• News
  • 7-Day
  • Updates
  • Storms
  • Monthly
Wisconsin Weather

NOV 27, 2019 | Thanksgiving Storm Ending Today; Increasing Winds

LAST UPDATE : NOV 27, 2019

WEDS 7:30AM - wind gusts will increase into 30-45 MPH range as the surface low pulls away.

TUES 12:30PM - Updated maps and wrote official forecast (see blog post below). Waiting to do a live video stream this afternoon and will use that to finish out this event forecast. -JP

MON 6:20PM - Just wanted to demonstrate the higher end snow total potential in this FB post.

MON 1:20 PM - No changes to previous forecast based on 12z run. I strongly considered pushing the 4-8" to a 5-10", but looking at 12Z NAM showing some weakness across northern Wisconsin for snow amounts. I feel better about 4-8" still. Tomorrow morning I will reassess everything again and issue the final forecast. I highlighted Minneapolis as one place that could see those locally higher 8"+ amounts. Also highlighting the Marquette MI area.

MON 9:00AM - A northward shift and slightly stronger storm since the last update resulted a in pretty large shift north of the snow band. This was kind of expected. Moving forward with "Major Storm" verbiage; between wind and snow and Thanksgiving travel I think it's the best strategy. This brings the last 7 days of forecasts together. Crazy how this storm is backing into what I initially laid out last Monday after several days of whatever. Confidence level remains average... I will feel better on Tuesday when short range models arrive.

Wisconsin Weather
Wisconsin Weather

HEAVY SNOW - I considered a 5-9" zone for northwest Wisconsin. NAM high res is at the edge of it's forecast period and gave me reason to hold back. I feel more comfortable with 4-8", locally higher amounts. This puts us in a great position to add detail of short range models on Tuesday and avoid shooting in the dark today. Normally with a major system you could nail down the narrow heavy snow band. But this one is a little different; models haven't always been coincident with heavy snow features which leads to a wider band. Thus 4-8". In conclusion; I know 8"+ amounts will occur. Just a matter of where. One place is upper Michigan towards Ashland where the combination of better snow ratios and lake effect could push totals towards 12".

The 0-1" zone; probably won't see snow until mid-day Wednesday. Not much faith in accumulation there.

WINDY WEDNESDAY- Wednesday into Wednesday night will be the windiest timeframe. Like the last system, because the low pressure track is directly through Wisconsin the winds will be weak on Tuesday PM. However wind gusts will increase on the southern and northern fringes first, then surge out of the west as the storm pulls away. I'm forecasting the highest wind gusts along lake Michigan in eastern Wisconsin, down along and south of the WI/IL border. 40-50 MPH. I also pulled it through upper Michigan...though it might be more like 35-45 MPH there (away from the lake). For the rest of Wisconsin I like the 30-40 MPH range; especially with the aforementioned weakness due to low pressure center passage. See map below.

EC model wind forecast for Wednesday morning. Wisconsin in a hole relative to other places, but wind gusts will increase during the day Wednesday after the surface low passes.
EC model wind forecast for Wednesday morning. Wisconsin in a hole relative to other places, but wind gusts will increase during the day Wednesday after the surface low passes.

HEAVY RAIN - On yesterday's update I had little faith for heavy rain. I still won't go crazy with it; expect the dry slot to power through. Today I feel that with the northern shift and slightly stronger system; we can pull the 0.5-1.0" into eastern Wisconsin quite confidently. Not a big story outside of places like Door County, far east-central Wisconsin where we could see 1.0" amounts.

Next update this afternoon after 12z models along with the official blog post/story.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Snow


Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain
0.5-1.0"
1-2"
2-3"
3-6"
6-10"
10"+

Wind Gust

Wind Gust (MPH)
<20 MPH
20-30 MPH
30-40 MPH
40-50 MPH
50-60 MPH
60+ MPH

Travel Hazard

Travel Hazard
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High

Start and End Times


Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Heavy Snow, High Wind, Heavy Rain
Start
TUE 3:00 PM - Nov 26, 2019
End
WED 6:00 PM - Nov 27, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Comments

Write comment here...
Add Media

Archives

November 26, 2019

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

November 27, 2019

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (38)
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
56 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
7 WNW SAND BAY, WI
55 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 E RACINE, WI
55 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
13 NE SAND BAY, WI
54 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 W CUDAHY, WI
53 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 W NORTH BAY, WI
52 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 WSW NORTH BAY, WI
52 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 NNW SUPERIOR, WI
51 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 SSW HOWARDS GROVE, WI
51 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
MARSHFIELD, WI
51 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 SE EAGLE, WI
50 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 ENE PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
50 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 NNE WAUKESHA, WI
49 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 SW FOND DU LAC, WI
48 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 SSW POTTER LAKE, WI
48 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
WISCONSIN RAPIDS, WI
48 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
WEST MILWAUKEE, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 WSW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 NNE MAPLE BLUFF, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 NW WEST MILWAUKEE, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 SW ASHLAND, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 ENE MONROE, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
7 WNW SPRING GREEN, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 NE KENOSHA, WI
46 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 ESE SHEBOYGAN, WI
46 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 ENE BUTLER, WI
45 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
OSHKOSH, WI
45 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 SSE WATERTOWN, WI
44 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 WNW BURLINGTON, WI
44 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
5 SSW JANESVILLE, WI
44 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 WNW MINERAL POINT, WI
44 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
ARBOR VITAE, WI
43 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 NNW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
43 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 E WEST BEND, WI
43 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
STURGEON BAY, WI
43 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 N PARDEEVILLE, WI
41 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 NNE JUNEAU, WI
40 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 N WEST BARABOO, WI
40 MPH
HEAVY RAIN (11)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE EPHRAIM, WI
1.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WASHINGTON ISLAND, WI
1.37"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WAUPACA, WI
1.3"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 WSW ABRAMS, WI
1.27"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MARINETTE, WI
1.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
TWO RIVERS, WI
1.13"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SHAWANO, WI
1.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WAUTOMA, WI
1.09"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
STILES, WI
1.08"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
KIEL, WI
1.06"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
DENMARK, WI
1.02"
SNOW (149)
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
GILE, WI
20.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
4.1 ENE CORNUCOPIA, WI
15.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
4 E EAGLE RIVER, WI
13.8"
SNOW
SNOW
3 S EAGLE RIVER, WI
13.3"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
2 SSW POPLAR, WI
12.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 NW GLEN FLORA, WI
11.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
6 SW BUTTERNUT, WI
10.5"
SNOW
SNOW
6 SW BUTTERNUT, WI
10.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
7 ESE SUPERIOR, WI
10.4"
SNOW
SNOW
MENOMONIE, WI
10.2"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
MANITOWISH WATERS, WI
10.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
S EAGLE RIVER, WI
10.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNW LUBLIN, WI
10.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 NE CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
9.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E BLOOMER, WI
9.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E MENOMONIE, WI
9.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
3 W PRENTICE, WI
9.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
5 SE PHILLIPS, WI
9.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
RHINELANDER, WI
9.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WNW CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
9.4"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
2 NNW MELLEN, WI
9.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N MENOMONIE, WI
9.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
5 NNE BRULE, WI
9.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
8 N TOMAHAWK, WI
9.0"
SNOW
SNOW
CORNELL, WI
9.0"
SNOW
SNOW
ELMWOOD, WI
9.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
MINOCQUA, WI
9.0"
SNOW
SNOW
BALDWIN, WI
8.9"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
1 S PHILLIPS, WI
8.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S PHILLIPS, WI
8.7"
SNOW
SNOW
SPRING VALLEY, WI
8.6"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
GRAND VIEW, WI
8.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E BRUCE, WI
8.5"
SNOW
SNOW
5 NNE CORNELL, WI
8.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
5 S ASHLAND, WI
8.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
NEW POST, WI
8.3"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
PRESQUE ISLE, WI
8.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW ROBERTS, WI
8.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E ELLSWORTH, WI
8.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW DURAND, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
5 S HERBSTER, WI
8.0"
SNOW
SNOW
CEDAR FALLS, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
4 SE WOODRUFF, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
SPREAD EAGLE, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
MERRILL, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
LAKE TOMAHAWK, WI
8.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
PARK FALLS, WI
7.6"
SNOW
SNOW
PARK FALLS, WI
7.6"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
4 NNW NEW POST, WI
7.5"
SNOW
SNOW
5 SW NYE, WI
7.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N CUMBERLAND, WI
7.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
4 NNE SARONA, WI
7.4"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
4 WSW NORTHWOODS BEACH, WI
7.3"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
ASHLAND, WI
7.1"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
2 N MOQUAH, WI
7.1"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N MOQUAH, WI
7.1"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
2 WSW PHILLIPS, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
7.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
BIRCHWOOD, WI
7.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
4 N AMNICON FALLS S.P., WI
7.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
3 WNW CLAM LAKE, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WNW CLAM LAKE, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
NORTHFIELD, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
ELK MOUND, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
BOYCEVILLE, WI
7.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
SARONA, WI
7.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
ANTIGO, WI
6.8"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
BENNETT, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSW BARRE MILLS, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3SE DEER PARK, WI
6.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
2 SW BAYFIELD, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SE SPOONER, WI
6.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
2 NW ARGONNE, WI
6.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
PENCE, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
MEDFORD, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
7 NE TILDEN, WI
6.4"
SNOW
SNOW
BARRON, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW DURAND, WI
6.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
1 SSW RADISSON, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WNW EAU CLAIRE, WI
6.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
1 NW HURLEY, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
DALLAS, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LA CROSSE NWS OFFICE, WI
6.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
ARBOR VITAE, WI
5.9"
SNOW
SNOW
EAU CLAIRE, WI
5.8"
SNOW
SNOW
MARSHFIELD, WI
5.8"
SNOW
SNOW
RHINELANDER, WI
5.8"
SNOW
SNOW
CUMBERLAND, WI
5.5"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
WAUSAU, WI
5.4"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E LA POINTE, WI
5.3"
SNOW
SNOW
3 W SAINT JOSEPH, WI
5.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S BLOOMER, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 W HAYWARD, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
WITHEE, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
NELSON, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE HUDSON, WI
4.8"
SNOW
SNOW
5 N HOLMEN, WI
4.8"
SNOW
SNOW
MONDOVI, WI
4.7"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW STONE LAKE, WI
4.6"
SNOW
SNOW
6 SSE LA CROSSE, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNE HUDSON, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
5 WNW CHETEK, WI
4.3"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NNW FRENCHVILLE, WI
4.1"
SNOW
SNOW
NE WAUSAU, WI
4.1"
SNOW
SNOW
NEILLSVILLE 4NNE, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
RIVER FALLS, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
SPENCER, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 E DALLAS, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
COON VALLEY, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW PHILLIPS, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
12 W DRUMMOND, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WNW SEELEY, WI
3.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NW SCHOFIELD, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
TOMAH, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E VIROQUA, WI
3.4"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NE WAUSAU, WI
3.3"
SNOW
SNOW
WESTON, WI
3.1"
SNOW
SNOW
STRATFORD, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
FOUNTAIN CITY, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
HUDSON, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSE LONGWOOD, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NE STEVENSTOWN, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
BLACK RIVER FALLS, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 E KNOWLTON, WI
3.0"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
4 SSE WEBSTER, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SW ASHLAND, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SW SPENCER, WI
2.8"
SNOW
SNOW
CRIVITZ, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WSW WEST SALEM, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
WEST SALEM, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 W FRENCHVILLE, WI
2.3"
SNOW
SNOW
S PLOVER, WI
2.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW LA CROSSE, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S DE SOTO, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
9 E AMBERG, WI
1.9"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N ONALASKA, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
ROSHOLT, WI
1.7"
SNOW
SNOW
PITTSVILLE, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE FRENCH ISLAND, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NW ONALASKA, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E LA CROSSE, WI
1.3"
SNOW
SNOW
5 WSW WARRENS, WI
1.2"
SNOW
SNOW
4 ESE LEMONWEIR, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E STRONGS PRAIRIE, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
YUBA, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 W ARCADIA, WI
0.7"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NW MELROSE, WI
0.1"
HEAVY SNOW
HEAVY SNOW
EAGLE RIVER, WI
-
OTHER (9)
NON-TSTM WND DMG
NON-TSTM WND DMG
1 SW MERTON, WI
-
NON-TSTM WND DMG
NON-TSTM WND DMG
1 E POLONIA, WI
-
NON-TSTM WND DMG
NON-TSTM WND DMG
SILVER CLIFF, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
GREEN BAY, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
OCONTO, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
STURGEON BAY, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
2 ENE LITTLE STURGEON, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
2 WSW NAMUR, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
3 SE POTAWATOMI STATE P, WI
-