Heavy Flooding Rain Concern evolving for Southern Wisconsin Tonight
9/19 12Z convective models are more concerning with flooding heavy rain potential across the state late tonight into Thursday morning.
Based on latest information, we now expect several inches of heavy rainfall, locally as much as 3-6" by 7AM Thursday. The highest threat for flooding heavy rain will be along I-90 in Minnesota southeast into Wisconsin. Scattered rain showers or storms may continue across the region during the rest of the morning but focus will shift to northern Wisconsin on Thursday night.
Thunderstorms are possible during the day today but not expecting too much activity. Thunderstorms are far more likely Thursday morning. One or two strong storms with hail will be possible and locally heavy rain. Widespread severe weather is not expected.
The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch until 12PM on Thursday across west-central Wisconsin.
Here is the NAM forecast model simulated rain accumulation by 7AM Thursday.