Based on January data, the best matched years suggest March could be pretty wet. I'm not confident on this idea yet but throwing it out there anyway.
A winter storm will bring snow, sleet, and freezing rain to Wisconsin Monday and Tuesday. It will not snow, sleet, or rain the entire time. Precipitation will arrive in two main waves. Freezing rain/sleet is expected due to cold air at the surface across central and/or southern Wisconsin. Early estimates suggest ice accumulation could exceed 0.25" by Tuesday night. The details will matter and with shifts in storm track still possible, I will wait to add that detail until later.
Forecasting mixed precipitation is not easy. In this situation just trying to broad brush central Wisconsin with "Icy". Sleet can get very slippery too and the temperature profile in northern Wisconsin is more supportive of slippery conditions. A little warm in the south. Stationary front is sitting over central Wisconsin.Â
FLOOD ADVISORY - The National Weather Service issued a Flood Advisory in southern Wisconsin. 0.5-1.0" of estimated rainfall on frozen ground is causing minor flooding on highways 'n such. Travel safely! More rain is expected overnight into tomorrow.
Only after a full day of heavy snow with 10" accumulations, Douglas county finally gets a Winter Storm Warning. Ashland never got a warning and they had 12". Are these counties that sparsely populated or that used to snow? I'm sure there is a good explanation. Did these warnings not make it to our system?
12GFS showing a fun snow event for this weekend. Working on a member blog discussing the uncertainty.Â
Last of the storm slowly moving out. Mostly rain at this point.Â
Slipping deeper into the current weather pattern. Changes coming in early March when upper level pattern retrogrades.