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Wisconsin Weather

AUG 7, 2020 | Severe T-storms Possible Tonight NW WI

LAST UPDATE : AUG 7, 2020

FRI 1:10PM - models in a little better agreement, fairly certain complex of storms with damaging wind gust potential likely over northwest WI overnight. Questionable how deep into WI the threat will go, my guess is NOT MUCH. Not sure if the complex will stick to northern WI or push into SW WI? Makes a difference for Sat PM forecast; if the FRI PM complex dives south SAT will be cloudier, cooler, less threat for storms. We'll see. Stay tuned for short range updates later this evening.

Complex of storms possible in NW WI tonight
Complex of storms possible in NW WI tonight

THU 9PM - Short range models agree on bringing a complex of thunderstorms through the Minneapolis, MN region Friday night. GFS takes a complex further north thru Duluth, MN. I'm not very confident either way with this event (+weekend). Most of WI will not have any issues on Friday night. Kinda of the same exact area that has gotten most storms this year. Severe threat is for damaging wind gusts and heavy rain primarily.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Severe T-Storms
Start
FRI 6:00 PM - Aug 07, 2020
End
SAT 6:00 AM - Aug 08, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

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Models trending more aggressive with t-storm activity SAT AM over northern & central WI. Remnants of overnight complex. Timing is poor for severe wx but at least will mention the chance of storms. Gradually weakening during the day.
Small cluster of thunderstorms continues through northern MN, set to head into northwest WI tonight. You can tell by the yellow SVR TSTORM WATCH that more development was expected into the Minneapolis region. Simply hasn't happened to this point and it's looking more likely that the existing storm cluster to head due east into far northern WI. A few damaging wind gusts overnight.
I've never waited until the last minute on so many events like I have in 2020. Storms have favored Minnesota and NW WI. I won't put THE ENTIRE STATE on blast if only a small percentage is potentially impacted. Low certainty. Slow year overall. I'm worried one will sneak through like Aug 2013. When you are least suspecting, it comes and need the message to get across. Miss miss miss, hit.
Models seem to be struggling on tstorm chances this weekend. Still think best chance for storms will be Sunday night or early Monday morning statewide with cold front. Just bizzare that latest models showing nothing SAT PM with heat/instability pool developing. Best chances north throughout the weekend. Some short range models sparse for SUN PM too. Dont want to rule out anything right now.

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Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (1)
MARINE TSTM WIND
MARINE TSTM WIND
1 N PORT WING, WI
28 MPH
LARGE HAIL (2)
HAIL
HAIL
WARRENS, WI
0.88"
HAIL
HAIL
1 WSW WARRENS, WI
0.25"
HEAVY RAIN (11)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 N LAKE NEBAGAMON, WI
3.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WSW SUPERIOR, WI
2.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE BRUSSELS, WI
2.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SUPERIOR, WI
1.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GILE, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ALGOMA, WI
1.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NNE SPIRIT FALLS, WI
1.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
STURGEON BAY, WI
1.06"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ENE ANTIGO, WI
0.94"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 ENE RHINELANDER, WI
0.89"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW MERRILL, WI
0.85"
OTHER (1)
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
10 E SOLON SPRINGS, WI