2020 through SEP 2020. Had to wait on NOAA error preventing data download/access. Thanks!
JUN MONTHLY REANALYSIS - was very good! How does it work? Reforecast previous month precip and temp trends based on actual monthly values for teleconnections. This helps isolated the forecast method to say that If I were able to correctly predict teleconnection indexes; it's possible to forecast trends months ahead. Always some uncertainty; for example what happened with AO in Nov 2019.
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
2.81
"
Backyard intercept. Was so close to heading southwest earlier. Waiting worked out
numerous thunderstorms continue across southern WI. Some are strong or severe with strong wind gusts, Heavy Rain. Large cluster of cells now entering SW WI will push east this afternoon.
Severe T-storm threat will continue for at least a few more hours. Damaging wind gusts and Heavy Rain the primary threats. Cell in Douglas county heading east looks vicious. Stay safe! Gust front will push off this activity into the rest of northern WI overnight.
A couple t-storms slipping through central WI thanks to an old OFB into strong instability. Not present on the models but there nonetheless. Possible these storms continue...also possible they fall apart.
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
FOND DU LAC, WI FOND DU LAC
1.54
"
Severe weather has been decreasing in Wisconsin year over year.
Lightning
LIGHTNING
MARKESAN, WI GREEN LAKE
-
Heavy Rain west of Eau Claire over the last 12 hours. Rainfall in excess of 5", impassable roads and water rescues reported in Baldwin! This convective complex is moving east today likely to weaken somewhat. Isolated to scattered tstorms may develop across WI too. -JP
Long chase today, frustrating for the most part with long process of elimination from Portage to the WI/IL border. 2020 strikes again! Persistence did pay off on this cell NW of Rockford IL. Had a hard time keeping up with it, many appearance changes over the course of an hour. I will be out of the office until Monday PM unless ma nature has other plans. Should have enough footage for a short YouTube episode. On to the next! 
Amish Buggy
AMISH BUGGY
MARKESAN, WI GREEN LAKE
1
Choices choices choices. My concern is not committing to either and getting stuck in between. Process of elimination.
Very impressed with dynamic aspect of the approaching low/short wave. Needs to destabilize. Expecting the NAMhres to verify for southern WI.
Updated T-storm Forecast for this afternoon. Video forecast posted on the storm event page. Stay safe and take care! Thanks! https://www.wisconsinwx.com/storm.aspx?s=228
12z short range models show highest threat for severe storms across southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Sim radar img at 6PM.
Plenty of spotty convection throughout the warm sector as the warm front (WF) pushes into WI. The WF will not make it as far north as initially forecast, probably up between Madison and Oshkosh area. Working on more updates stay tuned.
More cool clouds today 
Cool storm a few minutes ago!
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
1.12
"
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
NORTH FOND DU LAC, WI FOND DU LAC
-
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.57
"
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