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Wisconsin Weather

JAN 11, 2020 | Winter Ice Storm southern WI - Snowfall Bust

LAST UPDATE : JAN 11, 2020

FRI 11:30PM - models still shifting Saturday PM round around but keeping southeast WI in the crosshairs. At this stage I won't be making any changes to the forecast maps and will use storm updates/raw output. Ready for this storm to be over with as it's been a nightmare keeping up with/contemplating all the constant changing...and the impostors. The weather pattern will stay busy into next week so keep your shovels handy! Little time to think. Also noticing a few improvements that can be made to the website in this new workflow so please be patient. It's going to take quiet weather to get this thing really humming...but it takes busy times like this to identify the issues. Thanks for reading! Stay tuned!

FRI 1:30 PM - Overnight/morning runs did a number on the overall confidence of this forecast. Went from pretty solid to more fluid and that's never good. For this forecast I used the GFS/EC framework with a nice blend of short range model trends. In my experience short range models will outperform the medium range regarding snow amounts in this forecast hour...they shouldn't be taken 100% literally...but elements of the short rangers should be applied.

Looking at current radar trends across Iowa, Kansas, Missouri...I don't think short range models are that far off. EC just not detailed enough to capture it. Short range models do really well in this regime with banding running over the same areas and there's some good looking bands in there. Looks really healthy. The other thing is momentum of the activity will probably carry northeast-ward into Wisconsin. If you look at the warning/watch situation it's almost like it bends abruptly heading into WI. I lined up the snowfall forecast with current trends. I think we're in good shape.

1:50PM FRI - healthy radar trends coming out of the southwest.
1:50PM FRI - healthy radar trends coming out of the southwest.

What makes this forecast complicated are the following factors:

1. Narrow band of heavy snow likely tonight across southern Wisconsin, perhaps edging into central WI. Several days ago models showed this...then backed off...and then brought it back again last night. This feature is here to stay but goes to show the volatility of the forecast this weekend. 2-6" possible overnight.

2. Uncertainty over Saturday night trowal...will it be weaker/further south per GFS, bigger deal for southern WI on the EC, or much further north like the NAM? In this situation I like the EC framework...noting that the 10:1 is probably too low. If you take the NAM amounts as high range next to EC (consideration for 10:1) then you get probably 4-8" Saturday night. This feature will make or break the forecast and honestly have to trust more in medium range models at that forecast hour and at the time of writing. Will note that EC has been most consistent on this aspect.

FREEZING RAIN - The main period for freezing rain will be Saturday morning. I thought it was interesting how forecast for freezing rain were more impressive yesterday...i.e amounts at or above 1.0" ice accretion. No doubt that would have been a huge deal. TODAY, not as world ending but still significant...also further north in the WI/IL border region. I forecast 0.25-0.5" of ice is possible from Iowa City to Maquoketa to Freeport IL up through Janesville and even over to Milwaukee area. I wouldn't be surprised to see greater than 0.5" of ice accumulation in that region(probably not Milwaukee but further southwest). Because the NAM specifically was backtracking in general and I didn't want to stick out too much I highlighted that zone with a "Target". But you have to wonder...if it's wishy washy going into it...how confident can you be in the highest of high ice accumulation amounts? Worst case scenario is really bad for that region. Prepare now for possiblity of power outage and impassible roads come Saturday morning.

More information can be found on the official forecast found on the home page. Thanks!

Forecast Maps

Snow


Ice & Sleet

Ice & Sleet
Glaze
0.1-0.2"
0.2-0.5"
0.5-1.0"
1-2"
2"+

Wind Gust

Wind Gust (MPH)
<20 MPH
20-30 MPH
30-40 MPH
40-50 MPH
50-60 MPH
60+ MPH

Travel Hazard

Travel Hazard
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High

Power Outage Risk

Power Outage Risk
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High

Start and End Times


Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Heavy Snow, Ice, High Wind
Start
FRI 6:00 PM - Jan 10, 2020
End
SAT 10:00 PM - Jan 11, 2020
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Comments

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Posts

snow continues to spread east. Around 1-2" by morning. Slippery roads possible overnight. Wishing everyone safe travels!
It will approach from the west, perhaps rather quickly later tonight. Be prepared for slippery roads overnight and possibly for the Monday morning commute.
2-4" reported across far southeast WI. The heaviest snows are moving out. Cannot rule out light snow showers through up through midnight.
Znow is moving back in across southeast WI. Models today continue to back track and lower snow amounts run after run. Rare to see such a huge downtrend. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW you will be lucky to get an additional 2-4". I don't believe the 8-12" Will materalize. Windy conditions continue with gusts near 35 MPH in the east (perhaps over 40 MPH along the lakeshore). -JP
Confidence is still low with this event and some models are further east with the snow tonight. Peak time for accumulation is between 4PM and Midnight tonight. 4-8" in portions of southeast WI.
Relatively quiet today with the peak freezing rain period done with. Cannot rule out light freezing drizzle in southern WI. Wouldn't be suprised if dry air cut that off entirely. Heavy snow develops further south into southeast WI after 4PM tonight ending around midnight. Models vary on how far west this next round will go...no farther than Oshkosh - Dubuque line is my expectation. Additional 4-8".
slippery stretches all over southern and eastern WI, ice covered on 94 between Madison and Janesville and 41 south of Fond du lac. I'm guessing light snow has compacted into black ice north of Green Bay. Roads should improve today as plow crews get after it during the warmest part of the day.
dry air is pushing in on the western edge. Seeing many 1 and 2" reports...definitely some spots higher than that by now. Freezing rain is/was occurring in the forecasted zone between NE IA, WI/IL border, and southern WI (highest amts on elevated surfaces). Doesn't appear to be significant yet. Heaviest precip will move off early Sat AM replaced by light freezing drizzle or mist throughout the morning ahead.
  1
Heavy snow coming down now Platteville to Madison to Watertown. Up to 2" reported southwest of Madison seems on target. Dry air holding tight in Green Bay (NE WI). Wintry mix, freezing rain, and rain in the far south...could see freezing rain down near the WI/IL border but temps near/above freezing still in Janesville. Heavy precipitation tonight, lighter tomorrow into the mid-day hours. Round #2 Sat PM.
Dry air to overcome and no reports yet but the whole nine yards wrapped up in that precip zone. Snow on the northern fringe. Wintry mix or freezing rain could develop along the WI/IL border. Moving east tonight. Temps have cooler to the freezing mark in SW WI.
Should be ready by around 2PM. It was helpful to wait for the 12z EC. Stay tuned!
Big differences on morning model runs. 00/06z EC/GFS have came in weaker/further east with the heavy snow focusing on southeast WI. Short range models(NAM, etc) coming in right now much different from EC/GFS and support the previous forecast. I will wait to make changes until full 12z run has arrived later this morning but I think we might need to blend them together. Then the risk of freezing rain along the WI-IL border. There is ALOT to clear up on the forecast this afternoon! CORRECTION (graphic image on the right should say "06Z GFS")
Will need to give more attention to late Friday night/early Saturday morning. The attached image is for 12AM Sat showing snow breaking out in southern WI. Latest runs showing more support for this. Also freezing rain risk increasing along the WI/IL border that needs a close look. Otherwise everything else on track. May need to boost snow totals per short range models but will vet that with the 12z Friday model runs.
Very icy/slippery conditions have developed across central and northern Wisconsin. Seeing reports of ice covered roads especially central WI. Travel carefully!
travel not advised between Tomah and La Crosse. Several reports of icy glaze on roads with developing wintry mix. Moving into northern WI.
nothing showing up right now except a blip in SW WI. Radar reflectivities will develop and expand across WI today. Light wintry mix, snow(north), and scattered rain showers south. Temperatures still in low 20's north..rising in the south. Slippery roads possible.

Archives

January 10, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

January 11, 2020

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (10)
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 W NORTH BAY, WI
58 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 NE KENOSHA, WI
55 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 W CUDAHY, WI
54 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
51 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 ESE SHEBOYGAN, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 ENE PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
44 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 SW FOND DU LAC, WI
41 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 ENE MONROE, WI
41 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 SSW HOWARDS GROVE, WI
40 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 NNE MAPLE BLUFF, WI
40 MPH
HEAVY RAIN (2)
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
KENOSHA, WI
0.15"
Heavy Rain
HEAVY RAIN
BROOKFIELD, WI
0.10"
SNOW (117)
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
1 SSW SUPERIOR, WI
7.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
2 SSW SUPERIOR, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NE DODGEVILLE, WI
4.4"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNW KENOSHA, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW BEAVER DAM, WI
3.9"
SNOW
SNOW
7 SE AVOCA, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
CASCADE, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 W BEAVER DAM, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW BEAVER DAM, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW MIDDLETON, WI
3.2"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N ELMWOOD PARK, WI
3.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW TWO RIVERS, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W SINSINAWA, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ENE SUPERIOR, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
CUBA CITY, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
EAGLE, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
GRAFTON, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
JACKSON, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LODI, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
MEQUON, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
RACINE, WI
3.0"
Snow
SNOW
CROSS PLAINS, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N WAUKESHA, WI
2.9"
SNOW
SNOW
4 NNE VERONA, WI
2.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 W ST NAZIANZ, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
HORICON, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
SINSINAWA, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WNW BROOKFIELD, WI
2.6"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SE SUPERIOR, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 S SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
CASSVILLE, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
7 ESE SUPERIOR, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
ST. PETER, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
NEW HOLSTEIN, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW FOND DU LAC, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NE MAPLE BLUFF, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE LAKE WISCONSIN, WI
2.3"
SNOW
SNOW
OCONOMOWOC, WI
2.3"
SNOW
SNOW
BROWN DEER, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
COLUMBUS, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S COLUMBUS, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ESE SOUTH BYRON, WI
2.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE OCONOMOWOC, WI
2.1"
SNOW
SNOW
BRISTOL, WI
2.1"
SNOW
SNOW
5 SE DODGEVILLE, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
TWO RIVERS, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
2.0"
Snow
SNOW
PLYMOUTH, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W SHOREWOOD, WI
1.9"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE WEST ALLIS, WI
1.9"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SW SHEBOYGAN, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW KEWASKUM, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSE FOND DU LAC, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
5 ENE COLUMBUS, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 W MILWAUKEE, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
BENTON, WI
1.7"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE MAPLE BLUFF, WI
1.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW WEST BEND, WI
1.6"
SNOW
SNOW
MERTON, WI
1.6"
SNOW
SNOW
THERESA, WI
1.6"
SNOW
SNOW
6 SE DODGEVILLE, WI
1.6"
SNOW
SNOW
3 N KOHLER, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
4 WSW HOWARDS GROVE, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E COTTAGE GROVE, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ENE CHILTON, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE MONONA, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNW TWO RIVERS, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WSW ROCK SPRINGS, WI
1.4"
SNOW
SNOW
3 E MAPLE BLUFF, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW OMRO, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
2 W KENOSHA, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 S BROOKS, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WNW SLINGER, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
KEWAUNEE, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
WATERLOO, WI
1.2"
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
6 WSW PORTAGE, WI
1.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E GREEN LAKE, WI
1.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NE DENMARK, WI
1.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NE MCFARLAND, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNE EPHRAIM, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S REEDSBURG, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S WATERTOWN, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW HARTFORD, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW WATERTOWN, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 S MOUNT HOREB, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SE PORTAGE, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNW SHEBOYGAN, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ESE MONTELLO, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
7 SW PORTAGE, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 NE PLYMOUTH, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
SURING, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
MUSCODA, WI
1.0"
Snow
SNOW
COLUMBUS, WI
1.0"
Snow
SNOW
OCONOMOWOC, WI
1.0"
Snow
SNOW
FOND DU LAC, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
DEERFIELD, WI
0.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE RANDOM LAKE, WI
0.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W ALLENTON, WI
0.7"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SE THERESA, WI
0.7"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSE STEUBEN, WI
0.6"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NW JOHNSON CREEK, WI
0.6"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SSW ROCKBRIDGE, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
EASTMAN, WI
0.5"
Snow
SNOW
ALLENTON, WI
0.5"
Snow
SNOW
FOND DU LAC, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
OREGON, WI
0.4"
SNOW
SNOW
ASHWAUBENON, WI
0.4"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SE MONTICELLO, WI
0.3"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WSW GLENDALE, WI
0.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE WEST ALLIS, WI
0.1"
Snow
SNOW
PLYMOUTH, WI
T
FREEZING RAIN (13)
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
2 SE MONTICELLO, WI
0.3"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
1 SSE SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
0.2"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
6 SE DODGEVILLE, WI
0.2"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
JANESVILLE, WI
0.2"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
JACKSON, WI
0.1"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
ELKHORN, WI
0.1"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
RACINE, WI
0.1"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
6 NNW ELKHORN, WI
0.1"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
1 SE WEST ALLIS, WI
0.1"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
2 ESE LAC LA BELLE, WI
0.1"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
1 WNW OCONOMOWOC, WI
0.1"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
2 S WALES, WI
0.1"
FREEZING RAIN
FREEZING RAIN
2 NNE MERTON, WI
0.1"
OTHER (1)
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
1 SSE MILWAUKEE, WI