WEDS 8:30AM - I rolled the severe zone back to a "Target" with a broad Strong still in place. Trying to zero in on the location of maximum threat which is likely to be between Prairie du Chien to Monroe. Will use the "Severe" zone for more widespread threats in the future (not that severe storms won't develop).
A weak low pressure system will slide southeast across Wisconsin feeding into a larger low pressure system crossing through the central US. Models show that the warm sector will nose into southern WI on Wednesday. Forcing/dynamics are weaker with this system (than Monday) but the soundings look good. Similar in some ways regarding the thermodynamic profile so we'll hedge on the side of caution with this setup. (see maps below)
MOST OF WI - I would say it's unlikely that severe weather will occur outside of southwest WI on Wednesday. Models have shown two main periods for development; first during the morning/mid-day hours over central WI perhaps. Not enough energy there that early in the day. This would only be a small hail, brief heavy rain threat. Perhaps the door is left open during the evening? Not worried about it.
SOUTHWEST WI - Models show development during peak heating roughly near/south of I90 in southeast MN. Exact location of development may vary. But storms could then track east with good organization. Thermodynamics are plenty with good lapse rates. Little of that inverted-v sounding we saw Monday with the dry boundary layer, thus I think strong/damaging wind gusts are possible. Bulk shear in the 50kt range, veered profile. Low freezing level would suggest a large hail threat. I cannot rule out a tornado as this season has been punching harder than anticipated. High cloud bases and soundings pretty weak on the low level (0-1) km shear. 0-3km shear is better but weak low level jet will help minimize overall severity.
Not happy about the previous storm forecast. I know we've got it covered on this one.