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Wisconsin Weather

JUN 30, 2019 | UPDATED - Severe Storms Likely Sunday

UPDATE - 10:30PM SAT

Watching the latest radar and model trends it's becoming very clear that most convective short range models today were wrong. The HRRR , low res NAM, and GFS have been the closest over the last 6-12hrs. I prefer to borrow some of the good ideas from the short range models at apply that to what appears most likely at the moment.

At the moment; a cluster of storms has developed up near the US/CAN border. We are seeing some development near i-94 in ND. The bulk of overnight MCS activity looks to stay further north as opposed to knifing south across Minneapolis/MS River. This opens the door for development across Wisconsin during peak heating.

1030PM regional view
1030PM regional view

Instability tomorrow will be very high...above 5,000 j/kg+... on the left side of the instability gradient to be located across Wisconsin. Commonly that is near I-94; but recent model trends show much of southern WI destabilizing rapidly tomorrow also. Here's the thing; there is a massive amount of untouched energy pooled across Iowa and southern WI. If overnight/am convection doesn't dent that; it's going to be fireworks across WI. Rarely do we get this type of energy and rarely does the boundary take on NW/SE configuration in NW flow.

The supercell threat I mentioned earlier is not as concerning right now. I think mainly a damaging wind and large hail threat bowing segments with these storms, though a tornado is not out of the question at boundary intersections or initiation.

I'm hesitant to go all the way to "Severe" for three reasons: 1. We still have tomorrow AM to gain more confidence. 2. It's consistent with messaging so far and don't have to change as much. 3. I think shear is on the weak end. Instability could be ten thousand and all it might do is gust out.

In the end I get the feeling we need to do more about this situation; thus I bumped to severe. But doesn't hurt to wait tonight. It's still possible that an MCS could develop and plow southeastward. I will be up early either way.

One more note: Did not spend much time on Illinois. Main focus is WI.

1:00PM SAT - Video forecast (18 min)

Here are the two MAIN ways things could go on Sunday ...

1. MOST LIKELY - MCS develops over north Dakota/Minnesota and dives south across Wisconsin Sunday morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat. This limits day time heating an precludes any afternoon t-storm development. You might still get some strong storms overnight into Monday - depending on the timing - but this would be less certain.

2. LESS LIKELY - All activity fades away this afternoon and convection DOES NOT develop in north Dakota or central MN tonight; or develops further north. MCS pushes through Duluth and northeast Wisconsin. Outflow boundary left from morning complex triggers highly unstable environment Sunday afternoon in central/western WI. Supercell structures lead to damaging wind, very large hail, and tornado threat.

Given the uncertainty at this moment I will hold back a little bit. Either way I expect strong to severe storms Sunday across portions of Wisconsin. It's just when and what exactly that I'm unsure about. Will wait for more information: the 00Z model run and monitor current conditions. I hope to have a more detailed forecast ready later tonight.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Severe Thunderstorms, Squall Line
Last Update
LAST UPDATE | JUNE 30
Start
SUN 3:00 AM - Jun 30, 2019
End
SUN 9:00 PM - Jun 30, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class
Forecaster
Justin Poublon

Archives

Archive not available

Storm Reports

TORNADO & FUNNEL CLOUD (1)
TORNADO
TORNADO
1 NNE POTOSI, WI
-
WIND GUSTS (3)
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
POTOSI, WI
40 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 S LANCASTER, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 WSW ELLENBORO, WI
-
LARGE HAIL (13)
HAIL
HAIL
MONDOVI, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
PATCH GROVE, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
2 E BAGLEY, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
2 SW PLATTEVILLE, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
4 NNW NEW POST, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
5 SSW SPARTA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
BOSCOBEL, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
BUTTERNUT, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
COLBY, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
1 SW SPARTA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
1 ENE RICHLAND CENTER, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
ONEIDA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
TREMPEALEAU, WI
0.25"
HEAVY RAIN (30)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PELL LAKE, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.71"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 E ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SW KENOSHA, WI
1.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.42"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW PELL LAKE, WI
1.42"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE UNION GROVE, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 W NORTH BAY, WI
1.38"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 W CUDAHY, WI
1.24"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W MUSKEGO, WI
1.24"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE SOUTH MILWAUKEE, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 N UNION GROVE, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ESE BELOIT, WI
1.22"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GENOA CITY, WI
1.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CUDAHY, WI
1.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW OAK CREEK, WI
1.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE WIND LAKE, WI
1.12"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SW RACINE, WI
1.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
1.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE GREENDALE, WI
1.04"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW BURLINGTON, WI
1.01"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
0.72"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SINSINAWA, WI
0.45"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
EASTMAN, WI
0.37"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S DE SOTO, WI
0.31"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NNW PLATTEVILLE, WI
0.15"
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