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Wisconsin Weather

SEP 12, 2019 | Strong T-storms Possible with Cold Front Tonight

Cold front will kick off scattered thunderstorms tonight, traveling northeast through WI overnight.
Cold front will kick off scattered thunderstorms tonight, traveling northeast through WI overnight.

9:00AM THU - No big changes to the outlook(please see previous updates below for more details) I pushed the target zone east slightly so that it touches the Mississippi River area in SW WI. A few storms in NE IA/SE MN could become severe. Again looking at a low grade damaging wind threat for much of Wisconsin given organization and strengthening wind fields.

On the heavy rain potential; really not too concerned about creating new problems. The big message is that it will aggravate pre-existing issues. I think one or two spots could get over 1.5" with t-storm activity. Typically cold front passages not the ideal situation for heavy rain due to it being a moving target. Despite this; not out of the question that moisture will get pinched in or south of La Crosse.

10:15AM WEDS - the morning round is likely to peak west of Wisconsin. During the evening/overnight Thursday I'm highlighting most of Wisconsin for a widespread low grade wind gust threat as the cold front sweeps through. The best instability will remained locked in Iowa. Elevated instability and strengthening wind fields should allow numerous storms to cross through the state. The surface will be cool, but not too cool which should allow wind gusts to cycle down.

JP

PREVIOUS UPDATE - On Thursday a cold front will sweep through the region. It won't make it into Wisconsin until THU night at the earliest. It may not completely pass through until Fri.

Thunderstorms will likely move into Minnesota or Iowa during the morning hours. How far east they get before weakening is not totally certain; but suspect it probably will be near to Minneapolis. In Wisconsin the surface warm front will get pushed south; perhaps south of Dubuque even.

During the afternoon the warm sector and reservoir of instability will build across Iowa/SE MN.Question is how far north can it get? My guess is not far; that the 12K high res NAM is pretty close. As for severe potential; it has all the pieces. Everything in the right spot and at the right magnitude - except for wind shear which is a bit weak for this time of year. My other knock is that the warm sector becomes very tiny 22-00Z and that it wouldn't be hard for early aft convection along the warm front to contaminate it. Mainly a function of that warm front becoming stationary and somewhat reinforced from the northeast.

Thursday PM warm sector and warm front position per the darker shades of red in southern WI.
Thursday PM warm sector and warm front position per the darker shades of red in southern WI.

JP

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Strong Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain
Last Update
LAST UPDATE | SEPTEMBER 12
Start
THU 6:00 AM - Sep 12, 2019
End
FRI 3:00 AM - Sep 13, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class
Forecaster
Justin Poublon

Archives

September 12, 2019

24HR Radar Loop
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September 13, 2019

24HR Radar Loop
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Wind Gusts
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Storm Reports

TORNADO & FUNNEL CLOUD (1)
TORNADO
TORNADO
1 NNE POTOSI, WI
-
WIND GUSTS (3)
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
POTOSI, WI
40 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 S LANCASTER, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 WSW ELLENBORO, WI
-
LARGE HAIL (13)
HAIL
HAIL
2 E BAGLEY, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
2 SW PLATTEVILLE, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
PATCH GROVE, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
MONDOVI, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
ONEIDA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
TREMPEALEAU, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
4 NNW NEW POST, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
BOSCOBEL, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
BUTTERNUT, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
COLBY, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
5 SSW SPARTA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
1 SW SPARTA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
1 ENE RICHLAND CENTER, WI
0.25"
HEAVY RAIN (30)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PELL LAKE, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.71"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 E ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SW KENOSHA, WI
1.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.42"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW PELL LAKE, WI
1.42"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE UNION GROVE, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 W NORTH BAY, WI
1.38"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 W CUDAHY, WI
1.24"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W MUSKEGO, WI
1.24"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE SOUTH MILWAUKEE, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 N UNION GROVE, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ESE BELOIT, WI
1.22"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CUDAHY, WI
1.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GENOA CITY, WI
1.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW OAK CREEK, WI
1.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE WIND LAKE, WI
1.12"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SW RACINE, WI
1.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
1.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE GREENDALE, WI
1.04"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW BURLINGTON, WI
1.01"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
0.72"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SINSINAWA, WI
0.45"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
EASTMAN, WI
0.37"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S DE SOTO, WI
0.31"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NNW PLATTEVILLE, WI
0.15"
SNOW (1)
SNOW
SNOW
7 ESE SUPERIOR, WI
1.6"
OTHER (1)
FLOOD
FLOOD
GREEN BAY, WI
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