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Wisconsin Weather

JAN 24, 2020 | Periods of Snow into Saturday AM

LAST UPDATE : JAN 23, 2020
THU 9:30PM - There will be two main periods of snow accumulation. Long update.
  1. FRI 2am - FRI noon. Generally an inch or less with a couple spots over that in southern WI.
  2. A break with scattered to light showery activity. Effectively nothing with temperatures warming close to or above freezing south.
  3. FRI 6PM to SAT 6AMish - The better chance for accumulation. 1-3", perhaps more south. Lets talk about it.
The challenges starting now through the end of the event at SAT 6AM:
  1. Temperatures near or above freezing contributing to melt on contact or possible change over to mix.
  2. Gaps between accumulation events that allows for clean up, rising temps, compression, and reduction of overall impact. Same as the last two days.
  3. Spiraling, becoming stationary band of snow Friday night into Saturday over southern WI that could result in much higher snow totals in spots.
Here's what I see:
18Z GFS vs. 00 NSSL(NAM/EC similar) with bulk coming Friday night into Saturday AM
18Z GFS vs. 00 NSSL(NAM/EC similar) with bulk coming Friday night into Saturday AM
  1. Comparing model performance to today (Thursday). All models in general agreement. Were they disagreed was Illinois and GFS won. It handled that warmer environment the best while NAM was too much(w/ snow). NAM/GFS generally did good across Wisconsin and upper Michigan where temps were less of an issue.
  2. FOR FRI thru SAT however, VAST differences between GFS and NAM/EC across southern WI and Illinois. GFS is actually the lone outlier at this stage. Most met's will need to choose between GFS no snow and NAM/EC lots of snow. Conservatism, hot hand in the GFS, and natural disposition. Think GFS less snow gets the nod. Some just won't make a decision or water it down. I think this could be a totally different situation Friday night into Saturday and need to avoid getting suckered by the GFS. Day 1 = right . Day 2 = right. Day 3 = totally wrong. Nothing is impossible. Or maybe somewhere in between?
The NAM/EC have strong signals for snow and I'd be crazy to look away. I wouldn't call it heavy; but I will call it solid steady (typically helps if it's heavy snow for accumulation). Solid forcing up through the growth zone Fri night into Sat AM with below freezing profiles all but at the surface. Favorable timing for accumulation overnight even if temps are slightly above freezing. All signs point towards snow. I've seen similar situations with a storm parked over the same region where forecasts busts towards heavy snow. So that's what I'm preparing for.

I would regard the NAM/EC and basically all short range models as worst case scenario. In such situation I would add a 3-6" storm total zone where I have the target now. 2-5" Friday night into Saturday AM. This might be the grand finale of the 3 day snow event. (see map)

Ultimately I've decided to wait until Friday morning to make a call. It's late. If I went 3-6" now we would stick out too much - people not reading this probably won't understand - and I don't want to worry about that overnight. There is more value in waiting probably. If the NAM/EC are right that will become evident and it's more important to take action than be first to break the cold war like silence. This might put my forecast at a disadvantage since the NWS folks are early worms and may push out an advisory before I wake up. That's okay. At least you know what's going on. Full day to react tomorrow

Talk to you soon!


Forecast Maps

Snow


Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Heavy Snow
Start
FRI 12:00 AM - Jan 24, 2020
End
SAT 6:00 AM - Jan 25, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Posts

It's quiet now - for most - after another day of snow in Wisconsin. It won't last as a period of snow will move north through the state tomorrow morning bringing another inch or so. This won't be the end of it. More snow Friday night!
snow w/wintry mix in spots has been much more common over portions of western, northern, and northwest WI the last 24 hours. It's starting to press more into the eastern half of the state tonight where it will be more common on Thursday.

Archives

January 24, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

January 25, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

Storm Reports

SNOW (183)
SNOW
SNOW
CLINTON, WI
6.0"
Snow
SNOW
FLORENCE, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
THERESA, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE MAPLE BLUFF, WI
4.6"
SNOW
SNOW
AMHERST, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WSW ABRAMS, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S OCONOMOWOC, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W WATERTOWN, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
TAYCHEEDAH, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
RIPON, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
ST. PETER, WI
4.5"
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NW ANGELICA, WI
4.4"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WNW SLINGER, WI
4.2"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SW SHAWANO, WI
4.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W OCONOMOWOC, WI
4.1"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N RICHFIELD, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NE TWIN LAKES, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S ROCHESTER, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N CLINTONVILLE, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 S NORTH PRAIRIE, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 S MIDDLETON, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNE VERONA, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SE THERESA, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SSE SULLIVAN, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
BEAVER DAM, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
BELOIT, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
STOUGHTON, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
SHAWANO, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
HORICON, WI
3.9"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SE NEW LONDON, WI
3.9"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW KEWASKUM, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
DANE COUNTY REGIONAL AI, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
4 NNE MONONA, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SE JACKSON, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NW ARGONNE, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NE OSHKOSH, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N PULASKI, WI
3.7"
SNOW
SNOW
ASHWAUBENON, WI
3.7"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNW ASHWAUBENON, WI
3.7"
SNOW
SNOW
SHIOCTON, WI
3.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE HAZELHURST, WI
3.6"
Snow
SNOW
FOND DU LAC, WI
3.6"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ESE ATHELSTANE, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WSW JOHNSON CREEK, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
10 NE BOULDER JUNCTION, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW NEENAH, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW LAKE MILLS, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NW JOHNSON CREEK, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW APPLETON, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 S SUGAR BUSH, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 S MOUNT HOREB, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
4 NNE VERONA, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SE SUPERIOR, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
OREGON, WI
3.4"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW SPLIT ROCK, WI
3.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW OCONOMOWOC, WI
3.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ENE LAKE GENEVA, WI
3.2"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E COTTAGE GROVE, WI
3.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNW KAUKAUNA, WI
3.2"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW WOODRUFF, WI
3.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 N LANNON, WI
3.2"
SNOW
SNOW
WRIGHTSTOWN, WI
3.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E GREEN LAKE, WI
3.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S COLUMBUS, WI
3.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE PESHTIGO, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E MERTON, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N DEERFIELD, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ENE MOUNTAIN, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ESE BELOIT, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N ZITTAU, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WNW SLINGER, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ESE BROWNS LAKE, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW MIDDLETON, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW BEAVER DAM, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 ENE RHINELANDER, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 SE DODGEVILLE, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
7.3 ENE MINERAL POINT, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
ROSHOLT, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
FOND DU LAC, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
8 SW MADISON, WI
2.9"
SNOW
SNOW
3 W JANESVILLE, WI
2.9"
SNOW
SNOW
3 N MAPLE BLUFF, WI
2.8"
SNOW
SNOW
SCANDINAVIA, WI
2.8"
SNOW
SNOW
LEDGEVIEW, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSE HUBERTUS, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W MONROE, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW RILEY, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ESE GERMANTOWN, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE NEW GLARUS, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NE DODGEVILLE, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW DELAVAN, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SW DANE, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
WATERLOO, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WNW FRANKLIN, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSW JOHNSON CREEK, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
7 ESE SUPERIOR, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 S SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N MUKWONAGO, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW BELGIUM, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE JEFFERSON, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW HARTFORD, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW MARKESAN, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WSW ELM GROVE, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ENE WHITE CREEK, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N PALMYRA, WI
2.4"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NW WAUKESHA, WI
2.3"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SE MONTICELLO, WI
2.3"
SNOW
SNOW
7 E MOSINEE, WI
2.3"
SNOW
SNOW
4 S RILEY, WI
2.3"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WSW GLENDALE, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
5 SSW GLENBEULAH, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SE EAGLE, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW NEW BERLIN, WI
2.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S WATERTOWN, WI
2.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W ALLENTON, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ESE MONTELLO, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW LODI, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSE HALES CORNERS, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
6 SE DODGEVILLE, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
6 WSW PORTAGE, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 SSW DOUSMAN, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 ENE COLUMBUS, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
MUSCODA, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
NWS SULLIVAN, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
JACKSON, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
ELKHORN, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
GILE, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NE UNION GROVE, WI
1.9"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N JANESVILLE, WI
1.9"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE WEST ALLIS, WI
1.9"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ENE FRANKLIN, WI
1.9"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW SAUK CITY, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
7 SW PORTAGE, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE WHITEWATER, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW BEAVER DAM, WI
1.7"
SNOW
SNOW
EASTMAN, WI
1.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W MUSKEGO, WI
1.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S REEDSBURG, WI
1.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S SAUKVILLE, WI
1.6"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WSW ROCK SPRINGS, WI
1.6"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSE ARLINGTON, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
CASSVILLE, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW POTTER LAKE, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW RACINE, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NW ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 S KENOSHA, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSW BELOIT, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE JACKSON, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S GERMANTOWN, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
NEWBURG, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
LODI, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
LA FARGE, WI
1.4"
SNOW
SNOW
PORT WASHINGTON, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
4 WSW HOWARDS GROVE, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SW MELVINA, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SW SHEBOYGAN, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 ESE THIENSVILLE, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 N KOHLER, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NW BROWN DEER, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ESE PELL LAKE, WI
1.1"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
1.1"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSE ELK CREEK, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SW KENOSHA, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E WEST ALLIS, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E WAUWATOSA, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W TOMAH, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
FRENCH ISLAND, WI
0.8"
SNOW
SNOW
MILWAUKEE MITCHELL INTE, WI
0.8"
SNOW
SNOW
MITCHELL INTERNATIONAL, WI
0.8"
SNOW
SNOW
ONALASKA, WI
0.8"
SNOW
SNOW
DARLINGTON, WI
0.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W WINNEBAGO, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW RACINE, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WSW WEST SALEM, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE SOUTH MILWAUKEE, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
STURGEON BAY, WI
0.5"
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