TUE 10:40AM - Echoing the same thoughts as previous updates. Video below
MON 11:00 PM - dont want to overstate the overall threat. I think maps from this morning are in good shape. 00z models on target still. Looks like maybe a couple strong to severe storms in northern, central, or southwest WI. Will reassess in the AM.
MORNING - A decaying complex of storms is possible in northwest Wisconsin overnight/Tuesday morning due to MON PM convection coming out of MN. Some models are much weaker or absent(EC)...I think there will be something. Parameters do weaken quickly. Perhaps even a neat shelf cloud along the gust front? I'm not concerned about severe weather with that.
MID-DAY/AFT/EVENING - There will be some form of weak isolated/scattered rain shower chance over Wisconsin throughout the day. Slightly complicated situation; uncertainty with how far east (or even if) morning convection makes it. EC with no morning convection has bulk of afternoon redevelopment roughly from Winona (MN) to Land O' Lakes. Models generally agree despite different handling of the AM. Isolated/scattered t-storm development will occur. GFS has been consistent for a more organized event in central WI or northern WI. This event has some substance.
SEVERE THREAT - Assuming morning convection is NOT TOO CRAZY...will have threat for a couple strong to severe storms in central or northern WI. Slightly drier boundary layer vs. recent events(OK); weak/moderate NARROW instability axis. Good veering;
weak OK shear magnitude (~35kt effective). Everything in good proportion (shear vs. instability) suggests a couple organized updrafts. Good forcing. Wind fields look good. NAM is pretty aggressive with parameters and intriguing. I do believe a weak tornado is possible. Again, assuming morning convection doesn't ruin it. I'll be out there and like the way this event looks. Reminds me of my WI tornado intercept in 2013 with a stationary/slow moving cold front in the exact same place.
Not a high profile event but something to watch for.