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OCT 21, 2019 | Monday Rain, Windy with Strong Low Passage

LAST UPDATE : OCT 20, 2019

UPDATE 2PM SUN - EC is still strongest with the wind gusts developing Monday afternoon in eastern Wisconsin. That may be but I'm still not ready to go that far. Will settle for a NAM/GFS blend with 35-45MPH forecast, within a six hour window from 10AM to 4PM. It's a narrow timeframe. On Tuesday the low pivots around and winds flow out of the west with strong gusts in that 30-40 MPH range it appears. Rainfall amounts in the 0.5-1.0" look good! Moved start time back to 5AM MON and ending sooner. Will break Tuesday into it's own event.

-JP

ORIGINAL POST FRI 10/18

Scattered showers expect on Saturday will not have much impact. The next notable weather maker comes in on Monday morning (10/21).

Very similar evolution between this system and the previous headline blizzard to the west a week ago but with less cold air involved so we will not see snow. Models agree on a low track through Minnesota. Minnesota is kind of big state. At the time of writing (9AM FRI), the 00/06 models suite is showing BIG DIFFERENCES between EC and GFS, timing, rain amounts, wind speeds, and overall impact. My confidence level is in the Below Average category due to this rift.

00 ECMWF

The EC is further east with a track through far western/NW Wisconsin (roughly Albert Lea to E of Minneapolis to Ashland). The EC is considerably stronger with a sub 980mb low! It's kind of strange as usually GFS is the crazy one. EC does better job with pulling in moisture and is in every way, much more aggressive. I have to assume this is an outlier right now. Maybe this goes away on the next update?

EC at 4PM MON with very strong wind in Wisconsin. This seems too strong right now based on other models, but will watch this throughout the weekend.
EC at 4PM MON with very strong wind in Wisconsin. This seems too strong right now based on other models, but will watch this throughout the weekend.

06 GFS

GFS is weaker and more progressive, barely worth mentioning.

Canadian is also different like usual. NAM at the edge of the forecast period but looks like GFS.

The forecast for this storm could really escalate over the weekend. I'm going to put in a "dummy" wind and rainfall forecast for now. (Dummy = low effort generalization). I think it will change no matter what I zone in today. We will need an update this weekend once models come together, especially if the EC is correct.

Forecast Maps

Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain
0.5-1.0"
1-2"
2-3"
3-6"
6-10"
10"+

Wind Gust

Wind Gust (MPH)
<20 MPH
20-30 MPH
30-40 MPH
40-50 MPH
50-60 MPH
60+ MPH

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Light Rain, High Wind
Start
MON 5:00 AM - Oct 21, 2019
End
MON 9:00 PM - Oct 21, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Posts

Posts/Media not available

Archives

October 21, 2019

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Snow Accumulation 24Hr
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (17)
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 NNW SUPERIOR, WI
74 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
13 NE SAND BAY, WI
60 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 W CUDAHY, WI
52 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 E RACINE, WI
50 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 SE BAYFIELD, WI
49 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
APPLETON, WI
49 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
GREEN BAY, WI
48 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
2 SW FOND DU LAC, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
47 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 ENE PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
46 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
OSHKOSH, WI
46 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
RHINELANDER, WI
45 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 WNW BURLINGTON, WI
45 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 SSW HOWARDS GROVE, WI
45 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
3 ENE MONROE, WI
45 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 NE KENOSHA, WI
43 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
1 ESE SHEBOYGAN, WI
43 MPH
HEAVY RAIN (7)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSE WEBSTER, WI
1.99"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 NNE RANDALL, WI
1.72"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNE SIREN, WI
1.65"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 ENE YELLOWLAKE, WI
1.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ENE HAYWARD, WI
1.41"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
8 WNW MINONG, WI
1.31"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SW HAYWARD, WI
1.23"
OTHER (6)
FLOOD
FLOOD
SUAMICO, WI
-
NON-TSTM WND DMG
NON-TSTM WND DMG
2 W GREEN BAY, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
2 W ASHLAND, WI
-
LAKESHORE FLOOD
LAKESHORE FLOOD
1 N PORT WING, WI
-
COASTAL FLOOD
COASTAL FLOOD
OCONTO, WI
-
COASTAL FLOOD
COASTAL FLOOD
PESHTIGO, WI
-
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