MON 6:16 AM - Making a less second adjustment to the snowfall forecast adding a 6-10" to western WI. Outside of upper Michigan all models show the highest amounts between Wisconsin Rapids and Eau Claire. I didn't want to over-adjust. I like the 3-6". Current radar reflectivies are a tad weak but they will intensify throughout the day. Trimmed the snow amounts back in eastern WI where temperatures are still in the 40's from Oshkosh over to Sheboygan and up into Door County. Confidence level has improved to "Average".
SAT PM LIVE STREAM
SAT UPDATE - Models today generally agree on accumulating snow for much of Wisconsin on Monday as the low reorganizes over the state. Some models heavier than others(see maps). The other issue is that temperatures reach near 50F on Sunday in southeast half of Wisconsin, then snow on Monday which makes me think there will be some compaction and perhaps some melting on contact in the south. Didn't want to overreact because models clearly show snow across all of Wisconsin by late Monday night. I tried to follow the current snowpack line across central WI with the 2-6". But overall, Monday intrigues me. Keep an eye out! -JP
FRI UPDATE -Snow is likely across northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan on Monday, perhaps into early Tuesday AM.
It's hard to say what magnitude of snow accumulation will occur right now. Models/ensembles are not in total agreement. It seems at the worst several inches (perhaps 6" or more) could fall over portions of northern WI. On the other hand there are many models weaker or with a different location on the heaviest snows altogether. I want to wait a little longer to see how models handle the somewhat erratic reorganization of the low. Getting snow into central(certainly southern WI) feels like an uphill battle at this stage so need to make sure it's legit before going down that path.
I will be keeping an eye on it this weekend.