%3Cdiv%3ETHU%20AFT%20-%20Besides%20the%2018z%20NAM%20which%20was%20weaker/further%20south,%20really%20good%20agreement%20on%20the%20weekend%20storm%20on%20GFS/EC/CAN/12zNAM.%20Will%20have%20scattered%20precipitation%20on%20Saturday%20that%20could%20bring%20freezing%20rain/%20snow/%20rain.%20I%20think%20there%20will%20be%20some%20ice%20accumulation%20with%20that.%20A%20lull%20during%20the%20afternoon%20before%20the%20main%20event%20Saturday%20night%20into%20Sunday. %3C/div%3E%3Cdiv%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C/div%3E%3Cdiv%3EIt%20will%20be%20a%20narrow%20band%20of%20heavy%20snow%20developing%20out%20of%20a%20rain/freezing%20rain%20precipitation%20mode%20across%20west-central/northern%20Wisconsin%20with%20lighter%20amounts%20north.%20Rochester%20to%20Eau%20Claire%20to%20Kewneenaw%20Bay%20was%20a%20common%20trend%20today.%20I%20like%206-12%22%20right%20now%20even%20though%20models%20show%20potential%20for%20more;%20I%20will%20explain%20why%20later.%20Keeping%2012%22+%20amounts%20in%20upper%20Michigan.%20Will%20see%20about%20wrap%20around%20in%20central%20Wisconsin%20but%20I'm%20betting%20it%20will%20be%20relatively%20minor%20in%20comparison.%3C/div%3E%3Cdiv%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C/div%3E%3Cdiv%3EConcerned%20most%20about%20the%20potential%20for%20freezing%20rain.%20If%20models%20are%20correct%20we%20are%20going%20to%20have%20some%20issues%20with%20ice%20accumulations%20up%20to%200.5%22%20(1.0%22%20over%20Green%20Bay%20on%20the%20suspect%2018zNAM!).%20Power%20outages,%20tree%20damage,%20etc.%20Because%20wind%20gusts%20increase%20to%20around%2050%20MPH%20on%20Sunday%20putting%20stress%20on%20limbs.Yea..%20You%20can%20understand%20my%20concern.%20Freezing%20rain%20threat%20is%20delicate.%20This%20situation%20is%20more%20of%20a%20warm%20front%20than%20stationary%20boundary%20that%20works%20into%20northern%20Wisconsin...the%20precipitation%20models%20call%20freezing%20rain%20could%20fall%20as%20rain%20instead.%20No%20cold%20air%20reinforcement.%20Sure%20you%20have%20residual%20cold%20but%20it's%20not%20the%20same.%20It%20only%20takes%20a%20degree%20or%20two%20at%20the%20surface.%20I%20will%20give%20the%20models%20benefit%20of%20the%20doubt%20but%20not%20going%20all%20in.%20The%20only%20fall%20back%20would%20be%20top-down%20cooling%20and%20that%20happens%20on%20a%20local%20scale.%20Needs%20to%20be%20regional.%20Will%20wait%20another%20day.%3C/div%3E%3Cdiv%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C/div%3E%3Cdiv%3EHeavy%20rain%20(aka%20rain%20falling%20at%20a%20relatively%20intense%20rate)%20of%200.5-1.5%22%20common%20among%20the%20models.%20I%20feel%20with%20the%20dry%20slot%20cutting%20into%20southern%20Wisconsin%20Sunday%20morning%20I%20shouldn't%20get%20too%20carried%20away%20with%20denoting%20a%201%22+%20zone.%20This%20amount%20of%20rain%20may%20cause%20ponding%20in%20low%20areas%20due%20to%20snow%20cover%20and%20ground%20temps.%20Probably%20the%20least%20impactful%20of%20all%20hazards%20but%20those%20puddles%20will%20sneak%20up%20you. %3C/div%3E%3Cdiv%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C/div%3E%3Cdiv%3ESpeaking%20of%2050%20MPH%20winds,%20EC%20showing%20gusts%20to%2060%20mph%20(GFS%20weaker)%20on%20Sunday%20over%20the%20high%20points%20and%20open%20spaces%20(weaker%20north/central).%20Blowing%20snow.%20Tree%20damage.%20Just%20another%20of%20several%20hazards%20with%20this%20storm.%20I%20will%20hit%20this%20hard%20if%20trends%20continue;%20freezing%20rain%20or%20not.%3C/div%3E
Posts
Posts/Media not available