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MAY 14, 2020 | Thursday T-storm Chance

LAST UPDATE : MAY 13, 2020

WEDS 9:15AM - I believe the GFS is an outlier and sided with 06NAM/00EC blend suggesting an early morning round. Redevelopment off to the south in IL Thursday afternoon. I pulled the Strong zone into far southeast WI as models suggest perhaps some intensification around/south of Milwaukee with the morning activity...also if afternoon redevelopment somehow happens further north the map will have it covered. Mainly a CYA move.

The most amazing weather graphic ever created in the history of the world
The most amazing weather graphic ever created in the history of the world

TUES 10:15AM - Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, early AM most likely. The afternoon chances are uncertain. NAM is limiting to the morning hours while the GFS allows for redevelopment during the PM.

The 06GFS is the worst case scenario indicating two rounds with a piece of energy coming through during the afternoon. Seems iffy. Right now we're on the backhalf of the NAM forecast range so I wouldn't totally rule out the GFS idea. Prefer to watch and wait.

If thunderstorms form during the afternoon, the shear profile is mainly unidirectional so the main threats would be low-key large hail or damaging winds gusts. Any morning activity would be elevated and weaker by comparison.

CONCLUSION - it all hinges on whether afternoon redevelopment will occur. I'm skeptical.

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Thunderstorm Outlooks

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Strong
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Storm Details

Hazards
Strong T-Storms
Start
THU 12:00 AM - May 14, 2020
End
THU 6:00 PM - May 14, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Posts

THU 8:40 - morning round was focused along and south of the WI/IL border. Expect afternoon t-storm redevelopment to take place in Illinois. Gloomy day to begin, perhaps some sunny breaks later.

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