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Wisconsin Weather

SEP 3, 2019 | Damaging Winds Possible Tonight Early Tuesday AM

LAST UPDATE : SEP 2, 2019

11:15PM -

10:38PM -

TUES AM |*EARLY TUES AM* | - While the environment is not super supportive of severe weather, the combination of organized thunderstorm activity PLUS strengthening mid level jet will make damaging wind gusts possible across much of Wisconsin. I don't think this will be a major event; just a large zone where winds could be potentially strong/severe.

Model simulation for early Tuesday AM (around 3am)
Model simulation for early Tuesday AM (around 3am)

The MOST LIKELY corridor will cross through Minneapolis MN southeast into western WI. Cannot rule out strong/damaging wind gusts into northern/NE/eastern WI or Michigan (due to dynamics). 12Z models today are pretty aggressive.

I prefer the less aggressive/weaker NAM 3k and NMMB. NAM and HRRR appear to be outliers. Likely to be some convective contamination in advance of the storms. Timing is very early during diurnal minimum. Just not 100% sure and model agreement on placement could be better. Will see how it develops across Minnesota tomorrow and go from there.

TUES AFT - Parameters and wind profiles remain strong into the early afternoon over eastern Wisconsin however the main dynamics/forcing will move out with morning storms. A little too quick. Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple isolated t-storms during the afternoon. Not expecting severe weather.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Severe Thunderstorms
Start
MON 10:00 PM - Sep 02, 2019
End
TUE 12:00 PM - Sep 03, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class

Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (12)
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
4 NNE EAU CLAIRE, WI
59 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
MOSINEE, WI
59 MPH
NON-TSTM WND GST
NON-TSTM WND GST
LA POINTE, WI
51 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
MARSHFIELD, WI
48 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
2 ENE HAYWARD, WI
45 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
2 ESE SHULLSBURG, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
2 NE HAMMOND, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 NW CHIPPEWA FALLS, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
2 SE SHULLSBURG, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
3 NNE WAUSAU, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
OWEN, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
SHAWANO LAKE, WI
-
HEAVY RAIN (13)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 N DARLINGTON, WI
3.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE ROBERTS, WI
3.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
DARLINGTON, WI
2.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SHAWANO, WI
2.8"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SUAMICO, WI
2.5"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
STILES, WI
2.01"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SCANDINAVIA, WI
1.81"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 WSW ABRAMS, WI
1.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MOSINEE, WI
1.28"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GREEN BAY, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 SE POLONIA, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SW KEWAUNEE, WI
1.09"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
NE WAUSAU, WI
1.05"
OTHER (1)
NON-TSTM WND DMG
NON-TSTM WND DMG
1 NE BAYFIELD, WI
-
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