Wisconsin Storm Updates
Latest Information

Wednesday Rain - Rain showers will move in this aft & early evening. Less than 0.5" rainfall accumulation. Snow showers possible overnight north.

Severe T-storms Possible - At 3:15PM - Small window over the next few hours for an isolated severe storm or two over far eastern WI. Large hail the primary threat. Overall concern remains low. Storms should move out quickly into Lake Michigan.

Did mention possibility of severe weather on this day a week ago, then removed it as models changed. Wish I'd stuck with it a little longer. 

Isolated T-Storms w/ hail - an isolated t-storm or two is crossing northern WI atm. Hail up to a quarter inch but mostly pea sized and lots of it. Path will take it near Ladysmith, Rib Lake, and Merrill. Possible that it continues into NE-WI.

Storm Chances? Monthly Forecasts Updated - I've create a new storm event for the middle of next week. Seeing an interesting pattern that could bring strong thunderstorms if everything comes together. Also April and May monthly forecasts updated

Personal note - March has been a rough month battling sickness in the household. Total lack of energy and creativity. Extra sleep seems to be helping. Today is the first day I feel like I'm getting better and hopefully I can carry over into tomorrow. Fingers crossed! Thank you for your patience!

Arctic Oscillation returns to neutral - The AO has been strongly positive since late December but recently we've seen it return to neutral for the first time since late January. Fitting that we seem to be in the midst of a stormy pattern.

Storm Update #1 - Raining pretty good along HWY 10 from Osseo to Stevens Point to north of Green Bay. Rainfall estimates over 0.5" in spots means forecast is on target. Some snow will mix in overnight in the northeast before ending...minor accums if anything. Quiet night in the south with a scattered rain shower. Have a great night!

SPC Convective T-Storm Outlooks - on the next website update will provide SPC convective outlook maps with links to full text. I haven't decided exactly where these maps will be... probably on a separate page. Will add to the live map. A few other things cooking too. Even though I make our own t-storm outlooks I think it's a better experience to have both.

Needed to get out of the house. Swollen streams in the area with snow dusting. Thinking about the farmers hoping they can get off to a better start this year. 

Snow likely overnight - latest models showing up to an inch or so in portions of central or even southern WI into early tomorrow AM. Could be similar to the light snow we saw earlier this week. Little to nothing across northern WI (away from the snow belt).

3:30PM Regional Update - the most active day we've had across the region in awhile. Severe thunderstorms possible across Iowa as storms currently in Nebraska shift east tonight. Still think it will be a near miss for Wisconsin on the strong/severe threat. Will keep an eye on far southern WI tonight anyway. For WI overall it's really the snow/rain activity coming from the west that will slide through tonight. An additional inch or two of snow could fall as far south as southern WI by early Friday morning.

T-storms approaching - Will be working through over the next few hours. Severe weather not expected with this round however cannot rule out small hail.

Rain arrives mid-day - Good Morning! Rain & storms will arrive during the mid-day hours and hang with us throughout the evening. Broken line of tstorms currently moving into Iowa. We're next in line.

Snow/Rain this morning - Snowing pretty good in spots around southern WI. 2.2" in Oshkosh so thinking about up to 3" based on that one single report I have. This morning snow will gradually end or turn to rain as the system slides east.

I discovered that the 1993-1998 files have several data issues while building the severe weather database today. I have another source I can pull from but requires so much more work. Frustrating.

Rain Band Narrows this Aft - It will narrow and intensify over central into northeast WI. The forecast for a strip of 0.4-0.7" is on target and will be found associated with this feature. No other concerns at this stage. Have a great day!

Storm events progress - This afternoon I've decided to finish a really interesting teleconnection project I started a couple weeks ago. I plan to finish the storm events db by Friday. I want to share all the work that goes into producing the storm events db in video log format. Very technical. It's a beast but think it will be fun to share the data science side.

April Forecast Updated - Based on latest trends made some big changes. Please see latest blog post for more info!

7:00AM temps - in the mid-upper 30s, near 40F southwest. Pretty warm to start. As the band of snow/mix passes through probably won't have much impact. A few locations reporting rain.

Projects this week - Adding a new yearly payment option is top priority. April 10 case study. Teleconnection research continued. Have a great week!

Account access will be restricted temporarily between 10:15 & 10:30 AM today as I push an update through. Thank you!

Pushed an update tonight that removed weekly forecasts. I'm reverting to the blog and video forecasts for that. Monthly forecasts will stay as is.

March Forecast Updated! - Talking latest trends in MJO. Eventual unraveling of the +AO. What that means for the Great Lakes. www.wisconsinwx.com/forecastMonthly

Tuesday Snow Slipping Away - perhaps one of the biggest model shifts I've seen in the final 72hrs. Even that 1-3" in southeast WI will be a struggle (see image).

I know I haven't been communicating really at all lately with all the projects going on, slow weather, distractions and that will change. I have a new communication strategy. Going to rename "Storm Updates" to "Latest Updates" and open it up to more than just real-time updates. Good news is the Storm Events system now has an identical audience targeting system as the recently deployed abovementioned latest updates tool. They are basically the same thing to you. To me two different systems, two different creative packages, two different notification styles merging into one communication stream. I've always worried about over communicating. But this feels like our bread and butter. 

Made a big change today. Storm event text and maps are now always public/free. I've had internal conflict for a long time, worried about which forecast info was free and what was member only. Now it's all free and I can get the communication flowing to social media without feeling guilty. Felt afraid to say too much. I don't feel as though I'm removing value. In the past the free blog served this function but we've evolved beyond that. Thought pay walling the storm events was the answer but it is not. I have a plan to do more member only stories, approach the whole thing differently. 

9.56 pushed live an hour ago. Working day and night since Wednesday on several things with several updates. Touched/Improved almost every page in the last month and feel it coming together. Very happy with where we stand today but exhausted. Schedule is totally messed up. Need to start producing more forecasts and content. I've enjoyed working in the moment as things come up within this slow weather pattern. Productive. I see a weakness or hole and I fix it immediately. Hammering things out quickly. In good shape going forward. 

I've risked everything to be here.

weekly forecasts updated this afternoon! Watching models for 2/24-2/26 timeframe with potential storm. It's was too early to get a read based on today's runs.

Snow continues tonight - snow continues as it has much of the day in southern WI. As much as 5.5" reported already in Evansville. The system is a bit disorganized with heavy snow in clusters here and there. It appears the heaviest snow came together slightly further south today. To the north a strong band is working into northwest WI that could drop and quick 1" or so. Snow will go through the rest of tonight ending in the early morning hours tomorrow. Be careful for slippery roads and travel tonight and tomorrow morning!

Burst of heavy snow - pushing south through eastern WI. Won't last long but during expect low visibilities. Could pick up a quick 0.5-1.0" also.