NWS ALERT (2) FLOOD WARNING
  • News
  • 7-Day
  • Updates
  • Storms
  • Monthly
Wisconsin Weather

AUG 24, 2020 | T-storms, Heavy Rain Possible in Central Wisconsin Overnight

LAST UPDATE : AUG 24, 2020

MON 7:13 AM - Narrowed the STRONG zone to focus on central WI. Storms will likely cluster up while hitting generally the same areas overnight.

As for severe weather...obviously cannot rule out a strong/severe storm. Latest models have initiation really late but also don't complex it out...favoring more training of cells or small clusters. Probably not a huge deal overall.

Felt confident enough to add a heavy rain threat zone across central WI (see maps). A few places may see upwards of 2.0". If it takes place squarely across central WI then flash flooding threat will be minimized...it's been dry and the sandy soil will soak it right up. We need some rain.


SUN 9:21PM - latest models trending south, more inline with Minneapolis region. Adjusted map to reflect latest developments. This doesn't appear to be a widespread event...scattered storms beginning with cellular development over MN spreading east-SE overnight(weakening probably). Will update tomorrow AM.


SUN 9:21 AM - Strong to severe t-storms are possible within a large STRONG zone across northern Wisconsin Monday night into early Tues AM. Uncertainty regarding the evolution into a complex...perhaps storm coverage remains more scattered? If storm coverage is limited...the threat will be less widespread.

This setup is typical of a complex of storms originating over western WI and pushing across northern WI into northeast WI overnight. Forcing coming from the southern edge of a potent/shallow upper level trough in strengthening & changing upper level pattern. Instability pool builds during the day...warm front laying W->E and thermodynamics are good enough. Initial development likely in the NW WI region likely to be cellular and it wouldn't surprise me if one or two were severe. The question is how will late MON convection evolve overnight as it moves east? I have to assume it will complex out but that doesn't mean it will. Extended the STRONG zone right through NE WI because that's typically how this goes.

Early day isolated t-storm convection possible. NAM high res refires isolated t-storm activity over Door County/extreme northeast WI during the afternoon. Not sure about that as NAM/GFS place greater emphasis on convection moving out of NW WI.

Getting ahead of it now. Low end event still, could be worse. Will see how it looks Monday morning as we get closer to the event.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain
0.5-1.0"
1-2"
2-3"
3-6"
6-10"
10"+

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Strong T-Storms, Heavy Rain
Start
MON 6:00 PM - Aug 24, 2020
End
TUE 9:00 AM - Aug 25, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Comments

Write comment here...
Add Media

Posts

Right turn? Thunderstorms last night took a hard right turn into southern WI. This happens as the updrafts backbuild towards the strongest instability...in this case storms were pulled south & west. Made me chuckle when compared to the outlook. Mother nature still has a sense of humor.
severe warned cell cluster diving into southern WI. Taking the best instability with it. Not over for east central WI yet.

Archives

August 24, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

August 25, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (10)
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
DE FOREST, WI
58 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
1 SW DARIEN, WI
50 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 E PORTAGE, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
2 SW DOYLESTOWN, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
EDGERTON, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
6 SSE WHITEWATER, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
WHITEWATER, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
WINDSOR, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 S MILTON, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
LAKE GENEVA, WI
LARGE HAIL (22)
HAIL
HAIL
WESTFIELD, WI
1.5"
HAIL
HAIL
2 S BERLIN, WI
1.25"
HAIL
HAIL
3 NW NEKOOSA, WI
1.25"
HAIL
HAIL
3 S STRATFORD, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
3 NNE TUNNEL CITY, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
2 SSE EAU CLAIRE, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
2 SSW ALTOONA, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
4 N ENDEAVOR, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
4 SSW BROOKS, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
2 E NEKOOSA, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
6 S FALL CREEK, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
BIG FLATS, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
ELKHORN, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
LOYAL, WI
0.88"
HAIL
HAIL
1 N PARDEEVILLE, WI
0.75"
HAIL
HAIL
4 ENE NEW ROME, WI
0.75"
HAIL
HAIL
4 N PLAINVILLE, WI
0.7"
HAIL
HAIL
3 ENE WHITE CREEK, WI
0.7"
HAIL
HAIL
10 NNE GRAND MARSH, WI
0.7"
HAIL
HAIL
CAMBRIA, WI
0.7"
HAIL
HAIL
4 SW STRATFORD, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
1 SW DARIEN, WI
0.25"
HEAVY RAIN (65)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
RIPON, WI
4.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 E FRIESLAND, WI
4.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N RANDOLPH, WI
4.32"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
FOX LAKE, WI
4.16"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NNE MARQUETTE, WI
2.72"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 E LOMIRA, WI
2.67"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSW BEAVER DAM, WI
2.67"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
2.63"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 ENE ALLENTON, WI
2.57"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 N MENOMONEE FALLS, WI
2.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SE WEST BEND, WI
2.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PIPERSVILLE, WI
2.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MAYVILLE, WI
2.38"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SW MARKESAN, WI
2.22"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 NW KEKOSKEE, WI
2.21"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WSW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
2.14"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N RICHFIELD, WI
2.14"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ESE HARTFORD, WI
2.02"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 NW MILWAUKEE, WI
2.01"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 SE NEKOOSA, WI
1.96"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 ENE BUTLER, WI
1.96"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
1.96"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SE THERESA, WI
1.92"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE SAINT FRANCIS, WI
1.86"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 SSE WHITEWATER, WI
1.83"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 ENE COLUMBUS, WI
1.82"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SW NEKOOSA, WI
1.81"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SW NEOSHO, WI
1.76"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE JOHNSON CREEK, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 N FOND DU LAC, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N PARDEEVILLE, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SW FOND DU LAC, WI
1.71"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 N GREENFIELD, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S LANNON, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 ENE GREENDALE, WI
1.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
BUTLER, WI
1.67"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ESE MONTELLO, WI
1.65"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W ALLENTON, WI
1.65"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 E WAUWATOSA, WI
1.64"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE HUBERTUS, WI
1.63"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SE JACKSON, WI
1.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW REDGRANITE, WI
1.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE WEST ALLIS, WI
1.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
6 WNW PALMYRA, WI
1.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SLINGER, WI
1.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE THIENSVILLE, WI
1.45"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SW GERMANTOWN, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.39"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S BUTLER, WI
1.39"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
HOWARDS GROVE, WI
1.37"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
NEWBURG, WI
1.32"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE JEFFERSON, WI
1.29"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNE JUNEAU, WI
1.27"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 E MERTON, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNE OMRO, WI
1.21"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE WATERTOWN, WI
1.17"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CEDARBURG, WI
1.13"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE MERTON, WI
1.11"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 E MERTON, WI
1.11"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S GERMANTOWN, WI
1.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
FORT ATKINSON, WI
1.08"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WSW ELKHORN, WI
1.05"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 N DEERFIELD, WI
1.0"
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
OSHKOSH, WI
0.95"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
OMRO, WI
0.93"