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JUL 9, 2020 | THURSDAY - T-storms Likely

LAST UPDATE : JUL 9, 2020

THU 11:18AM - Decided to add a TARGET zone back into southern WI just to highlight greats odds of strong to severe storms today/tonight.

THU 10:46AM


WEDS 9:30PM - Going to remove the SEVERE zone from southwest WI and stick with broad STRONG for Wisconsin. Want to pull back given the low certainty. Will reevaluate in the AM.


WEDS 11:00AM - Uncertainty regarding where the outflow/gust front from morning storms ends up but appears to wash out somewhere across southern WI. Additional uncertainty regarding t-storm complex moving in from Iowa towards southern WI during the mid-day hours. What will that become?

Thursday t-storms will be numerous across Wisconsin; some could be strong especially across southwest WI.
Thursday t-storms will be numerous across Wisconsin; some could be strong especially across southwest WI.

A weak 500mb short wave will provide broad forcing for numerous cells by late afternoon across S & central WI. NAM is stronger like usual. Moisture & instability return quickly following morning outflow from the north. Wind fields and shear are WEAK but favorably veered. Thermodynamics are good, moderately strong. Environment is convoluted by morning outflow.

Due to uncertainties, broad forcing, and numerous cells (convective interference)...prefer to use a broad STRONG zone across Wisconsin. I mention isolated strong potential in the north. SEVERE for southwest WI with t-storm complex arriving mid-day. Damaging winds are the primary threat due to weak organization and tendency towards outflow. Will be keeping a close eye. I would not be surprised to see one or two severe storms or clusters. Probably severe with mid-day complex coming out of Iowa? Stay tuned.

Chance for rain will linger into Friday AM as the system is slow to move off.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Strong T-Storms
Start
THU 6:00 AM - Jul 09, 2020
End
FRI 12:00 AM - Jul 10, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Posts

MONTHLY FORECASTS - Updated today 7/10/2020 through SEP 2020. Had to wait on NOAA error preventing data download/access. Thanks!
JUN MONTHLY REANALYSIS - was very good! How does it work? Reforecast previous month precip and temp trends based on actual monthly values for teleconnections. This helps isolated the forecast method to say that If I were able to correctly predict teleconnection indexes; it's possible to forecast trends months ahead. Always some uncertainty; for example what happened with AO in Nov 2019.
numerous thunderstorms continue across southern WI. Some are strong or severe with strong wind gusts, heavy rain. Large cluster of cells now entering SW WI will push east this afternoon.
Severe T-storm threat will continue for at least a few more hours. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain the primary threats. Cell in Douglas county heading east looks vicious. Stay safe! Gust front will push off this activity into the rest of northern WI overnight.
A couple t-storms slipping through central WI thanks to an old OFB into strong instability. Not present on the models but there nonetheless. Possible these storms continue...also possible they fall apart.
Severe weather has been decreasing in Wisconsin year over year.

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July 9, 2020

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July 10, 2020

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Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (21)
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
2 WSW NORTH BAY, WI
68 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
PRAIRIE DU SAC, WI
60 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
2 N OCONOMOWOC, WI
50 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
WAUSAU, WI
46 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
MARSHFIELD, WI
41 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
STODDARD 5NNE, WI
30 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
3 WNW WIND POINT, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 NW WIND POINT, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 S DOUSMAN, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
2 ENE NECEDAH, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
2 NNE MENOMONIE, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
2 NNE TILDEN, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
MENOMONIE, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
SAUK CITY, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
WATERTOWN, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
DELAVAN LAKE, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
LAC LA BELLE, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
5 WNW BUCKHORN STATE PA, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
7 NNW ELKHORN, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
7 SE WEST BEND, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
ARENA, WI
-
LARGE HAIL (5)
HAIL
HAIL
CORNELL, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
NEENAH, WI
0.88"
HAIL
HAIL
2 ENE NECEDAH, WI
0.88"
HAIL
HAIL
4 S NEW RICHMOND, WI
0.7"
HAIL
HAIL
3 SW MENASHA, WI
0.25"
HEAVY RAIN (104)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE LAKE NEBAGAMON, WI
6.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W MASON, WI
5.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CALEDONIA, WI
5.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 WSW INO, WI
4.74"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
LAC VIEUX DESERT, WI
4.17"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SW NORTH BAY, WI
4.14"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
12 W DRUMMOND, WI
3.95"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
6 E GRAND VIEW, WI
3.92"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N REEDSBURG, WI
3.66"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
HERBSTER, WI
3.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SINSINAWA, WI
3.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE PHILLIPS, WI
3.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PHILLIPS, WI
3.29"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSW JOHNSON CREEK, WI
3.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 W BAYFIELD, WI
3.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SHULLSBURG, WI
3.18"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NW INO, WI
3.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N ELMWOOD PARK, WI
3.08"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 W PHILLIPS, WI
3.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
OULU, WI
2.94"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE FOND DU LAC, WI
2.93"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 N SOLON SPRINGS, WI
2.92"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ASHLAND, WI
2.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
BENOIT, WI
2.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
13 E SOLON SPRINGS, WI
2.68"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 S HAWTHORNE, WI
2.65"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W SOLON SPRINGS, WI
2.64"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNW MELLEN, WI
2.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
STURTEVANT, WI
2.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WSW MAPLE, WI
2.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S OCONOMOWOC, WI
2.51"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSE HERBSTER, WI
2.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 W CEDAR, WI
2.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
HOWARDS GROVE, WI
2.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
NEW LISBON, WI
2.38"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MARSHFIELD, WI
2.32"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
8 W SOLON SPRINGS, WI
2.32"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 N ASHLAND, WI
2.3"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NW GLIDDEN, WI
2.29"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNE LA FARGE, WI
2.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PHELPS, WI
2.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
7 E PATZAU, WI
2.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 SW WAUKESHA, WI
2.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 WNW CLAM LAKE, WI
2.18"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE GALESVILLE, WI
2.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SUPERIOR, WI
2.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N MOQUAH, WI
2.13"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
2.11"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
7 NNE MERCER, WI
2.11"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GLIDDEN, WI
2.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WSW NECEDAH, WI
2.09"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 SSE SOUTH RANGE, WI
2.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 WSW SUPERIOR, WI
2.06"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE WEST ALLIS, WI
2.04"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W BROWNS LAKE, WI
2.02"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 ESE NAMEKAGON, WI
2.01"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 W VIROQUA, WI
2.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW WAUKESHA, WI
1.98"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE MCFARLAND, WI
1.96"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WSW ALLENTON, WI
1.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW STRONGS PRAIRIE, WI
1.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WAUKESHA, WI
1.88"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N BRISTOL, WI
1.85"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SE LANCASTER, WI
1.78"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WSW WEST SALEM, WI
1.77"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SUN PRAIRIE, WI
1.76"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NW EASTMAN, WI
1.74"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
FOND DU LAC, WI
1.72"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CLAM LAKE, WI
1.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
BOULDER JUNCTION, WI
1.68"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SW PHELPS, WI
1.67"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MINOCQUA, WI
1.64"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 WSW SOLON SPRINGS, WI
1.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
LAND O LAKES, WI
1.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SPREAD EAGLE, WI
1.58"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N PALMYRA, WI
1.55"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW ONALASKA, WI
1.55"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SLINGER, WI
1.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
HAZELHURST, WI
1.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ARBOR VITAE, WI
1.49"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
6 WSW INO, WI
1.41"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 N TOMAHAWK, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 S SUPERIOR, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NE SPIRIT FALLS, WI
1.33"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
6 W GOODRICH, WI
1.31"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 E SPIRIT, WI
1.28"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SW MARSHFIELD, WI
1.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
LYNDON STATION, WI
1.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ST GERMAIN, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ELKHORN, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NE PLAIN, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE HOLMEN, WI
1.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
S EAGLE RIVER, WI
1.14"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
LODI, WI
1.13"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S DE SOTO, WI
1.12"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S TREMPEALEAU, WI
1.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MERRILL, WI
1.08"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W WASHBURN, WI
1.05"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
RACINE, WI
1.02"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W PLATTEVILLE, WI
0.97"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
LUBLIN, WI
0.93"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S PHILLIPS, WI
0.78"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WNW SEELEY, WI
0.18"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
STURGEON BAY, WI
-
OTHER (7)
FLOOD
FLOOD
APPLETON, WI
-
FLOOD
FLOOD
HORTONVILLE, WI
-
FLOOD
FLOOD
STOCKBRIDGE, WI
-
FLOOD
FLOOD
WAUNAKEE, WI
-
FLOOD
FLOOD
MCFARLAND, WI
-
FLOOD
FLOOD
NEENAH, WI
-
LIGHTNING
LIGHTNING
ASHIPPUN, WI
-
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