WEDS 8:25AM - Moved the outlook further east and trimmed north. Still waiting for 12z but quicker timing on trigger on overnight data has pushed the storm threat into Lake Michigan and Michigan. Not totally ruling out initiation in WI and will keep a sliver of a threat along far eastern WI.
TUES 940PM - not much has changed from first forecast. Models still split on timing. If faster trigger then there is nothing to talk about unless you plan to be on Lake Michigan or in upper Michigan. Slower trigger and there may be a couple supercells treking through eastern WI.
A relative lack of action tonight may suggest less action on Weds PM. All remains to be seen. I'm not making any assumptions and will probably base forecast off weds 12z model with the slowest timing. I thought the 00Z suite out just minutes ago was a bad run relative to the 18z which had better placement on current radar trends. Should be interesting!
MON 4:15PM - A line of scattered thunderstorms should develop over the eastern half of Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon.
The overall impact will depending on timing. Some models delay initiation until late afternoon and by that point the forcing will have shifted east into Lake Michigan. My thoughts on the other hand are that initiation will happen quicker/further west; perhaps along the I-39 per the NAM. Development could be supercell in character. Bulk shear and instability is decent. The wind profile is a bit unidirectional. Low level shear is weak and lapse rates weak. The basic severe weather threats; wind gusts and hail. I believe the tornado threat is not noteworthy at this time. I'm curious about the interaction with the lake Breeze before the storms head over Lake Michigan; possible intensification given the added lift and southeasterly backing winds east of the boundary. I usually don't rule anything out when it comes to this.
Northeast WI is most at risk right now. Cannot rule out cells popping in southern WI within the better instability.
Will wait until Tuesday to comment further. There is some question about Tuesday PM into Weds AM convection which could have an impact on the rest of the day. Also if timing speeds up afternoon storms won't have much (or any) impact.