Winter Storm Review - Feb 19-20, 2018
Forecast reviews are written mostly for myself to help improve future forecasts. I care deeply about the success and accuracy of my forecasts. I share my observations with you so we can learn together but also to demonstrate this process is more than just regurgitating a model forecast or taking somebody else's idea.
Not much to talk about this time as I've already started looking ahead toward late this week and weekend. Like the last storm, this storm was pretty stable in terms of location from start to finish. Early in the week I had a revelation about weather forecasting. Following that revelation the first thing I did was unlike all the National Weather Service pages. I tried to get rid of all the outside information that was polluting my own thought process. This was my first forecast with a new attitude and approach. 100% purely me and the forecast models.
This was the first image I posted on Thursday. A few facebookers were skeptical that maybe I was posting too early and understandably so. It was an opportunity to mix things up a little and create some buzz. I told myself it doesn't matter what other people think. Just do you and forecast what you see.
This was the final Monday morning map. I wasn't totally confident Monday morning but as the day wore on I felt like I did a great job.
Areas for Improvement
- I don't like the way timing went. In the middle of the forecast process Sunday I designed and implemented a new graph without testing. This did not perform well at first but improved on the second attempt. Improvements have already been made and adding something new again for next time.
- Feels like a missed opportunity where we could have pushed more.
I'm giving this one my first A.
This is the best I've felt following any storm this winter. Too bad it's late February lol. I need to continue to ignore the outside noise, focus on me, continue to improve my forecasts, and just forecast the weather. The important thing is to stack consistent success. From that I believe we can finally grow our community!
Sunday and Monday were the two biggest days ever for the website. I presume this was because the NWS and media were jazzing up the storm and folks were looking for information. It's amazing how far we've come from last year as we slowly build our storm chasing community!
I've learned that passion is a gift. You should NEVER shove it in a corner and play it safe. You need to give it room. The biggest stage. Take a risk. Let your passion lead you while what you think takes a backseat. People are counting on you to be who you are. There will be bumps in the road and you will fail sometimes, but ultimately you will find yourself in a much better place in the long term. And all those outside voices telling you to do something; IGNORE THEM.
Seriously, just do you and you will find your way. That's my belief anyway.
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