1.13.2021 - Made adjustments to long range outlook today as some of the major global signals have changed. La nina hanging on longer. AMO has stayed near neutral last two months. Latest analogs suggest wetter & colder than average January for Wisconsin but still feel previous forecast maps are good. Be prepared for much colder than avg temps developing in the second half of January enough to offset early month warmth. It's been dry to this point but doubtful it remains that way.
12.21.2020 - Latest long range outlook today is suggesting that the DEC upper trough tendency in the eastern US will slide westward into western North America in January. In summary, no major changes from previous forecast except to emphasize temp forecast. This is far from certain but what we're going with for now.
TEMPS - Above average temperatures expected across the eastern US including Wisconsin.
PRECIP - Storm track through the Ohio valley is favorable for near or locally above average precipitation trends across Wisconsin in January. Maybe not exclusively...but by the end of the month you'll should see it. I'm keeping Wisconsin in a the NEAR-NORMAL category for now...my feeling is for a "typical winter-like January". Wetter across the Ohio valley.
Confidence remains LOW. AMO might be flipping to neu-neg and PDO forecast is less certain following 11-2020 neg spike...in other words long term trends could be more consistent. Looking at CFS monthlies, the temp forecast is in general agreement.
11.25.2020 - Near average January for both precipitation and temperature. Perhaps some winter storms that bring above avg precipitation on a local basis.