Well...Monday night did not go as planned. 3.0" in Muscoda and Brodhead. A few other surpises. Most of the heavy rain ended up in southern Wisconsin. This having to do with convective t-storms blocking the northward advance of moisture.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL - BELOW AVERAGE
The main thing is getting the word out. Making sure you are aware. Where the rain eventually drops should not be a surprise. If it doesn't come you'll understand why. What's needed from a forecaster standpoint is a blend between convective models and mid-range models. Still hard to pinpoint exactly where but southern WI is becoming more likely.
WED, THU, & FRI AM - Multiple chance for rain between today and Fri AM. The heaviest rains will depend on convective trends. This is not a recipe for confident forecasts. Convective models have the most activity across southwest and west-central WI. I'm losing hope original forecast for northern WI. Still wet with rain but less heavy I suspect; at least until THU PM or FRI AM when the cold front swings through.
Will update this event later this morning when 12z models are in. I think 2-4" storm total rain accumulation is a great baseline message. There could definitely be locally higher amounts. But before we speculate on those; will wait for a bit more model agreement.