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Wisconsin Weather

JUN 9, 2020 | Weds PM Rain Chance, TS Cristobal Ends

LAST UPDATE : JUN 10, 2020

10:15PM TUES - the bulk of the event will end tonight. The next precipitation chance will be WEDS PM as a secondary low pushes through. Scattered showers and maybe a tstorm helping to round out the rainfall forecast amounts in the eastern half of WI. Windy conditions possible too.

Wisconsin Weather
Wisconsin Weather

10:40 AM TUE - small adjustments to rainfall forecast map. Previous thoughts still apply. Severe weather threat is low...chance of a weak tornado given favorable cyclonically sheared environment but otherwise non-severe today.

Updated rainfall prediction forecast as of 10:40AM 6/9/2020
Updated rainfall prediction forecast as of 10:40AM 6/9/2020

1:30 PM MON - Forecast models continue to bring Tropical Storm Cristobal into Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon and evening. There will be a lull on Wednesday morning before light rain wraps around the low Weds PM. The primary event will be Tues night.

(See maps) - I tried to constrain down the heaviest rainfall zone...now shaping up across western Wisconsin. I expect a narrow zone of 3-4", possibly locally higher amounts up to 5" near or west of Eau Claire. Storm track details continue to shift run to run but this the latest trends. Eastern Wisconsin has seen a decreasing trend in forecasted rainfall amounts. I'm okay with 1-2"...cozy range to go with. Really focusing on the Mississippi River with this event. I didn't want to push around the 3-6" zone too much so kept it small (and labeled 3-4"+).

12Z EC storm total precipitation forecast.
12Z EC storm total precipitation forecast.

Scattered thunderstorms are likely. On a regional scale I wouldn't rule out a strong t-storm somewhere(it's June after-all). This is not a great setup for severe weather given cloud cover and staking of the low. Weak tornadoes can form but that doesn't concern me as much as other things. Will keep it GENERAL with a TARGET in there to recognize the possibility of a stronger cell...but not enough to go any further right now. If weak tornado threat is legit...will push to STRONG.

SAT 3:12PM - 12z models today further west, focused more on the west side of WI or Mississippi River region. What are the odds this thing targets Minneapolis? GFS and EC basically have the same magnitude just different tracks. And the evolution for Wednesday seems to be changing...from a tropical system into a full blown extra tropical cyclone heading into Canada. Pretty interesting! Confidence level in predicted rainfall amounts is low. Will begin looking at t-storm threat closer with short range models. Stay tuned!

EC total QPF is pretty substantial
EC total QPF is pretty substantial

FRI 6/5 9:30AM - An interesting event could be on tap for next week. Tropical Depression Cristobal will track north into the U.S towards Wisconsin & Great Lakes early next week. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents .

Tropical Depression Cristobal
Tropical Depression Cristobal

Been watching this system for a couple days and models seem to be generally consistent on bringing it through Wisconsin despite large timing differences. The storm track has shifted back and forth from one side of the state to the other...I wouldn't expect consistent to be very good. This storm also complex in the way it interacts/integrates with the jet stream. Bit unusual. I'll keep confidence level LOW for now; not ruling anything out.

Heavy rain will be the primary hazard. 00EC was very aggressive; into the 4"+ range locally within the heaviest axis. 06GFS more modest. The GFS Ensemble mean favors eastern Wisconsin with the heaviest axis while operational models are further west. I'm not gonna get too carried away yet. Will watch over the weekend.

The WPC seems to favor the GFS Ens too. This is the 7-day total.

WPC 7-day Precip outlook as of 6/5 9:00AM CST.
WPC 7-day Precip outlook as of 6/5 9:00AM CST.

Severe thunderstorm threat remains low FOR NOW. Main negating factor appears to be cloud cover. On the other hand timing for Tuesday PM per the 06GFS opens the door. If clouds are thinner, more destabilization could easy lead to t-storm development. I wouldn't rule out a strong storm at this stage provided a trigger of some type. Will be watching as short range models come in.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain
0.5-1.0"
1-2"
2-3"
3-6"
6-10"
10"+

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Heavy Rain, T-Storms
Start
TUE 12:00 PM - Jun 09, 2020
End
THU 12:00 AM - Jun 11, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Posts

Heavy rain along the HWY 151 corridor. Storms nearly stationary. Could be a quick 1-2". More rain approaching from the west.
  1
Isolated showers north. Rain/t-storm southeast today. Heavy rain is possible. Ending around sunset.
WIWX ALERTS - I don't push SMS/EMAIL message for EVERY UPDATE. Some things don't need to be sent out, less important, or redundant. Also I have to ability to target message sends by county; if you don't have a saved location in that specific county - you won't get the message. I'm open to suggestions. Perhaps we could add an entire domain distribution list...if you're on it; you'd get everything posted regardless of location or importance. Let me know what you think. Thanks!
TS Cristobal entering final phase, will end overnight. Heavy rain across the north atm. Reports of 4"+ in SE MN, NE IA and similar amounts could fall into the Eau Claire region.
Rainfall estimates coming in right on target. Several reports in the 4-5" range west of La Crosse. We'll see if those numbers translate up into the Eau Claire region as well. Still raining in the north. Scattered showers Weds PM will help boost totals in the eastern half of WI.
Here it comes. Heavy rain approaching western WI from the south. Flash Flood Watch until 7:00AM tomorrow.
Latest rainfall forecast. 3-6" near/west of La Crosse up to Eau Claire. 2-3" across much of western WI. Around 1-2" in eastern WI. Scattered T-storms too.
MONTHLY FORECASTS - are back by popular demand and updated today through AUG. A few small improvements to go along with it. MAY did not go well so please remember the methods used are experimental.
STORM FORECASTS are now FREE to view to everyone again! Still need to be a member to receive alert messages. I've definitely gone back and forth over this. Lately I feel like opening it up might be the best thing for everyone.

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June 9, 2020

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June 10, 2020

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June 11, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
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Wind Gusts
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Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (5)
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
OSHKOSH, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
GREEN BAY, WI
46 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
APPLETON, WI
46 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
ASHWAUBENON, WI
43 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
MERTON, WI
-
LARGE HAIL (4)
HAIL
HAIL
1 NE MERTON, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
2 SSW OCONOMOWOC LAKE, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
1 S OCONOMOWOC, WI
0.75"
HAIL
HAIL
1 N HARTLAND, WI
0.7"
HEAVY RAIN (135)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
7 NW PHILLIPS, WI
4.06"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
6 WNW PHILLIPS, WI
4.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
BUTTERNUT, WI
4.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 S BRANTWOOD, WI
4.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
LEDGEVIEW, WI
3.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CADOTT, WI
3.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
9 W PHILLIPS, WI
3.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 W PHILLIPS, WI
3.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MERCER, WI
3.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 N SPIRIT, WI
3.47"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
8 N TOMAHAWK, WI
3.46"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 NNW AUGUSTA, WI
3.33"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NE LUBLIN, WI
3.33"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
14 SW EAU CLAIRE, WI
3.3"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 NW DODGE, WI
3.12"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 N PARK FALLS, WI
3.05"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 W BAYFIELD, WI
3.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
BEAVER DAM, WI
3.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
FOUNTAIN CITY, WI
3.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
COCHRANE, WI
2.99"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NNW FRENCHVILLE, WI
2.98"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 NNE CORNELL, WI
2.93"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE PHILLIPS, WI
2.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW AUGUSTA, WI
2.87"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GENOA, WI
2.83"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 N MEDFORD, WI
2.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SW FOND DU LAC, WI
2.77"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
6 W GOODRICH, WI
2.76"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNE CHELSEA, WI
2.74"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W BLACK RIVER FALLS, WI
2.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE FOND DU LAC, WI
2.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 ESE CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
2.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW ONALASKA, WI
2.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N DORCHESTER, WI
2.68"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
E GREEN BAY, WI
2.63"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 E MARSHLAND, WI
2.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ENE MERCER, WI
2.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 NE BELLEVUE, WI
2.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
RETREAT, WI
2.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MONDOVI, WI
2.45"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ETTRICK, WI
2.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N HOLMEN, WI
2.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
NWS LA CROSSE, WI
2.38"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SW BUTTERNUT, WI
2.33"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 E LA CROSSE, WI
2.28"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
EAU CLAIRE, WI
2.28"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W PLATTEVILLE, WI
2.27"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CATARACT, WI
2.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NNE RILEY, WI
2.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
BOULDER JUNCTION, WI
2.17"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PLATTEVILLE, WI
2.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNE STETSONVILLE, WI
2.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
HOWARDS GROVE, WI
2.14"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ARCADIA, WI
2.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE HOLMEN, WI
2.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
TREMPEALEAU, WI
2.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 E LOMIRA, WI
2.09"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W MEDFORD, WI
2.04"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW MIDDLETON, WI
2.03"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
6 SW BUTTERNUT, WI
2.01"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WSW WINDSOR, WI
2.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WSW WEST SALEM, WI
1.99"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
BEACH CORNERS, WI
1.95"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SPREAD EAGLE, WI
1.92"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSE LA CROSSE, WI
1.91"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNE FRENCH ISLAND, WI
1.91"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
NEW LISBON, WI
1.82"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
1.81"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MERRILL, WI
1.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GLEN HAVEN, WI
1.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
BAGLEY, WI
1.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CAMP DOUGLAS, WI
1.79"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 S BLACK RIVER FALLS, WI
1.78"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W TOMAH, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE GILLINGHAM, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NNW TOMAH, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SSE BARRE MILLS, WI
1.74"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 ENE CATARACT, WI
1.74"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 N VICTORY, WI
1.73"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W MUSCODA, WI
1.71"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
RHINELANDER, WI
1.71"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNW VIROQUA, WI
1.68"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
7 W MERRILL, WI
1.67"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S RICHLAND CENTER, WI
1.66"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
1.64"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S DE SOTO, WI
1.63"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SINSINAWA, WI
1.62"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
7 E KNOWLTON, WI
1.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WOODMAN, WI
1.55"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SE LANCASTER, WI
1.53"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MAUSTON, WI
1.51"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PATCH GROVE, WI
1.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW ONALASKA, WI
1.48"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ESE BARRE MILLS, WI
1.46"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PLOVER, WI
1.46"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
EASTMAN, WI
1.46"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NW EASTMAN, WI
1.45"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
6 E BLACK RIVER FALLS, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 ENE SPARTA, WI
1.39"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNE LA FARGE, WI
1.36"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GILE, WI
1.36"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
STEUBEN, WI
1.36"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSE NEW LISBON, WI
1.34"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW NECEDAH, WI
1.32"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ESE WAUKESHA, WI
1.3"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SE POLONIA, WI
1.29"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NW MINERAL POINT, WI
1.27"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SW SPARTA, WI
1.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N CLOVERDALE, WI
1.13"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
FENNIMORE, WI
1.12"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PHILLIPS, WI
1.09"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE PLATTEVILLE, WI
1.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
S PLOVER, WI
1.03"
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
FOND DU LAC, WI
1.00"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 S OSSEO, WI
1.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WAUSAU, WI
1.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSE PLATTEVILLE, WI
0.97"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
NEW GLARUS, WI
0.91"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
VIROQUA, WI
0.84"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE BOSCOBEL, WI
0.83"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
12 W DRUMMOND, WI
0.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNW MELLEN, WI
0.74"
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
OSHKOSH, WI
0.67"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE BOSCOBEL, WI
0.53"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
HAYWARD, WI
0.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 W WASHBURN, WI
0.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ASHLAND, WI
0.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
TREGO, WI
0.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
RED CLIFF, WI
0.49"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ENE LA POINTE, WI
0.47"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SARONA, WI
0.45"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
10 WSW FIFIELD, WI
0.41"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
HIGH BRIDGE, WI
0.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WSW NECEDAH, WI
0.3"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
DODGE, WI
0.26"
OTHER (6)
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
GILMAN, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
FOUNTAIN CITY, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
9 SSW FALL CREEK, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
ARCADIA, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
2 SSW FOND DU LAC, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
2 S CADOTT, WI
-
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