Laminar piece associated with cloud development west of Oshkosh. I'm betting there is low level boundary underneath.
If you look closely there is a tiny cluster of wave clouds. Never seen these before
I am concerned about severe weather on Sunday across central Wisconsin. This could be a significant event. Will explain in greater detail via the blog. If you are a registered member you should always have access to premium content. Make sure you visit the account page and click "Save" at the bottom.Â
It is the 18Z run, but the NAM for Sunday across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin is ridiculous. Without too much knee jerk and several runs to go; the capping inversion helps keep additional development under control while focusing energy through a single area. This could mean strong or long lived tornado potential.Models also kept stationary front slightly further north. This is serious stuff.Â
My thoughts for the next 48 hours from storm chasing perspective: I'm ho-hum about today/tonight. But heading out to Eau Claire area anyway and hopefully things light up. Focused mainly on Sunday. This morning model runs became uncertain about whether upper level support and possible MCS will move through at the best time for Wisconsin. In otherwords current models show upper support rolling though Wisconsin at around 1PM. This won't allow things to tie together and the setup becomes awkwardly disjointed between mid day and late afternoon setups, the late day one I'm wouldn't be thrilled about because of inversion. I'm not buying it yet, sometimes we see things happen close to the day 3 prog. I stand by my word that if things come together tomorrow, there will be a significant weather event. Chances of that are best when instability, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb all line up. Best way to approach it is to get out there and figure it out later. Trying to bottle up all the ideas into neat categories could cause you to miss a major event because you thought MCS, and what actually happened was dominant supercell. Â
Seeing reports of Non-storm related wind damage in extreme northern WI. today. Anyone on here in those areas seeing this? Please share...