JUN 16 - Doing alright but overall pattern not evolving the way I predicted. We'll see how this ends up.
JUN 8 - No changes for June. Not seeing the MCS signal yet HOWEVER getting the above avg precip on time. I'm okay with the temperature forecast.
MAY 22 - Removed the A+ target zone from Iowa due to May precip forecast performance. Previous forecast thoughts still apply. Increased confidence.
MAY 5 - Temperatures will be near to below average to start but warming into above average levels more frequently by WK2/mid-month. The warmest days will likely be around 6/20 to 6/25. The wettest timeframe will be between 6/6 and 6/17, potential for severe weather events in the form of MCS systems moving out of the west. Severe weather not necessarily confined to that timeframe and likely to occur occasionally like normal. The driest periods will be 6/1-6/6 (60-90% drier chnc) and 6-25 to 7-1 (40-60% drier chnc).
The CPC 3 month forecast centered on June 2020.
APR 28 - Initial look at June 2020 suggests an active MCS pattern from NW to SE centered across the upper Mississippi Valley region. Specifically Iowa, but also portions of Wisconsin. This pattern will evolve out of the May pattern with northwest flow. As annual moisture & +AMO runs up into the Great Lakes and interacts with the arctic circulation it should set the stage for active June.
Temperatures will be above average, perhaps well above average from the central plains into the lower great lakes. This also contributes to an active stormy pattern. Top three analog years include 2010, 2003, and 2007 (this forecast is based on the top 10).
The next question is how will July look? If June is active, typically July is less active and vise versa. It's also possible this pattern shifted back half a month so that it ends in Mid July? Not sure since this is my first attempt a summer forecast. Long range signals get weaker in summer.
This forecast is based on the four following assumptions:
- ONI staying positively neutral, not deviating much from it's current position
- PDO flip potentially. Currently a -PDO, but warm surge of water appears to be heading east towards the western North American coast. So somewhere in the summer we may see a flip
- Strongly positive AMO this summer(big driver)
- Strengthen -QBO
For all other smaller scale teleconnections I retreated towards neutral for June/July.