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Wisconsin Weather

JUL 14, 2020 | Strong/Severe T-storms Possible Today

LAST UPDATE : JUL 14, 2020

TUE 10:40AM - Echoing the same thoughts as previous updates. Video below


MON 11:00 PM - dont want to overstate the overall threat. I think maps from this morning are in good shape. 00z models on target still. Looks like maybe a couple strong to severe storms in northern, central, or southwest WI. Will reassess in the AM.


MON 9:30AM

MORNING - A decaying complex of storms is possible in northwest Wisconsin overnight/Tuesday morning due to MON PM convection coming out of MN. Some models are much weaker or absent(EC)...I think there will be something. Parameters do weaken quickly. Perhaps even a neat shelf cloud along the gust front? I'm not concerned about severe weather with that.

MID-DAY/AFT/EVENING - There will be some form of weak isolated/scattered rain shower chance over Wisconsin throughout the day. Slightly complicated situation; uncertainty with how far east (or even if) morning convection makes it. EC with no morning convection has bulk of afternoon redevelopment roughly from Winona (MN) to Land O' Lakes. Models generally agree despite different handling of the AM. Isolated/scattered t-storm development will occur. GFS has been consistent for a more organized event in central WI or northern WI. This event has some substance.

T-storms likely Tuesday; some could become strong to severe
T-storms likely Tuesday; some could become strong to severe

SEVERE THREAT - Assuming morning convection is NOT TOO CRAZY...will have threat for a couple strong to severe storms in central or northern WI. Slightly drier boundary layer vs. recent events(OK); weak/moderate NARROW instability axis. Good veering; weak OK shear magnitude (~35kt effective). Everything in good proportion (shear vs. instability) suggests a couple organized updrafts. Good forcing. Wind fields look good. NAM is pretty aggressive with parameters and intriguing. I do believe a weak tornado is possible. Again, assuming morning convection doesn't ruin it. I'll be out there and like the way this event looks. Reminds me of my WI tornado intercept in 2013 with a stationary/slow moving cold front in the exact same place.

Not a high profile event but something to watch for.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Strong T-Storms, Severe T-Storms
Start
TUE 12:00 AM - Jul 14, 2020
End
WED 12:00 AM - Jul 15, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

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Posts

On the road. Heading to Eau Claire, adjustments from there.
Scattered storms will move into NW WI overnight. A severe storm is possible but gradual weakening is expected. Watch in MN NOT extended to the east & storm reports marginal. Not too concerned atm. Tstorms possible throughout tomorrow.
WEDS - Keeping an eye on Illinois. Interesting 850mb flow pattern from 12zNAM. Situation is complicated by morning convection. Plenty of uncertainty. Could see this event surge as we get closer given wind fields. I will chase it if setup comes together in the northern half of IL.

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July 14, 2020

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July 15, 2020

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Storm Reports

TORNADO & FUNNEL CLOUD (1)
FUNNEL CLOUD
FUNNEL CLOUD
3 N BEACH CORNERS, WI
WIND GUSTS (5)
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
6 W SPRING GREEN, WI
53 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
RHINELANDER, WI
46 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
MILLADORE, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
AUGUSTA, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 NW AUGUSTA, WI
LARGE HAIL (1)
HAIL
HAIL
MILLADORE, WI
0.88"
HEAVY RAIN (37)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
OWEN, WI
5.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE MEDFORD, WI
4.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WITHEE, WI
4.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
HEAFFORD JUNCTION, WI
4.35"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW AUGUSTA, WI
4.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S RHINELANDER, WI
3.57"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
RHINELANDER, WI
3.16"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W MEDFORD, WI
3.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNE DORCHESTER, WI
3.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NW MILAN, WI
2.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE ABBOTSFORD, WI
2.55"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N ATHENS, WI
2.49"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
7 NNE HAMBURG, WI
2.43"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NW ATHENS, WI
2.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SUMMIT LAKE, WI
2.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WAUSAU, WI
2.05"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NE LUBLIN, WI
2.03"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SW SAINT JOSEPH, WI
2.02"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
LUBLIN, WI
1.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW TOWNSEND, WI
1.83"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW DANCY, WI
1.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SE HARSHAW, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 ENE RHINELANDER, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNE STETSONVILLE, WI
1.64"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSE MC NAUGHTON, WI
1.58"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNE WAUSAU, WI
1.54"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
READSTOWN, WI
1.54"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ANTIGO, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNE CHELSEA, WI
1.39"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N SISTER BAY, WI
1.33"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MERRILL, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MONDOVI, WI
1.16"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE MOON, WI
1.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE MEDFORD, WI
1.09"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ESE ATHELSTANE, WI
1.02"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE HOLMEN, WI
0.85"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW ONALASKA, WI
0.4"
OTHER (7)
FLOOD
FLOOD
4 W WILLARD, WI
FLOOD
FLOOD
3 S LA CROSSE, WI
FLOOD
FLOOD
3 W WITHEE, WI
FLOOD
FLOOD
MERRILL, WI
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
4 WNW LONGWOOD, WI
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
3 W DORCHESTER, WI
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
3 W LONGWOOD, WI