JAN WK3 - Active Weather; Turning Colder
By Justin Poublon
January 12, 2020 - 10:00 PM CST | 248 1
Two quick hitting systems will bring minor snow/wintry mix accumulations Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning. Colder air slides in from the west Wednesday night/Thursday.
It looks like we're moving into a colder pattern with below average temps. Not seeing any super major cold spikes yet. I think the jet stream is not amplified enough to bring the cold south into the country in any major or sustainable fashion. Since December it's been much colder north than south relative to average and I think that's symptomatic and likely to continue. The AO is on a large positive spike and progged to trend towards neutral after that. So for now not going to get on board with cold narrative. The pattern looks rather zonal and you can tell the arctic is bottled up. The MJO/tropics supports the opposite of cold as well. Pretty interesting stalemate. It's all relative I suppose and wind chills will likely get into the -20F or below range at times. Not seeing the polar vortex cold outbreaks of the last few years in forecast models yet.
Keeping our eyes on perhaps a bigger system for Friday. Plenty of action early in the week to worry about and you know how things have been lately so it might be best to wait another day or two on that. I have opened up a storm event on the members forecast you can read if you're curious. I will keep you updated! Have a GREAT week!