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Wisconsin Weather

APR 12, 2020 | Winter Storm Sunday/Mon AM

LAST UPDATE : APR 11, 2020

SAT 11:15 PM - No changes.

SAT 3:15 PM - Just shifted the snowfall map eastward a bit. No other changes or details to add.

FRI 2:00PM - 12z EC/NAM are the favored models on this update. I've disregarded the GFS for now because it's an outlier...not saying the other models won't trend east later. GFS ensemble mean was pretty far east so needless to say agreement could be better. I've kept confidence level = LOW. In most situations I would start going down the major storm route in terms of verbiage. Will leave that for Saturday and hammer it then if things do indeed pan out the way the EC/NAM show today. See details and maps below.

HEAVY SNOW - Yesterday I was on the conservative end as much as I'd like to stay there, I respect the agreement between EC/NAM on high end amounts potentially exceeding 12" in a narrow band now across northern WI. I hedged it by going 8-13". Please note that the track has been trending west and I tried to hedge that way SLIGHTLY. I noticed that the NAM has surface temperatures in the low to mid 40's over southern WI SAT/SUN so I think it will be really hard for accumulation down there throughout the event; but perhaps some accum on grassy/elevated surfaces Mon AM on the wrap around before ending.

13-18" in upper Michigan includes lake effect snow throughout the period leading up to the storm...and the storm itself.

HEAVY RAIN/T-STORMS - Big model disagreement in the handling of convective t-storm elements across southern Wisconsin Saturday night, mainly Sunday PM. The question of presence and ability to produce heavy rains. EC is non-existent and driest with 0.4-0.75" QPF south. Rest of the models much wetter including NAM/GFS up to 2.0". Given my skepticism toward the way GFS might be handling it...I maintained the previous forecast of 0.75-1.5". Confidence is very low. As for t-storms....with the surface warm sector likely remained well off to the south...the threat for t-storms in general will remain low. The EC does open the door. Just not feeling it right now. If anything small hail would be possible but that feels like a stretch.

Wind Gusts to 45 MPH on Monday - Wind gusts will be on the weak side Saturday thru Sunday. Monday will be the windy day, especially southeast. I sided with the 12GFS wind forecast vs. the 00EC (windy.com hadn't updated yet). The EC was really windy and want to avoid the worst case. There is room to increase the wind gust forecast on future forecast. I'm comfortable where this stands.

Travel Hazard/Power Outage Hazards- I bumped up to moderate risk in portions of the Great Lakes regions for the event for TRAVEL. The biggest problems may come from the wind on Monday. Just something to consider.

Next Update - by Saturday mid-afternoon.

-------------------------------PREVIOUS---------------------------

FRI 8:15AM - some divergence in progs over the last 24 hours with EC trending back west and 06zGFS being an outlier. No changes right now. Full update this afternoon following the arrival of 12Z models.

THU 10:30 AM - Still waiting on full 12z suite so forecast is based on overnight runs. I thought agreement was good enough to start pulling some levers. The positive news is that models currently focus the primary snowfall on Sunday night/early Monday AM so overall impact should be less than if it were mid-day. This system has the look of a strengthening low going pole-ward over Michigan. This tends to bring about heavy snow, nasty weather on the wrap around. Keeping recent history of model performance in mind this winter with other societal issues...staying away from worst case scenarios. This forecast hour recently has been a back breaker with general agreement then diverging solutions.

WEDS 4/8 8:45 PM - Models today continue to show winter storm potential Sunday night into Monday. Feel like we're at a critical point were things tend to diverge so will wait for tomorrow's model runs. 12EC was a nudge further east actually. I adjusted the snowfall map for location....will take a shot at snow amounts soon.

WEDS 4/8 8:45 AM - A winter storm is possible Sunday into Monday AM in Wisconsin. Confidence is low.

There are differences between the GFS (colder) & EC(warmer). I'm leaning more toward the EC warmer solution with lighter snow accumulations mainly north and northwest WI. The GFS appears too aggressive/dynamic. Model consistency could be better thus overall confidence is once again LOW. Not out of the question a stronger, colder system will materialize but at this stage not going there yet.

Regarding rainfall amounts, models are not in agreement but some do show an inch or more for portions of WI. That may also depend on exact precipitation type/thermal profile. Recent storms started snowier...then trended warmer with time. Either way not choosing a bias just watching how this aspect evolves. This time of year we kind of expect soaking heavy rain so not too concerned right now.

GFS/EC agree on taking the surface low center south & east of WI which should reduce t-storm potential. Many details to be resolved. Stay tuned!

Next update THU AM.

JP

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Snow


Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain
0.5-1.0"
1-2"
2-3"
3-6"
6-10"
10"+

Wind Gust

Wind Gust (MPH)
<20 MPH
20-30 MPH
30-40 MPH
40-50 MPH
50-60 MPH
60+ MPH

Travel Hazard

Travel Hazard
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High

Power Outage Risk

Power Outage Risk
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Heavy Snow, Heavy Rain, High Wind
Start
SUN 6:00 AM - Apr 12, 2020
End
MON 6:00 PM - Apr 13, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Comments

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Posts

periods of rain and snow developing, increasing in coverage/intensity this afternoon. 2.2" near Rochester, MN suggests the storm is coming in close to our forecast.

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April 12, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

April 13, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

Storm Reports

HEAVY RAIN (1)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SINSINAWA, WI
0.45"
SNOW (206)
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
GILE, WI
16.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
SPREAD EAGLE, WI
15.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
GLEASON, WI
13.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
PELICAN LAKE, WI
12.8"
SNOW
SNOW
8 W MERRILL, WI
12.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
ARGONNE, WI
12.5"
Heavy Snow
HEAVY SNOW
GOODMAN, WI
12.0"
SNOW
SNOW
9 E AMBERG, WI
11.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WNW LADYSMITH, WI
11.6"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
FLORENCE, WI
11.6"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
MONICO, WI
11.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
AURORA, WI
11.2"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE OWEN, WI
11.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
7 W MERRILL, WI
10.6"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
3 NNW BUTTERNUT, WI
10.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNW BUTTERNUT, WI
10.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 S EAU CLAIRE, WI
10.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
2 NW ARGONNE, WI
10.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WSW ALTOONA, WI
10.1"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
1 WNW PRENTICE, WI
10.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WNW PRENTICE, WI
10.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E BRUCE, WI
10.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
LAC VIEUX DESERT, WI
10.0"
SNOW
SNOW
MEDFORD, WI
10.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
8 N TOMAHAWK, WI
9.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ESE CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
9.7"
SNOW
SNOW
5 W WITHEE, WI
9.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
9.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SE CHETEK, WI
9.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
SUMMIT LAKE, WI
9.5"
SNOW
SNOW
WITHEE, WI
9.5"
SNOW
SNOW
EAU CLAIRE, WI
9.4"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
12 W LAND O LAKES, WI
9.4"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
1 S PHILLIPS, WI
9.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S PHILLIPS, WI
9.3"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
PRESQUE ISLE, WI
9.2"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
RHINELANDER, WI
9.1"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
WAUSAUKEE, WI
9.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
ENTERPRISE, WI
9.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 N BOYCEVILLE, WI
9.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 NE MONTANA, WI
9.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
3 W PHILLIPS, WI
9.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
EAGLE RIVER, WI
8.7"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSW EAU CLAIRE, WI
8.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
2 SE ATHELSTANE, WI
8.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S RIVER FALLS, WI
8.5"
SNOW
SNOW
MONDOVI, WI
8.3"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
HEAFFORD JUNCTION, WI
8.0"
SNOW
SNOW
HUDSON, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
IRMA, WI
8.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LOYAL, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
GLIDDEN, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
1 NNW HURLEY, WI
8.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW ALTOONA, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
4 NE RHINELANDER, WI
8.0"
SNOW
SNOW
ALMA, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
7 E PHILLIPS, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
CRIVITZ, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
4 E EAGLE RIVER, WI
7.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NE PEPIN, WI
7.7"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
MERRILL, WI
7.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
PEMBINE, WI
7.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
THREE LAKES, WI
7.5"
SNOW
SNOW
COLFAX, WI
7.4"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
1 NE MONDOVI, WI
7.3"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
1 E SPIRIT, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E SPIRIT, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WSW BALDWIN, WI
7.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
CRANDON, WI
7.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
BUTTERNUT, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
BUTTERNUT, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
ARCADIA, WI
7.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
6 SW BUTTERNUT, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
6 SW BUTTERNUT, WI
7.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
3 SW BAYFIELD, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SSW CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
ELLSWORTH, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LOOKOUT, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
INDEPENDENCE 3NE, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 ESE CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
6.6"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
7 NW PHILLIPS, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E MENOMONIE, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW RIVER FALLS, WI
6.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
HAZELHURST, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
LUBLIN, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
NEILLSVILLE 4NNE, WI
6.3"
SNOW
SNOW
7 NE TILDEN, WI
6.2"
SNOW
SNOW
CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
6.2"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
BOWLER, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
8 NE BLOOMER, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 E NORTHFIELD, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNW RIPLINGER, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N MENOMONIE, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E ELLSWORTH, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N DORCHESTER, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
ROBERTS, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
NEILLSVILLE, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
STRATFORD, WI
6.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
LAKE TOMAHAWK, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
WAUSAU, WI
5.9"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
1 SSE PHILLIPS, WI
5.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WNW CLAM LAKE, WI
5.8"
SNOW
SNOW
ARBOR VITAE, WI
5.8"
SNOW
SNOW
SPRING VALLEY, WI
5.6"
SNOW
SNOW
WHITE LAKE, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNW FRENCHVILLE, WI
5.3"
SNOW
SNOW
4 N BRADLEY, WI
5.3"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW DURAND, WI
5.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NW MANITOWISH, WI
5.2"
SNOW
SNOW
8 N TOMAHAWK, WI
5.2"
SNOW
SNOW
ROSHOLT, WI
5.2"
SNOW
SNOW
ALTOONA, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
BLAIR, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 ESE OJIBWA, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW DURAND, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE BLACK RIVER FALLS, WI
4.6"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NW STONE LAKE, WI
4.6"
SNOW
SNOW
PRESQUE ISLE, WI
4.6"
SNOW
SNOW
MARSHFIELD, WI
4.6"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NW WASHBURN, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E LORETTA, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
4 S CLEAR LAKE, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
7 W MERRILL, WI
4.3"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW SEELEY, WI
4.3"
SNOW
SNOW
3 N RHINELANDER, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW HAYWARD, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S BLOOMER, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S ST. CROIX FALLS, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
MENOMONIE, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
HAUGEN, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
GILE, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
GOODMAN, WI
4.0"
Snow
SNOW
GOODMAN, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
RHINELANDER, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW HAYWARD, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ENE BEACH CORNERS, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
CHILI 6NNE, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 W STANBERRY, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
4 N IOLA, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
WISCONSIN RAPIDS, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
SHAWANO, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N MOQUAH, WI
3.4"
SNOW
SNOW
4 NNW NEW POST, WI
3.3"
SNOW
SNOW
4 NE NEW AMSTERDAM, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NE CABLE, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NE GLIDDEN, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ENE RADISSON, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
HATFIELD, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
12 ENE WAUSAU, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
7 E MOUNTAIN, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE GALESVILLE, WI
2.6"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
CHILI 6NNE, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
PLOVER, WI
2.4"
SNOW
SNOW
WAUPACA, WI
2.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E SPOONER, WI
2.3"
SNOW
SNOW
4 ENE CORNUCOPIA, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 S ASHLAND, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
ASHLAND, WI
2.1"
SNOW
SNOW
7 WNW TREGO, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
9 SSW NAMEKAGON, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SW NORTHWOODS BEACH, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 S HERBSTER, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N GILE, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW ONALASKA, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW SPARTA, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N BUFFALO, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LAKE TOMAHAWK, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
PULASKI, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E LA CROSSE, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
5 WSW WARRENS, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE FRENCH ISLAND, WI
1.7"
SNOW
SNOW
3 E MASON, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
E NEW LONDON, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
5 W WASHBURN, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
UPSON, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
HANCOCK, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
FRENCH ISLAND, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
GENOA, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
FORESTVILLE, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
MARINETTE, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
WASHINGTON ISLAND, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
NEW LONDON, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
POY SIPPI, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SSE LA CROSSE, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
6 SE FREMONT, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WNW FRIENDSHIP, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S TREMPEALEAU, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ESE MAUSTON, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WSW WEST SALEM, WI
0.9"
SNOW
SNOW
ASHWAUBENON, WI
0.9"
SNOW
SNOW
5 NNE STODDARD, WI
0.9"
SNOW
SNOW
WEST SALEM, WI
0.9"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S DE SOTO, WI
0.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E VIROQUA, WI
0.7"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSE HOLMEN, WI
0.7"
SNOW
SNOW
NW APPLETON, WI
0.7"
SNOW
SNOW
LA FARGE, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
EPHRAIM, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SE SPOONER, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNE FRENCH ISLAND, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
5 WSW SOLON SPRINGS, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
4 NNE SARONA, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW HILLSBORO, WI
0.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NW TOMAH, WI
0.1"
SNOW
SNOW
6 SW WEBB LAKE, WI
0.1"
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