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Wisconsin Weather

SEP 12, 2019 | Strong T-storms Possible with Cold Front Tonight

LAST UPDATE : SEP 12, 2019

Cold front will kick off scattered thunderstorms tonight, traveling northeast through WI overnight.
Cold front will kick off scattered thunderstorms tonight, traveling northeast through WI overnight.

9:00AM THU - No big changes to the outlook(please see previous updates below for more details) I pushed the target zone east slightly so that it touches the Mississippi River area in SW WI. A few storms in NE IA/SE MN could become severe. Again looking at a low grade damaging wind threat for much of Wisconsin given organization and strengthening wind fields.

On the heavy rain potential; really not too concerned about creating new problems. The big message is that it will aggravate pre-existing issues. I think one or two spots could get over 1.5" with t-storm activity. Typically cold front passages not the ideal situation for heavy rain due to it being a moving target. Despite this; not out of the question that moisture will get pinched in or south of La Crosse.

10:15AM WEDS - the morning round is likely to peak west of Wisconsin. During the evening/overnight Thursday I'm highlighting most of Wisconsin for a widespread low grade wind gust threat as the cold front sweeps through. The best instability will remained locked in Iowa. Elevated instability and strengthening wind fields should allow numerous storms to cross through the state. The surface will be cool, but not too cool which should allow wind gusts to cycle down.

JP

PREVIOUS UPDATE - On Thursday a cold front will sweep through the region. It won't make it into Wisconsin until THU night at the earliest. It may not completely pass through until Fri.

Thunderstorms will likely move into Minnesota or Iowa during the morning hours. How far east they get before weakening is not totally certain; but suspect it probably will be near to Minneapolis. In Wisconsin the surface warm front will get pushed south; perhaps south of Dubuque even.

During the afternoon the warm sector and reservoir of instability will build across Iowa/SE MN.Question is how far north can it get? My guess is not far; that the 12K high res NAM is pretty close. As for severe potential; it has all the pieces. Everything in the right spot and at the right magnitude - except for wind shear which is a bit weak for this time of year. My other knock is that the warm sector becomes very tiny 22-00Z and that it wouldn't be hard for early aft convection along the warm front to contaminate it. Mainly a function of that warm front becoming stationary and somewhat reinforced from the northeast.

Thursday PM warm sector and warm front position per the darker shades of red in southern WI.
Thursday PM warm sector and warm front position per the darker shades of red in southern WI.

JP

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Strong Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain
Start
THU 6:00 AM - Sep 12, 2019
End
FRI 3:00 AM - Sep 13, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Archives

September 12, 2019

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

September 13, 2019

24HR Radar Loop
24HR Radar Loop
Wind Gusts
Storm Reports

Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (3)
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
12 NE SAND BAY, WI
61 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
2 S MOUNT HOREB, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 NW DARLINGTON, WI
-
LARGE HAIL (1)
HAIL
HAIL
10 ENE GORDON, WI
0.88"
HEAVY RAIN (111)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE LAKE GENEVA, WI
5.74"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
5.61"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WSW KENOSHA, WI
4.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
4.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW SILVER LAKE, WI
4.38"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SW KENOSHA, WI
4.33"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ENOSHA, WI
4.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE BOSCOBEL, WI
4.22"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
FRANKLIN, WI
4.12"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ESE PELL LAKE, WI
4.06"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
EAST TROY, WI
4.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
3.93"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ALBANY, WI
3.87"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE BOSCOBEL, WI
3.67"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSW HALES CORNERS, WI
3.67"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
KENOSHA, WI
3.62"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ARCADIA, WI
3.53"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 N CLINTON, WI
3.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
TWIN LAKES, WI
3.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE MCFARLAND, WI
3.48"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WAUKESHA, WI
3.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
STEUBEN, WI
3.39"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
3.35"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
7 WNW SPRING GREEN, WI
3.33"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SW BELOIT, WI
3.21"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
LAKE GENEVA, WI
3.18"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NW NORTH BAY, WI
3.16"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CLINTON, WI
3.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ESE BROWNS LAKE, WI
3.11"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ESE NEW BERLIN, WI
3.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE GREENDALE, WI
3.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 E BURLINGTON, WI
3.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SE EAGLE, WI
3.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW ELKHORN, WI
3.01"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WIND LAKE, WI
3.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSW WEST ALLIS, WI
2.96"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSW KENOSHA, WI
2.91"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
DARLINGTON, WI
2.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ENE TWIN LAKES, WI
2.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE SAUK CITY, WI
2.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE HALES CORNERS, WI
2.87"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SSE HALES CORNERS, WI
2.85"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NNE WATERFORD NORTH, WI
2.84"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE MILWAUKEE, WI
2.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE POWERS LAKE, WI
2.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE ROCHESTER, WI
2.74"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SW FRANKLIN, WI
2.72"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SW PALMYRA, WI
2.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSW SAUK CITY, WI
2.68"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 ENE GREENDALE, WI
2.64"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ELKHORN, WI
2.64"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
COCHRANE, WI
2.62"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ENE FRANKLIN, WI
2.62"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 E WAUWATOSA, WI
2.61"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NE DODGEVILLE, WI
2.61"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PESHTIGO, WI
2.57"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 W JANESVILLE, WI
2.56"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE SAUKVILLE, WI
2.56"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNE ALLOUEZ, WI
2.51"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WNW NEW BERLIN, WI
2.46"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SW BUTLER, WI
2.45"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
DE SOTO, WI
2.44"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NW EASTMAN, WI
2.41"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
OCONTO, WI
2.41"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
7 NW STRATFORD, WI
2.36"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSW BELOIT, WI
2.34"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE SOUTH MILWAUKEE, WI
2.32"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NW CALEDONIA, WI
2.32"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S RICHLAND CENTER, WI
2.27"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
LODI, WI
2.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 WSW ABRAMS, WI
2.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
FENNIMORE, WI
2.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSE PLATTEVILLE, WI
2.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ROYALTON, WI
2.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WSW COMBINED LOCKS, WI
2.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSW GREEN BAY, WI
2.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNE GREENFIELD, WI
2.18"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S DE PERE, WI
2.17"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSE RIDGEWAY, WI
2.17"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WNW EVERGREEN, WI
2.14"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WRIGHTSTOWN, WI
2.09"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SSE STEUBEN, WI
2.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SW DARBOY, WI
2.06"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 ESE WAUPACA, WI
2.04"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 WNW BROOKFIELD, WI
2.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
1.85"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CRIVITZ, WI
1.85"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SCANDINAVIA, WI
1.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 E LA CROSSE, WI
1.77"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SPREAD EAGLE, WI
1.76"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 E VIROQUA, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 E MARSHLAND, WI
1.71"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S PLOVER, WI
1.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
NW APPLETON, WI
1.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WAUSAUKEE, WI
1.48"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
OSHKOSH, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
6 E BLACK RIVER FALLS, WI
1.37"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 ENE SPARTA, WI
1.36"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
NEW LONDON, WI
1.35"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNW VIROQUA, WI
1.31"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 ENE CATARACT, WI
1.3"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
AMHERST, WI
1.3"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CLINTONVILLE, WI
1.26"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
OMRO, WI
1.24"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
ROSHOLT, WI
1.24"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNE FRENCH ISLAND, WI
1.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
STRATFORD, WI
1.18"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WISCONSIN RAPIDS, WI
1.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSE NEW LISBON, WI
1.06"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 NE RHINELANDER, WI
1.05"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GREEN BAY, WI
1.03"
OTHER (26)
Amish Buggy
AMISH BUGGY
HILLSBORO, WI
2
FLOOD
FLOOD
LA CROSSE, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
MINERAL POINT, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
KENOSHA, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
PLAIN, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
PRAIRIE DU SAC, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
SAUK CITY, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
WOODMAN, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
5 WSW AVOCA, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
BELMONT, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
BLOOMINGTON, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
DICKEYVILLE, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
DODGEVILLE, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
DARLINGTON, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
FENNIMORE, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
1 NW NEW BERLIN, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
1 S GREENFIELD, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
1 SE FONTANA-ON-GENEVA, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
1 WNW MUSKEGO, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
2 SE MOUNT ZION, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
2 S BOSCOBEL, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
2 NE JANESVILLE, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
2 SW WEST ALLIS, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
2 W WEST ALLIS, WI
-
FLASH FLOOD
FLASH FLOOD
2 WSW WEST ALLIS, WI
-
NON-TSTM WND DMG
NON-TSTM WND DMG
MERCER, WI
-
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