MON 11:48PM - FORECAST GOING WELL. Fixed grammar issues on previous update below.
MON 2:05PM - Latest trends are pulling back slightly on northern trend, lower snow amts in southern WI. Not too much changed from yesterdays snowfall prediction but did trim it down. I think dry air is going to be an issue on the northern edge of this system. May very well see a band of 5-7" in eastern IA/northern IL. Because that area is outside of WI, I'm going play the conservative side w/ 3-6" throughout the region. Heaviest accums will be across SW Iowa, E Neb.
SUN 10:18PM - A winter storm will track through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Over the past several runs a northward trend has been observed so confidence remains low on exact placement, however in a regional sense this appears to be a southern WI/northern IL snowfall event.
I'm using a 1-3" zone south of a La Crosse/Manitowoc line. 3-6" generally south of Madison. Based on 10-1 ratio. While Kuchera ratios show higher amounts...not willing to chase those yet. CONSERVATIVE. I stuck closer to the 12z EC in amts/placement. 00z(most recent) GFS/NAM/GDPS were further north. If this trend continues will need to increase amts.
The best potential for 6"+ still appears to be across Iowa and northern Illinois. Did not feel confident enough to add a intermediate zone between 3-6/6-12 yet. Some models are much snowier across Iowa than my map indicates.
Will wait for another model run and hope for more confidence.