9:30AM FRI - Confidence is very low regarding the Saturday night system. Models have been inconsistent. Wisconsin will see a mix of light rain and snow with a northwest flow low pressure system slicing from Minnesota. We're talking about potential for accumulating snow in the middle of May so that's interesting. Overall I'm maintaining a conservative approach as I believe details will continue to change right up until the end and worst case scenario "ain't so bad". The main concern I have is the widespread potential for below freezing temperatures leading up to the event.
I think the NAM is too aggressive. I like the GFS/EC blend which supports the following. There seems to be a slight northward trend and TIMING MATTERS.
- 0-1" for central and northern WI....I stress the 0. That's what I expect the impact to be - 0 - for most places. It will look cool though!
- 1-3", locally higher to 4" in spots across north-central Wisconsin.
Snow will prefer grassy and elevated surfaces. I wouldn't rule out accumulation on pavement due to overnight timing, recent cold temperatures, and brief heavy rate of accumulation (for a couple hours or so). Wouldn't hurt to put the plow on one last time.
If accumulating snow occurs it should melt off throughout the day on Sunday & Monday.