TUES 9:39PM- not enough instability. Outlook downgraded
TUES 10AM - Latest model guidance more aggressive with t-storm activity across the Mississippi River region tonight, generally between 4-8PM. Storms will weaken as they move across Wisconsin.
The dynamics are strong and wind profile nicely veered. Weak instability pool will be located west of the Mississippi River. Backed surface winds in WI - east of the N|S warm front - but not located within the warm sector which means storm inflow will be interrupted once they move off the warm front. While t-storms are on the warm front they could be strong to severe. All short range models are showing this scenario.
Short range models have performed poorly this summer and I won't totally buy what they are selling. Previous runs were less aggressive and I think chances are high timing does not work out (things don't come together). It needs to be perfect. We are counting on instability building quickly out of the south and if storms form before instability arrives; storms will be energy starved. I think that's what previous runs have been showing. I've bumped this forecast into the "Strong" category for now which is a reasonable move given model consistency towards weaker solutions on previous runs. Want to avoid a huge knee jerk reaction.