Wisconsin Expecting Warmth, Storms for First Week Of May
Warm and active week ahead with multiple storm chances through Thursday. A weak cold front will push across Wisconsin early this week stalling in southern Wisconsin Weds/Thurs. Rain chances decrease north late in the week.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop in northern WI Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, some which may be strong. Not impressed nor unimpressed with strong storm potential Tuesday night. Tough call. Hail and gusty wind would be the primary threats should a strong storm develop. Timing is unfavorable for severe and it's very likely these storms will be elevated. Last year I said the same thing about a March setup that produced tornadoes (albeit with warm front trigger). Not going to stray to far from model forecast this time. Need to get into the groove.
Rain/storm chances increase south Weds/Thurs. Some uncertainty later in the week. Heavy rain could be in the cards with models suggesting 1-3" of rainfall accumulation by Thurs in the south. Strong/severe storms also on the mind. I think instability, moisture, and shear will be there to support strong/severe storms. Would like to see more organized upper level support. In the end the late week t-storm setups could easily be shunted into northern Illinois. On the other hand seeing medium range models further north bringing t-storms to central Wisconsin Wednesday. One of those situations were you let things cook and take another look tomorrow but the big picture is pretty clear. Rain & storms.
Temperatures are expected to be above/well above average this week.