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Wisconsin Weather

JUN 22, 2020 | Soaking Rain Ends early Tuesday AM

LAST UPDATE : JUN 22, 2020

MON 9:30AM - Taking a small step back on this forecast. Models the last 24 hours have performed poorly. Confidence is LOW today. Rain and some storms will move in today. We can see it taking shape to the SW at 9:25AM...

9:25AM radar
9:25AM radar

I debated removal of the 1-2" heavy rain zone leaving a broad zone of 0.5-1.0" rainfall amounts over the SE 2/3rds of WI. Locally higher amounts into the 1-2" range. But looking at radar situation to the SW, I'm going to keep it around. Axis looks ok. Extended it further SW to Prairie du Chien (hopefully make up for miss last night).

9:30AM picture from outer space.
9:30AM picture from outer space.

As for T-STORM threat, 06 HresNAM was interesting but it's an outlier. Looking at the current situation; with outflow boundary WELL into central IL...I highly doubt the NAM will come to pass. Thick clouds will sit over WI today. Clearing attempting to sneak in from the south. Severe is likely to remain well south. I removed the TARGET from eastern WI but will keep mention of TSTRMS. I adjusted the map to jive closer to the SPC's latest and will go from there.

Will send out updates today if needed. -JP


SUN 10:50PM - CONFIDENCE LOW-NORMAL - Monday will be a wet day for the eastern 2/3rds of Wisconsin with periods of rain. SUN overnight activity will slide in the eastern half of the state during the morning(this forecast excludes SUN overnight activity.

Still underneath a large upper trough sending subtle waves of energy through WI; the gift that keeps on giving. Storm events have been on the weak side lately so will continue down that line of thinking. Two things I'm watching for on Monday; heavy rain & strong t-storm potential.

Heavy rain; the GFS & EC keep signaling northeast WI (or EC WI perhaps) with the bullseye. Seems a bit too far north w/ respect to short range models; which are also a buck shot. NAM is unique; not handling current situation well. HRRR was alright. 1-2" is definitely possible with this system; spots that could eclipse 2". PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE LOW. And overall threat appears to be low too. There are definitely some dry spots that will soak the rain right up. So will keep this low key for the moment (reassess in the AM).

With plenty of rain, clouds, and morning debris will only see pockets of weak instability develop. Shear vectors are poor; unidirectional. Short range models kind of agree on bringing a band of t-storms out of southwest WI into SE or EC WI during the morning hours with a bit of instability out ahead. This might be the best chance for a strong wind gust or small hail? Afternoon doesn't look much better for severe parameters given debris. I decided to hold off a STRONG zone. Keeping it GENERAL w/TARGET for now.

Heavy rain probably the biggest threat. Don't expect a repeat of SAT PM.

NAM sounding; pointing out a few things. Mainly the issue is poor wind shear. 15z time frame.
NAM sounding; pointing out a few things. Mainly the issue is poor wind shear. 15z time frame.

.JP

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain
0.5-1.0"
1-2"
2-3"
3-6"
6-10"
10"+

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
T-Storms, Heavy Rain
Start
MON 9:00 AM - Jun 22, 2020
End
TUE 6:00 AM - Jun 23, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

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Soaking rain atm from WI Dells to Shawano. Rain is stationary within the red dashed zone and will continue into early TUES AM. Rain totals around 1-2" in marked zone. No severe weather.
  1
radar estimated rainfall showing the heavy rains just southwest of the targeted area last night...in the vicinity of Waterloo, IA. One report of 6.0"!
12z NAM instability field for this afternoon could yield a severe storm in northern IL. It's possible this storm activity brushes the WI/IL border? I'm a bit skeptical of the situation however watching closely and will let you know if things change.
Nothing happening right now. Models handling the situation POORLY. Still expecting periods of rain and storms this aft/evening across S & E WI.
Heavy rain with storm total rainfall into the 2-3" range near the WI/MN/IA intersection point and region immediately south before 7am MON. 1-2" in adjacent areas, perhaps east towards Madison.
pretty cloudy this AM will keep instability down. Pocket of weak of sbcape developing in SE WI which could support one or two briefly strong cells today
Weak rotation otherwise non severe cells moving northeast thru the Steven's Point region.
  1
Isolated tstorms this morning, Steven's Point with the most action atm. Not much lightning. Weak rotation within that cell cluster. Isolated showers for the rest of S WI could grow into tstorms today as they move NE.

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June 22, 2020

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June 23, 2020

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Storm Reports

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