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OCT 31, 2019 | [UPDATED] - 5-8" in portions of Southern Wisconsin Thursday

LAST UPDATE : OCT 30, 2019

2:30PM WEDS - Maps updated. Confidence increasing. Looking at ECMWF and short range models; they're both saying the same thing just SLIGHTLY different snow totals. I support the higher totals of the short range models, the lower range of the 5-8"(5) corresponds to the EC). The tricky spots are next to Lake Michigan from Milwaukee down to Chicago. It is an off-shore wind so I think the 5-8" amounts COULD run right up to the lake shore, maybe a few miles inland. I know with urban area heat sinks like Milwaukee and areas south, don't feel anything close to 8" is possible. This has given me trouble in the past. Think highest amounts more likely inland. Other trouble spot was Madison. I think you guys will be 1-3" and I put the lower bound of the 2-5" through you.

The western edge of the snow probably won't be very generous. With snow falling in the mid day hours; I expect warmer temperatures to limit snow accumulation(on the west edge).

The GFS kind feels like the outlier now. I know it likes to bias on the southern side sometimes (it could still be right). But feeling better about things this afternoon. -JP

9:00AM WEDS

5:00PM TUES - Model consistency remains poor but generally focusing in on the region from NE Missouri to Rockford into southeast Wisconsin. Disagreement on amounts as well. I like the 3-6" range for starters in southeast Wisconsin. I like the wrap around aspect of this system. Curious to see what the high-res models say. The NAM is furthest north, EC furthest south but arguably more inline with GFS ensembles. So I'm leaning towards a southward shift in the next run or two. I would entertain the NAM idea later in the forecast cycle, but not right now as the medium range models have the nod (aka NAM = outlier). Maintaining below average confidence level. Typically with these bigger systems I'd like to see more consistency. The low center track is well of east of normal trajectory but it does deepen quickly while the pressure gradient remains further west. Still would not surprise me if it came in wetter/snowier, seems to be the trend lately.

PREVIOUS - MONDAY - Initially and for a long time this has looked like a downright snowstorm for portions of Wisconsin. On runs today we've seen the 12 GFS/EC back off quite a bit. Weaker storm, further south. Still bringing accumulating snow to southern Wisconsin, in that 2-5" range. 12z models showed a preference toward heaviest snows further southwest. The timing has changed as well with most snow action during the day Thursday. That timing is unfavorable for accumulation but doesn't make it impossible.

I want to see how models perform tonight. Maybe tomorrow models bounce back. With confidence below average again, this is another situation where it's best to not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Plenty of uncertainty with this storm but looking like snow is likely across portions of southern WI
Plenty of uncertainty with this storm but looking like snow is likely across portions of southern WI
JP

Forecast Maps

Snow


Wind Gust

Wind Gust (MPH)
<20 MPH
20-30 MPH
30-40 MPH
40-50 MPH
50-60 MPH
60+ MPH

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Heavy Snow
Start
WED 9:00 PM - Oct 30, 2019
End
THU 6:00 PM - Oct 31, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Archives

October 30, 2019

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

October 31, 2019

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

Storm Reports

SNOW (173)
SNOW
SNOW
BROWNS LAKE, WI
8.0"
SNOW
SNOW
BURLINGTON, WI
7.5"
SNOW
SNOW
ELKHORN, WI
7.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW MIDDLETON, WI
7.5"
SNOW
SNOW
SAUKVILLE, WI
7.4"
SNOW
SNOW
2 W GERMANTOWN, WI
7.3"
SNOW
SNOW
6 E WIND LAKE, WI
7.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW PALMYRA, WI
7.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W DELAFIELD, WI
7.1"
SNOW
SNOW
GENOA CITY, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
GRAFTON, WI
7.0"
SNOW
SNOW
HARTFORD, WI
7.0"
Snow
SNOW
MILWAUKEE, WI
7"
SNOW
SNOW
THIENSVILLE, WI
6.9"
SNOW
SNOW
MEQUON, WI
6.8"
SNOW
SNOW
BROOKFIELD, WI
6.8"
SNOW
SNOW
4 W NEW BERLIN, WI
6.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NW WAUKESHA, WI
6.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW JANESVILLE, WI
6.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 W BEAVER DAM, WI
6.7"
SNOW
SNOW
3 N BRISTOL, WI
6.6"
SNOW
SNOW
GREENDALE, WI
6.6"
SNOW
SNOW
WEST ALLIS, WI
6.6"
SNOW
SNOW
WEST BEND, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
WALES, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
4 W CEDARBURG, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 ENE BUTLER, WI
6.5"
SNOW
SNOW
GLENDALE, WI
6.4"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N ELM GROVE, WI
6.3"
SNOW
SNOW
SINSINAWA, WI
6.3"
SNOW
SNOW
MUSKEGO, WI
6.3"
SNOW
SNOW
TWO RIVERS, WI
6.2"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SSE SULLIVAN, WI
6.1"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SE BOHNERS LAKE, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
KEWASKUM, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W DELAVAN, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SW OREGON, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WSW BELOIT, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S WALES, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNE CUDAHY, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
ROCHESTER, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
TWIN LAKES, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
STURTEVANT, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
WATERFORD, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
NEW BERLIN, WI
6.0"
Snow
SNOW
OCONOMOWOC, WI
6.0"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NE DODGEVILLE, WI
5.9"
SNOW
SNOW
2 WSW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
5.8"
SNOW
SNOW
NORTH PRAIRIE, WI
5.8"
SNOW
SNOW
WINDSOR, WI
5.6"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N ELMWOOD PARK, WI
5.6"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N MILWAUKEE, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W OCONOMOWOC, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E WAUWATOSA, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 E THIENSVILLE, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSW STURTEVANT, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WNW FRANKLIN, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
MUKWONAGO, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
WHITEWATER, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
PLATTEVILLE, WI
5.5"
SNOW
SNOW
KENOSHA, WI
5.3"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW SHEBOYGAN, WI
5.3"
SNOW
SNOW
2 NNE MAPLE BLUFF, WI
5.1"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SE BIG BEND, WI
5.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNE GERMANTOWN, WI
5.1"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NW MUKWONAGO, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W WATERFORD, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LODI, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
5 E SEXTONVILLE, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
BELGIUM, WI
5.0"
SNOW
SNOW
6 SE DODGEVILLE, WI
4.9"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE NORTH BAY, WI
4.9"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNE MERTON, WI
4.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S WATERTOWN, WI
4.7"
SNOW
SNOW
2 S MIDDLETON, WI
4.7"
SNOW
SNOW
BELOIT, WI
4.7"
SNOW
SNOW
HORICON, WI
4.7"
SNOW
SNOW
MIDDLETON, WI
4.7"
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI
4.7"
SNOW
SNOW
4 WSW LANCASTER, WI
4.6"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WSW ROCK SPRINGS, WI
4.6"
SNOW
SNOW
MUSCODA, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
BEETOWN, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSW BROWN DEER, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WNW MAZOMANIE, WI
4.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WSW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
4.4"
SNOW
SNOW
WAUKESHA, WI
4.3"
SNOW
SNOW
OREGON, WI
4.2"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S REEDSBURG, WI
4.2"
SNOW
SNOW
ITHACA, WI
4.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 NW BURTON, WI
4.2"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SSW SOUTH WAYNE, WI
4.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SW EAGLE, WI
4.1"
SNOW
SNOW
FOND DU LAC, WI
4.1"
SNOW
SNOW
EVANSVILLE, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
MCFARLAND, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE RICHLAND CENTER, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NE MCFARLAND, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSW KENOSHA, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SW SHOREWOOD HILLS, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
PELL LAKE, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
WISCONSIN DELLS, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
TAYCHEEDAH, WI
4.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E FOND DU LAC, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE HORICON, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
FORT ATKINSON, WI
3.8"
SNOW
SNOW
GERMANTOWN, WI
3.7"
SNOW
SNOW
BENTON, WI
3.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW RILEY, WI
3.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N PARDEEVILLE, WI
3.7"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E MILLHOME, WI
3.7"
SNOW
SNOW
THERESA, WI
3.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 S FOND DU LAC, WI
3.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE JEFFERSON, WI
3.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N FOND DU LAC, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 W LANCASTER, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
4 SE SULLIVAN, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
5 SSW DOUSMAN, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 W JANESVILLE, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 ENE WHITE CREEK, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
DELAVAN, WI
3.5"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E COTTAGE GROVE, WI
3.4"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSE WATERTOWN, WI
3.4"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SE MONTICELLO, WI
3.3"
SNOW
SNOW
3 W SUN PRAIRIE, WI
3.3"
SNOW
SNOW
6 WSW PORTAGE, WI
3.2"
SNOW
SNOW
NEW GLARUS, WI
3.2"
SNOW
SNOW
3 N MAPLE BLUFF, WI
3.1"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SW DE PERE, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
4 NE PADDOCK LAKE, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
JEFFERSON, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LYNDON STATION, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N PALMYRA, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
2 E WEST BEND, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW BEAVER DAM, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SSW BELOIT, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 SE STOUGHTON, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E GREEN LAKE, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNE BERLIN, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N DEERFIELD, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
NEWBURG, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI
3.0"
SNOW
SNOW
PARDEEVILLE, WI
2.9"
SNOW
SNOW
NW APPLETON, WI
2.7"
SNOW
SNOW
SHIOCTON, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NE GERMANTOWN, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
DANE COUNTY REGIONAL AI, WI
2.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 WSW ABRAMS, WI
2.1"
SNOW
SNOW
ASHWAUBENON, WI
2.1"
SNOW
SNOW
2 N OCONOMOWOC, WI
2.1"
SNOW
SNOW
2 SSW GRAND MARSH, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W NEW HOLSTEIN, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 N LANCASTER, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
LA VALLE, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
RICHLAND CENTER, WI
2.0"
SNOW
SNOW
SW KEWAUNEE, WI
1.9"
SNOW
SNOW
MERTON, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
2 S OAK CREEK, WI
1.8"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NE DODGEVILLE, WI
1.7"
SNOW
SNOW
MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL, WI
1.5"
SNOW
SNOW
3 SSE STEUBEN, WI
1.4"
SNOW
SNOW
BOSCOBEL, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
GAYS MILLS, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
1 W COLOMA, WI
1.0"
SNOW
SNOW
EASTMAN, WI
0.7"
SNOW
SNOW
1 ESE VIROQUA, WI
0.6"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNW PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 WNW MOUNT ZION, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
MAUSTON, WI
0.5"
SNOW
SNOW
1 E VIROQUA, WI
0.4"
SNOW
SNOW
1 NNE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
0.2"
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