WEDS 12/23 - 2:45pm CT
Facebook live video discussing the latest on the storm.
WED 12/23 - 8:51am CT
Increased snow total forecast in northwest WI as recent snowier model trend continues. Blizzard like conditions along WI/MN border tonight. Next update around noon.
TUE DEC 22 - 9:53pm CT
Watching this system for several days but haven't felt the need to post a forecast. A few recent runs - including most of the 12z & 00z short range guidance - warrants a closer look for snow accumulation potential in NW Wisconsin. For Wisconsin as a whole, a chance for rain/snow showers between WEDS & early THU AM with little accumulation - except NW WI.
Big picture - Strengthening low pressure system associated with large scale deepening upper level trough will lead to organization & intensification of a comma head of snow across far NW Wisconsin. Given the somewhat dynamic nature of the system, it wouldn't surprise me to see several inches of snow (perhaps near 12" locally) in the vicinity of a line from Minneapolis to Duluth MN.
Recent trends have trended colder w/ more snow for NW WI, especially short range models. Instead of 1-3", more 2-4" or 3-5" amts. This is at odds with several days of warmer & further west progs from the GFS/EC. Didn't want to act too aggressively w/ this system. With likelihood of dry slot pulling into the backside of the low in western WI. Always seems to lower totals near to the low track.
Additionally, wind gusts will be on the increase Wednesday night...increasing from south to north across Wisconsin into the 30-40 MPH range. Given that NW WI will be under the surface low track...weaker/calm winds will occur for much of WED.
A cold front will sweep through for Thursday, coldest air of the season thus far with single digits likely (colder NW WI with fresh snow). Windchills will dip below zero Thursday morning.
I'll check back tomorrow afternoon and post an update if needed. Thanks. -JP
8:56PM CT - Working on forecast. Check back later. Thanks.