Wisconsin Weather

Thunderstorms Possible Tonight with Strong System

Jul 24 2018 9:20 PM CST| 0 Comments | Wisconsin | Weather Forecasting

Wisconsin Weather
Wisconsin Weather

Thunderstorms and rain showers will develop across central & northern Wisconsin tomorrow evening as a strong mid-level disturbance moves through. Strong to severe storms are possible. Thursday morning a colder airmass will push in following the rain keeping temps below average to end the week.

Another strong upper level low will rotate a potent shortwave through Wisconsin Wednesday night ahead of a cold front arriving Thursday morning. This will bring dynamics together for thunderstorms, perhaps strong to severe across central Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Weather
Updated outlook for tonight 9:00AM Wed

Thermodynamics are weak, yes... CAPE tall and skinny however dynamics are strong and will strengthen into the evening as it the shortwave pushes east. The setup is similar in composition to the Iowa tornado outbreak last week but weaker in terms of instability. I do not expect a tornado outbreak but tornadoes are possible. Less CAPE will bring parameters into balance. Wind shear looks supportive of severe weather with some veering. The overall picture looks capable of severe weather.

CIPS analogs were not that interesting, however those that were close showed at least a handful of severe reports. The July 13, 2004 event is a great match for wind fields but thermodynamic situation is different. So far only posted the forecast with a Strong T-storm Zone for a reason. Plenty of time to push up to severe if needed. Stay tuned.

925PM Update - i like the strong to severe wording for tomorrow based on 00z run. Not confident enough to go with full blown severe. Will plan to keep things as is with a slight northward expansion in our next outlook.


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