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Wisconsin Weather

JUL 9, 2019 | T-Storms Possible Tonight in Western WI

TUES 9:39PM- not enough instability. Outlook downgraded

TUES 10AM - Latest model guidance more aggressive with t-storm activity across the Mississippi River region tonight, generally between 4-8PM. Storms will weaken as they move across Wisconsin.

The dynamics are strong and wind profile nicely veered. Weak instability pool will be located west of the Mississippi River. Backed surface winds in WI - east of the N|S warm front - but not located within the warm sector which means storm inflow will be interrupted once they move off the warm front. While t-storms are on the warm front they could be strong to severe. All short range models are showing this scenario.

Short range models have performed poorly this summer and I won't totally buy what they are selling. Previous runs were less aggressive and I think chances are high timing does not work out (things don't come together). It needs to be perfect. We are counting on instability building quickly out of the south and if storms form before instability arrives; storms will be energy starved. I think that's what previous runs have been showing. I've bumped this forecast into the "Strong" category for now which is a reasonable move given model consistency towards weaker solutions on previous runs. Want to avoid a huge knee jerk reaction.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Strong Thunderstorms
Last Update
LAST UPDATE | JULY 9
Start
TUE 3:00 PM - Jul 09, 2019
End
TUE 10:00 PM - Jul 09, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class
Forecaster
Justin Poublon

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Archives

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Storm Reports

TORNADO & FUNNEL CLOUD (1)
TORNADO
TORNADO
1 NNE POTOSI, WI
-
WIND GUSTS (3)
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
POTOSI, WI
40 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 S LANCASTER, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 WSW ELLENBORO, WI
-
LARGE HAIL (13)
HAIL
HAIL
MONDOVI, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
PATCH GROVE, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
2 E BAGLEY, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
2 SW PLATTEVILLE, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
4 NNW NEW POST, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
5 SSW SPARTA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
BOSCOBEL, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
BUTTERNUT, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
COLBY, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
1 SW SPARTA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
1 ENE RICHLAND CENTER, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
ONEIDA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
TREMPEALEAU, WI
0.25"
HEAVY RAIN (30)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PELL LAKE, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.71"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 E ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SW KENOSHA, WI
1.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.42"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW PELL LAKE, WI
1.42"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE UNION GROVE, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 W NORTH BAY, WI
1.38"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 W CUDAHY, WI
1.24"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W MUSKEGO, WI
1.24"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE SOUTH MILWAUKEE, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 N UNION GROVE, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ESE BELOIT, WI
1.22"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GENOA CITY, WI
1.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CUDAHY, WI
1.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW OAK CREEK, WI
1.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE WIND LAKE, WI
1.12"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SW RACINE, WI
1.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
1.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE GREENDALE, WI
1.04"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW BURLINGTON, WI
1.01"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
0.72"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SINSINAWA, WI
0.45"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
EASTMAN, WI
0.37"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S DE SOTO, WI
0.31"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NNW PLATTEVILLE, WI
0.15"
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