9:25PM FRI - No changes. Will be watching the progress of the warm front as it nears the WI/IL border. My assumption based on latest model data is that it will get very close but not close enough. So previous forecast thoughts hold. Please see the maps! Thanks! -JP
1:30PM FRI - Same general feeling for Wisconsin based on latest model data. Elevated t-storms carrying large hail potential during the day/evening hours across southern WI.
10AM THU - The warm sector does swing through. An early look at severe parameters for Saturday does show strong dynamics. Surface thermodynamics are weak however as the surface warm front get's pinched off so it's likely to be an elevated event if anything. If we could get more sun or warmer temps regionally then we might have something here beyond elevated t-storms. I think severe weather threat will be limited to large hail threat. I don't think the SPC considered amount of elevated instability in Day 3 outlook thus I've brought my "Strong" zone further north. Will be watching closely.