2:30PM WEDS - Maps updated. Confidence increasing. Looking at ECMWF and short range models; they're both saying the same thing just SLIGHTLY different snow totals. I support the higher totals of the short range models, the lower range of the 5-8"(5) corresponds to the EC). The tricky spots are next to Lake Michigan from Milwaukee down to Chicago. It is an off-shore wind so I think the 5-8" amounts COULD run right up to the lake shore, maybe a few miles inland. I know with urban area heat sinks like Milwaukee and areas south, don't feel anything close to 8" is possible. This has given me trouble in the past. Think highest amounts more likely inland. Other trouble spot was Madison. I think you guys will be 1-3" and I put the lower bound of the 2-5" through you.
The western edge of the snow probably won't be very generous. With snow falling in the mid day hours; I expect warmer temperatures to limit snow accumulation(on the west edge).
The GFS kind feels like the outlier now. I know it likes to bias on the southern side sometimes (it could still be right). But feeling better about things this afternoon. -JP
5:00PM TUES - Model consistency remains poor but generally focusing in on the region from NE Missouri to Rockford into southeast Wisconsin. Disagreement on amounts as well. I like the 3-6" range for starters in southeast Wisconsin. I like the wrap around aspect of this system. Curious to see what the high-res models say. The NAM is furthest north, EC furthest south but arguably more inline with GFS ensembles. So I'm leaning towards a southward shift in the next run or two. I would entertain the NAM idea later in the forecast cycle, but not right now as the medium range models have the nod (aka NAM = outlier). Maintaining below average confidence level. Typically with these bigger systems I'd like to see more consistency. The low center track is well of east of normal trajectory but it does deepen quickly while the pressure gradient remains further west. Still would not surprise me if it came in wetter/snowier, seems to be the trend lately.
PREVIOUS - MONDAY - Initially and for a long time this has looked like a downright snowstorm for portions of Wisconsin. On runs today we've seen the 12 GFS/EC back off quite a bit. Weaker storm, further south. Still bringing accumulating snow to southern Wisconsin, in that 2-5" range. 12z models showed a preference toward heaviest snows further southwest. The timing has changed as well with most snow action during the day Thursday. That timing is unfavorable for accumulation but doesn't make it impossible.
I want to see how models perform tonight. Maybe tomorrow models bounce back. With confidence below average again, this is another situation where it's best to not get too far ahead of ourselves.