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APR 28, 2020 | Strong T-storms and Heavy Rain Potential Tuesday

LAST UPDATE : MAY 13, 2020

9:15AM TUES - Models show a low pressure system strengthening over Wisconsin today through Wednesday. Main hazards include heavy rain potential across northwest Wisconsin. With dry conditions recently I view this as a positive impact. We could use the rain. The other issue is the potential for strong or severe storms south.

HEAVY RAIN

I went with a broad 0.5-1.0" zone across northern and portions of central WI. I opted for a bullseye approach to northwest WI of 1.0-1.5" as model agreement is pretty good for that. NAM models are a little wetter and tempting as it is; played the conservative EC solution. As already mentioned; rain is a good thing right now because April has been relative dry.

SEVERE THREAT SOUTH?

Models have consistently shown a broken line of thunderstorms moving east across southwest Wisconsin for this afternoon & evening. However they have been inconsistent in severity. The 00Z and 06Z runs this morning were too aggressive compared to what they've been showing. Quick look at the 12Z NAM casts doubt on those previous runs, suggesting only a minor threat. The 00 HREF cams were rather weak too. So here's my prediction.

1. Wisconsin could see a few strong or even severe cells during the late afternoon. Large hail will be the primary threat.

2. The main activity will be across SE IA or W IL, well south of Wisconsin. I believe this will obstruct the moisture influx into the region which was iffy to begin with.

3. Rain/convection currently located west of the Mississippi River will move through the target area this morning...helps moisten the boundary layer YES but could also become a focus for development in IL during the mid day.

So there are many issues and reasons to think this setup may not come together just right. I will be monitoring the situation throughout the day.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain
0.5-1.0"
1-2"
2-3"
3-6"
6-10"
10"+

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Strong T-Storms
Start
TUE 12:00 PM - Apr 28, 2020
End
WED 8:00 AM - Apr 29, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Posts

blah-vection so far over southern WI thanks to lack of destabilization and tstorm activity in IL. Not expecting much tonight, however wouldn't rule out a strong cell in there somewhere. Cells moving E-NE.
MONTHLY FORECASTS - now available through July and updated for May. Check them out here -> www.wisconsinwx.com/forecastMonthly

Archives

April 28, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

April 29, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (2)
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
ASHWAUBENON, WI
58 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
MANITOWOC, WI
48 MPH
HEAVY RAIN (50)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 S AMHERST, WI
3.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
2.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SW KENOSHA, WI
2.67"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 WSW CUDAHY, WI
2.13"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 S KENOSHA, WI
1.98"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.87"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WNW RACINE, WI
1.86"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.86"
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
GOODMAN, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 ESE FRANKSVILLE, WI
1.68"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ENE FRANKLIN, WI
1.68"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE HALES CORNERS, WI
1.67"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 W NORTH BAY, WI
1.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE SOUTH MILWAUKEE, WI
1.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ENE TWIN LAKES, WI
1.59"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE HALES CORNERS, WI
1.57"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 N UNION GROVE, WI
1.54"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ROCHESTER, WI
1.42"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 E ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WATERFORD, WI
1.39"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE SOUTH MILWAUKEE, WI
1.38"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.37"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GILE, WI
1.36"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW BURLINGTON, WI
1.33"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW OAK CREEK, WI
1.32"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE GREENDALE, WI
1.3"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GENOA CITY, WI
1.28"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 W JANESVILLE, WI
1.26"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW PELL LAKE, WI
1.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S ROCHESTER, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
26 ESE RACINE, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WNW NEW BERLIN, WI
1.18"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.16"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W BROWNS LAKE, WI
1.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N WATERFORD NORTH, WI
1.14"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNE DARIEN, WI
1.14"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE NORTH PRAIRIE, WI
1.13"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE WIND LAKE, WI
1.09"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.06"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W MUSKEGO, WI
1.04"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WAUKESHA, WI
1.04"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNE WAUKESHA, WI
1.03"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NW CALEDONIA, WI
1.03"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 N PALMYRA, WI
1.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
RED CLIFF, WI
0.98"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
BOULDER JUNCTION, WI
0.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 S HERBSTER, WI
0.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
6 W GOODRICH, WI
0.81"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NNE BRULE, WI
0.76"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SINSINAWA, WI
0.25"
OTHER (9)
FLOOD
FLOOD
4 NNE BRISTOL, WI
-
FLOOD
FLOOD
1 NE UNION GROVE, WI
-
NON-TSTM WND DMG
NON-TSTM WND DMG
3 SW DE PERE, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
3 WSW DYCKESVILLE, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
N RED BANKS, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
OCONTO, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
GREEN BAY, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
2 ENE GREEN BAY, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
2 SW GREEN BAY, WI
-
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