MAR 12, 2020 | Rain on Thursday (Chance Snow Far North)

9:40AM THU - No changes. Have a great day! Get outside and smell the rain!

9:50AM WEDS - Another weak low impact storm event for daytime Thursday will bring rain to Wisconsin and perhaps some snow to the far north. This low comes together on the fly like some of it's predecessors which lowers overall predictability/confidence. Short range models seemed to be struggling.

RAIN - On this update I decided to go with a slightly higher rainfall zone across portions of northeast WI. GFS/EC/NAM indicate a narrow rainfall band of 0.4-0.7" along and axis somewhere through WI. EC little further north, GFS/NAM little further south so I've split the difference. Less than 0.5" for most places. The labeled rainfall map below is my best guess right now. Confidence level is low.

SNOW - The best chance for accumulating snow will be across far northern WI. Models disagree on the exact location of the heaviest snow. I believe the NAM is wrong and appears to be largely overdoing the QPF across the north thus sided with GFS/EC QPF fields. Non-NAM models put the highest amounts of possibly 1-2" or more across Upper Michigan and the snow belt and that's what I've gone with. I used a large trace zone to highly the general area where you might see snowflakes but I'm doubtful it will amount to much.

Forecast Maps

Snow

Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain

0.5-1.0"

1-2"

2-3"

3-6"

6-10"

10"+

Verification

Storm Details

Hazards

Heavy Rain

Start

THU 12:00 AM - Mar 12, 2020

End

THU 6:00 PM - Mar 12, 2020

Confidence Level

Storm Class

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Justin Poublon
Mar 12, 2020

It will narrow and intensify over central into northeast WI. The forecast for a strip of 0.4-0.7" is on target and will be found associated with this feature. No other concerns at this stage. Have a great day!

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Justin Poublon
Mar 11, 2020

This afternoon I've decided to finish a really interesting teleconnection project I started a couple weeks ago. I plan to finish the storm events db by Friday. I want to share all the work that goes into producing the storm events db in video log format. Very technical. It's a beast but think it will be fun to share the data science side.

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