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Wisconsin Weather

DEC 12, 2020 | Winter Storm Ends this Afternoon

LAST UPDATE : DEC 12, 2020

FRI 12:56PM CT

No major changes and previous forecast mostly on target. Sticking with 3-6" zone, added another zone to lower Michigan. Short range models lowered from 00z run, 12GFS snowier so they almost met in the middle. Locally higher amounts possible...some models are snowier in the Kettle Moraine area on Saturday as the system deepens. Storm track with SLIGHT northward shift last 24 hours. Warmer air near Lake Michigan in SE Wisconsin & along WI/IL border likely to reduce snow amounts. Snow starts tonight, most of the accumulation comes Saturday AM. Stay tuned for additional forecast information. Click here for blog post. Thanks! -JP

Snow accumulations of 3-6
Snow accumulations of 3-6" in southern Wisconsin by 6PM Saturday

THU 10:36 PM CT

Looking at evening runs (less EC) it appears the GFS/CAN are the weakest. Storm track mostly the same still. NAM & all of the short range are snowier, most of the guidance supports at least a 3-6" zone atm. Hesitant to go any further than that right now, prefer to balance it out. Went ahead and added the 3-6" zone back in....lines up with initial thoughts again so not much of an update. Will post my final forecast FRI afternoon.


THU 12:24PM CT

Taking a small step back today. Models are pretty stable on storm track. They seem to be settling on the weaker, less snowy scenario. I updated the forecast with a narrow 2-5" max snow zone from Dubuque to Milwaukee. Some models do have locally higher amounts but will wait for more model runs before taking things further. Sharp gradient on the northern fringe.

Updated maps and start/end times as all models showing quicker ending...by 6PM SAT PM. No vlog today but will plan for one tomorrow.


WEDS 2:34PM CT

VLOG (see below for text discussion)

WEDS 12:13 PM CT

Moderate strength low pressure system will track from Missouri to the southern tip of Lake Michigan on Saturday. Rain/snow mix showers will develop Friday night in southern Wisconsin with the main winter storm event during the day on Saturday.

Model consistency is OK on latest runs. Earlier progs were bouncing around considerably. 12zEC is coldest/furthest south with narrow snow swath through SE WI. NAM (84hr) is warmest/furthest north, considered an outlier. GFS is close to EC but slightly further north. GFS ensembles *appear to favor* northward trend and the last few model runs we've seen a subtle northward creep of the storm track. Three days out but hopefully the track is solidifying. Confidence is typical for this forecast period.

Assuming no major track shifts; the event will begin Friday night in southern Wisconsin starting with a lighter/scattered rain/snow mix...minor impacts. The storm system will better organize on Saturday with a higher likelihood of accumulating snow developing. Snowfall amounts vary between models; some higher and lower. I like the 3-6" snowfall range for starters along a narrow axis in southern WI by EARLY SUN AM. Latest models have been trending snowier. Will see how things evolve and push additional info as needed.

Winds will be on the increase Saturday night but unlikely they will reach blizzard levels.

For the rest of Wisconsin (the northern half), no significant weather aside from increasing winds and falling temperatures. If the system trends north then obviously that would change things.

Forecast Maps

Snow


Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Winter Storm
Start
FRI 12:00 PM - Dec 11, 2020
End
SAT 6:00 PM - Dec 12, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

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Posts

winter storm is ending, light snow for a couple more hours in the far east. Storm total snowfall on the high end of forecast...9" report near Middleton.
Snow reports showing well this morning with a couple 5" amts from Dubuque to Madison area. More snow will fall today in Southern WI with the heaviest accums in the east. The best snow bands are slipping sligjtly further north this AM....as far as Green Bay and up the lake Michigan shoreline where the NWS extended the Advisory. Snow ends before 6PM tonight.

Archives

December 11, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

December 12, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

Storm Reports

SNOW (149)
SNOW
SNOW
2 S MIDDLETON, WI
10.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 WSW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
9.6"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNE VERONA, WI
9.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE MIDDLETON, WI
9.0"
SNOW
SNOW
OREGON, WI
9.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
8.7"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
8.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N FITCHBURG, WI
8.0"
SNOW
SNOW
6 ESE BLANCHARDVILLE, WI
8.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
7.6"
SNOW
SNOW
VERONA, WI
7.5"
SNOW
SNOW
MONROE, WI
7.5"
SNOW
SNOW
GREENBUSH, WI
7.3"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNE MONONA, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WSW WATERTOWN, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
FITCHBURG, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE MAPLE BLUFF, WI
6.4"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ESE BELLEVILLE, WI
6.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW BEAVER DAM, WI
6.2"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NW WEST BEND, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
SINSINAWA, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
MCFARLAND, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
6 ENE WATERLOO, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
BEAVER DAM, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 N DEERFIELD, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SSW SOUTH WAYNE, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WNW BEAVER DAM, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
CLYMAN, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
PLATTEVILLE, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
MAYVILLE, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W JOHNSON CREEK, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N DEERFIELD, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NW FITCHBURG, WI
5.4"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW MIDDLETON, WI
5.3"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NE DODGEVILLE, WI
5.3"
SNOW
SNOW
2 W BEAVER DAM, WI
5.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W PLATTEVILLE, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W MONROE, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NE MCFARLAND, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
MAZOMANIE, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 SE DODGEVILLE, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
6 SE DODGEVILLE, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
THERESA, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N MONROE, WI
4.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NE VERONA, WI
4.8"
SNOW
SNOW
HORICON, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NE DODGEVILLE, WI
4.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S COLUMBUS, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW LAKE MILLS, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSE MOUNT CALVARY, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSE SAUK CITY, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSE BLACK EARTH, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LANCASTER, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
COLUMBUS, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SW MIDDLETON, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
DE FOREST, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
EDGERTON, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
WATERLOO, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NW BURTON, WI
3.6"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNW NEW GLARUS, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 W ST NAZIANZ, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E COTTAGE GROVE, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
FENNIMORE, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
CAMPBELLSPORT, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SSE SULLIVAN, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 S WINDSOR, WI
3.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNE WATERTOWN, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S ROCHESTER, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
FOND DU LAC, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
JOHNSON CREEK, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
MUSCODA, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
NEWBURG, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNE MAPLE BLUFF, WI
2.9"
SNOW
SNOW
3 S SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
2.8"
SNOW
SNOW
DARLINGTON, WI
2.8"
SNOW
SNOW
JANESVILLE, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NE MAPLE BLUFF, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSE STOUGHTON, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W ST. PETER, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW WATERTOWN, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW WEST BEND, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW HARTFORD, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ESE SOUTH BYRON, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 W WEST BEND, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
5 ENE COLUMBUS, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
7 SW PORTAGE, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
ARGYLE, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LODI, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
REEDSVILLE, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
RICHLAND CENTER, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N OCONOMOWOC, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N RICHFIELD, WI
2.0"
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW KEWASKUM, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSW JOHNSON CREEK, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW ALLENTON, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W ALLENTON, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E MERTON, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
EASTMAN, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WSW ROCK SPRINGS, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
DENMARK, WI
1.7"
SNOW
SNOW
6 E BARABOO, WI
1.6"
SNOW
SNOW
ST. PETER, WI
1.6"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSE HUBERTUS, WI
1.6"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SE PORTAGE, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 S FORT ATKINSON, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NE GERMANTOWN, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S WATERTOWN, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
WATERTOWN, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
WEST BEND, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
BENTON, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
4 WNW GOTHAM, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ENE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.4"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SE PRINCETON, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE MERTON, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
3 W JANESVILLE, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
ELKHORN, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
OMRO, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
ASHWAUBENON, WI
1.1"
SNOW
SNOW
BROWN DEER, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
CHILTON, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 WSW HOWARDS GROVE, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LEDGEVIEW, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
PELL LAKE, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NW WAUKESHA, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SE SULLIVAN, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N MUKWONAGO, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N REEDSBURG, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE JACKSON, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ESE BROWNS LAKE, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ESE MONTELLO, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ESE BELOIT, WI
0.9"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSW BELOIT, WI
0.9"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SE EAGLE, WI
0.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E GREEN LAKE, WI
0.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW LAC LA BELLE, WI
0.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW OKAUCHEE LAKE, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW NEW BERLIN, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
PALMYRA, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
ELROY, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 W LA VALLE, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WSW BROOKFIELD, WI
0.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S DE SOTO, WI
0.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W OCONOMOWOC, WI
0.2"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE WHITEWATER, WI
0.1"