An inch or two of light snow is expected Monday morning and during the morning commute for some of us. This radar simulation is for 5AM. Light snow showers or drizzle will be possible during the afternoon with little to no accumulation. Colder Tuesday into Wednesday with a slight warming trend and more light snow chances later in the week.
T-2" observed this morning right on forecast. Another chance for 1-3" locally across southern Wisconsin today.
The afternoon round came together farther south than expected and the advisory busted. They issued too aggressively/early. Forecast models overall have performed great. Its the small scale features which have not been positioned correctly. Will take our lumps now and note this heading into the heart of winter. Perhaps starting with placing less confidence on short range models.
Having trouble with the blog engine on mobile tonight and can't fix until tomorrow, so sharing this here now. An early look at Wednesday morning reveals our next chance for snow. I think model simulations are bullish in terms of QPF. This could be compensated for by higher snow to liquid ratios? Potential for lake enhancement along lk Michigan. Want to see overnight runs before getting head over heels.
12Z models in agreement on low track across southwest Wisconsin thru Wednesday. This would bring the most snow across the central or northeast. NAM today showing QPF 0.4-0.8", NAMNEST 0.3-0.7", and GFS at 0.2-0.5". Snow ratios will be in excess of 11-1. I think the GFS is most realistic. The NAM is hinting at the snow bandy characteristics of the event, that some *spots* could be in excess of 7". Question is where??
Strange burst of snow found it's way into the neighborhood overcoming the dry air. Every run except the hopwrf I've looked at since the 18z has trended slightly north with the heaviest snows tomorrow. Closer to an axis that goes through Kaukauna or Wrightstown. Still waiting for precip to break out across Minnesota, though I wouldn't say it's behind schedule yet. Exciting times!
Do not feel good about 3-6" forecast in NE WI. Many places between 6-8", the potential for which was well advertised by models despite having the wrong location. The decision making process needs to be balanced between human and forecast model. Too much human for me on this one.Â
Just finished with all the bug fixes and adjustments following the latest update and there were several. Planning to add a few new things on the next round but the dev schedule will be more relaxed this winter. The website is coming together nicely! Will have to start recruiting people once the community section gets going. This should be a fun and welcoming place for everyone interested in weather! Slowly but surely we will get there.
Flurries possible tonight into tomorrow. 1-2" expected for central Wisconsin late Fri PM into Sat AM. It was at this point on Monday where the Wednesday system went bananas. I don't think that will be an issue this time.