8:30 PM SUN - Overall saw a southern trend since this time yesterday. Models also diverged enough with main snow band that I decided to come down to 3-6". A little surprised at the change with several runs of consistency before that. Cannot rule out locally higher amounts at or above 6" but confidence on where exactly that will be is zero. Kept going with lower snow totals over far eastern WI due to likelihood of slightly warmer surface temps.
Taking back down to minor class 2 impact storm. It was borderline class 3 yesterday. The way things are shaping up don't really want to make a deal over it. - JP
(PREVIOUS)9:55PM SAT- I've boosted this system into Moderate Class 3 for a couple reasons.
- Snow band of
4-8" likely based on latest guidance across central or northern WI Monday night.
- Icy conditions possible on untreated roads into Tuesday AM with arctic front sweeping through overnight turning wet roads to ice.
- Timing of impact spanning from Monday evening commute through to Tues AM.
SNOW Snow is expected across north/central with a bulls-eye of 4-8" storm total somewhere in the Stevens Point/Wausau area on latest model runs. It could be a heavy wet snow. I carry that over through northeast WI into eastern upper Michigan. I kept Door County and Fox Valley in the 2-4" zone for now where it will be warmer. Basically anything northwest of the Fox Valley will get the most snow. Waiting to see if models trend colder towards todays 12zEC. I cut back sharply across southern WI from 1-2" to 4-8" due to a warm layer pushing north into the state. Where that warm layer gets to will be key. GFS has been trending slightly further north. 12EC was the southern-most similar to my maps from late last week. I feel like the combination of NAM/GFS are the most likely scenario at this stage. However given forecast hour...many things still on the table.
In the south, temperatures could warm into the mid 30's during the Monday with a fairly thick warm layer up to 1000 meters so I don't think snow is much of a factor. I think most of the precipitation Monday night will be in the form of rain (maybe wintry mix or sleet on a local scale?). Icy spots are possible on roadways and sidewalks where cold ground surface meets rain. PLUS temperatures will crash into the 20's early Tuesday AM as the cold front pushes through not too far behind the departing precip. This may result in a flash freeze situation for the Tuesday AM commute on untreated roads.
So even if you get rain there may be issues to deal with Tuesday morning.