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Wisconsin Weather

JUN 30, 2019 | UPDATED - Severe Storms Likely Sunday

LAST UPDATE : JUN 30, 2019

UPDATE - 10:30PM SAT

Watching the latest radar and model trends it's becoming very clear that most convective short range models today were wrong. The HRRR , low res NAM, and GFS have been the closest over the last 6-12hrs. I prefer to borrow some of the good ideas from the short range models at apply that to what appears most likely at the moment.

At the moment; a cluster of storms has developed up near the US/CAN border. We are seeing some development near i-94 in ND. The bulk of overnight MCS activity looks to stay further north as opposed to knifing south across Minneapolis/MS River. This opens the door for development across Wisconsin during peak heating.

1030PM regional view
1030PM regional view

Instability tomorrow will be very high...above 5,000 j/kg+... on the left side of the instability gradient to be located across Wisconsin. Commonly that is near I-94; but recent model trends show much of southern WI destabilizing rapidly tomorrow also. Here's the thing; there is a massive amount of untouched energy pooled across Iowa and southern WI. If overnight/am convection doesn't dent that; it's going to be fireworks across WI. Rarely do we get this type of energy and rarely does the boundary take on NW/SE configuration in NW flow.

The supercell threat I mentioned earlier is not as concerning right now. I think mainly a damaging wind and large hail threat bowing segments with these storms, though a tornado is not out of the question at boundary intersections or initiation.

I'm hesitant to go all the way to "Severe" for three reasons: 1. We still have tomorrow AM to gain more confidence. 2. It's consistent with messaging so far and don't have to change as much. 3. I think shear is on the weak end. Instability could be ten thousand and all it might do is gust out.

In the end I get the feeling we need to do more about this situation; thus I bumped to severe. But doesn't hurt to wait tonight. It's still possible that an MCS could develop and plow southeastward. I will be up early either way.

One more note: Did not spend much time on Illinois. Main focus is WI.

1:00PM SAT - Video forecast (18 min)

Here are the two MAIN ways things could go on Sunday ...

1. MOST LIKELY - MCS develops over north Dakota/Minnesota and dives south across Wisconsin Sunday morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat. This limits day time heating an precludes any afternoon t-storm development. You might still get some strong storms overnight into Monday - depending on the timing - but this would be less certain.

2. LESS LIKELY - All activity fades away this afternoon and convection DOES NOT develop in north Dakota or central MN tonight; or develops further north. MCS pushes through Duluth and northeast Wisconsin. Outflow boundary left from morning complex triggers highly unstable environment Sunday afternoon in central/western WI. Supercell structures lead to damaging wind, very large hail, and tornado threat.

Given the uncertainty at this moment I will hold back a little bit. Either way I expect strong to severe storms Sunday across portions of Wisconsin. It's just when and what exactly that I'm unsure about. Will wait for more information: the 00Z model run and monitor current conditions. I hope to have a more detailed forecast ready later tonight.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Severe Thunderstorms, Squall Line
Start
SUN 3:00 AM - Jun 30, 2019
End
SUN 9:00 PM - Jun 30, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class

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Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (40)
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
PLATTEVILLE, WI
75 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
SILVER LAKE, WI
58 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
1 SSW WATERTOWN, WI
58 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
1 NE COLUMBUS, WI
52 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
2 N JUNEAU, WI
50 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
3 N NEW BERLIN, WI
50 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
VESPER, WI
50 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
MARSHFIELD, WI
48 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
1 N ONALASKA, WI
47 MPH
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
WISCONSIN RAPIDS, WI
46 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
PORTAGE, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
POYNETTE, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
MONTELLO, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
MOUNT STERLING, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
NEKOOSA, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
PELL LAKE, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
BELMONT, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
FONTANA-ON-GENEVA, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
HORICON, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
IXONIA, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
JUNEAU, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
LAKE DELTON, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
6 SE CLYMAN, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
CUBA CITY, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
DELAVAN, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
DOUSMAN, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
ENDEAVOR, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 SSW PADDOCK LAKE, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 SW LAC LA BELLE, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 W GENOA CITY, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 NNE BARABOO, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 ENE OCONOMOWOC, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 ENE PRAIRIE DU SAC, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 ENE SUN PRAIRIE, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
1 ESE HARTFORD, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
3 NNW SILVER LAKE, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
3 SE BENTON, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
5 N LAC LA BELLE, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
5 NNE MUKWONAGO, WI
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
WYOCENA, WI
LARGE HAIL (3)
HAIL
HAIL
HOLMEN, WI
0.75"
HAIL
HAIL
ARENA, WI
0.7"
HAIL
HAIL
WISCONSIN RAPIDS, WI
0.25"
HEAVY RAIN (25)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 NNW AMNICON FALLS S.P, WI
1.83"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
1.6"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W DELAFIELD, WI
1.58"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
11 SSE BRULE, WI
1.48"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W SOLON SPRINGS, WI
1.43"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
8 W SOLON SPRINGS, WI
1.43"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
7 E PATZAU, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WSW MAPLE, WI
1.36"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 SSE PLATTEVILLE, WI
1.34"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 S HAWTHORNE, WI
1.3"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
4 NNE RANDALL, WI
1.27"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 S SOLON SPRINGS, WI
1.26"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SW HAYWARD, WI
1.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 SSE SOUTH RANGE, WI
1.25"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SSW SUPERIOR, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
8 WNW MINONG, WI
1.18"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NW PORT EDWARDS, WI
1.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
FENNIMORE, WI
1.04"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NW WINTER, WI
1.03"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WISCONSIN RAPIDS, WI
1.01"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W PLATTEVILLE, WI
1.0"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S WATERTOWN, WI
0.94"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
WITHEE, WI
0.9"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 NE LUBLIN, WI
0.82"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
MONDOVI, WI
0.79"
SNOW (1)
Snow
SNOW
ST GERMAIN, WI
OTHER (2)
Amish Buggy
AMISH BUGGY
COLOMA, WI
4
Amish Buggy
AMISH BUGGY
WAUTOMA, WI
1