THU 11:18AM - Decided to add a TARGET zone back into southern WI just to highlight greats odds of strong to severe storms today/tonight.
WEDS 9:30PM - Going to remove the SEVERE zone from southwest WI and stick with broad STRONG for Wisconsin. Want to pull back given the low certainty. Will reevaluate in the AM.
WEDS 11:00AM - Uncertainty regarding where the outflow/gust front from morning storms ends up but appears to wash out somewhere across southern WI. Additional uncertainty regarding t-storm complex moving in from Iowa towards southern WI during the mid-day hours. What will that become?
A weak 500mb short wave will provide broad forcing for numerous cells by late afternoon across S & central WI. NAM is stronger like usual. Moisture & instability return quickly following morning outflow from the north. Wind fields and shear are WEAK but favorably veered. Thermodynamics are good, moderately strong. Environment is convoluted by morning outflow.
Due to uncertainties, broad forcing, and numerous cells (convective interference)...prefer to use a broad STRONG zone across Wisconsin. I mention isolated strong potential in the north. SEVERE for southwest WI with t-storm complex arriving mid-day. Damaging winds are the primary threat due to weak organization and tendency towards outflow. Will be keeping a close eye. I would not be surprised to see one or two severe storms or clusters. Probably severe with mid-day complex coming out of Iowa? Stay tuned.
Chance for rain will linger into Friday AM as the system is slow to move off.