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Wisconsin Weather

JUN 27, 2019 | Strong Storms Ending Overnight

12:00 PM -

8:18 AM - Expanded target area further a little further north. Not ready to bump to "Severe". Did bump event up to a 3-Moderate. Confidence raised to above average.

8AM mesoanalysis showing the main instability pool pointing into SE MN/NE IA. For severe in WI IDEALLY I'd like to see that pointing into WI. SOUTHERN WI still unstable but not the maximum amount.
8AM mesoanalysis showing the main instability pool pointing into SE MN/NE IA. For severe in WI IDEALLY I'd like to see that pointing into WI. SOUTHERN WI still unstable but not the maximum amount.


7:00 AM - Video Update


9:50 PM WED - well not making any changes tonight. Only looked at 00NAM so far and it's not any more clear. Will need to see how that complex looks coming out of the Dakotas in the AM. Next update in the AM. Pretty sure this complex will be the main event for the afternoon hours.

PREVIOUS UPDATE 1:30PM WED - There is plenty of uncertainty regarding the evolution of thunderstorm activity on Thursday. There are probably two main ways it could go. The strategy for 2019 is to wait until the last minute because of poor model performance. Despite potential shaping up; shouldn't jump in guns blazing now either.

Most models show a complex of storms pushing through Wisconsin during the mid-day hour, then redevelopment late in the day west of I-90 near the WI/IA/MN intersection. I used the "Target" zone across southwest WI out of respect for model uncertainty. There has been general consistency. I want to see more from the 00Z run and will consider bumping to a severe risk threat at that point if necessary.

EARLY THURSDAY

NAM predicts a complex of storms will move through Wisconsin during the middle of the day. This complex may intensify and could become the main event.
NAM predicts a complex of storms will move through Wisconsin during the middle of the day. This complex may intensify and could become the main event.

A convective complex will pass over the state from west to east during the day. Most models bring that through northern/central Wisconsin. With timing squarely on peak heating we may see intensification of this system in the afternoon. GFS a bit slower and could act to diffuse the situation somewhat. Convective models are faster with most 12Z CAM's showing pretty much the same thing. Not sure about instability as models have been too aggressive with moisture influx in 2019. Either way; could see a strong storm during the day...it this could become the main event if the GFS is correct.

THURS NIGHT - FRI AM

NAM simulation for Thursday night showing worst case scenario of complex forming and bowing out to the southeast. This is far from certain.
NAM simulation for Thursday night showing worst case scenario of complex forming and bowing out to the southeast. This is far from certain.

Most models show redevelopment of t-storm activity on Thursday night into Fri AM back west, likely in the form of a convective system propagating east and south after dark. The primary threats would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. In the worst case scenario I foresee the complex riding an outflow boundary from early Thursday complex. Short range models show this but are just a little cool at the surface which suggests we would get a rotating mesoscale system but maybe not connecting all the way to the surface. With nicely veered soundings and good moisture flow in from the southwest, I think severe storms will be possible. The only thing that could disrupt it would be an overly aggressive early Thursday complex acting to cool the boundary layer.

Will consider boosting to 3-Moderate class tomorrow morning depending on which path mother nature takes. If we go there then will likely need a blog post. But we'll see. The plan is to update this storm event as we get closer and will resend if severe risk/confidence increases.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Severe Thunderstorms, Squall Line
Last Update
LAST UPDATE | JUNE 27
Start
THU 6:00 AM - Jun 27, 2019
End
FRI 3:00 AM - Jun 28, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class
Forecaster
Justin Poublon

Archives

Archive not available

Storm Reports

TORNADO & FUNNEL CLOUD (1)
TORNADO
TORNADO
1 NNE POTOSI, WI
-
WIND GUSTS (3)
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
POTOSI, WI
40 MPH
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 S LANCASTER, WI
-
TSTM WND DMG
TSTM WND DMG
4 WSW ELLENBORO, WI
-
LARGE HAIL (13)
HAIL
HAIL
2 E BAGLEY, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
2 SW PLATTEVILLE, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
PATCH GROVE, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
MONDOVI, WI
0.5"
HAIL
HAIL
ONEIDA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
TREMPEALEAU, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
4 NNW NEW POST, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
BOSCOBEL, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
BUTTERNUT, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
COLBY, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
5 SSW SPARTA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
1 SW SPARTA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
1 ENE RICHLAND CENTER, WI
0.25"
HEAVY RAIN (30)
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
PELL LAKE, WI
1.75"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.71"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 E ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.7"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.69"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
3 SW KENOSHA, WI
1.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SSE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.52"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE ELMWOOD PARK, WI
1.42"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW PELL LAKE, WI
1.42"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE UNION GROVE, WI
1.4"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 W NORTH BAY, WI
1.38"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
2 W CUDAHY, WI
1.24"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 W MUSKEGO, WI
1.24"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SE SOUTH MILWAUKEE, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 N UNION GROVE, WI
1.23"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ESE BELOIT, WI
1.22"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
1.2"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
CUDAHY, WI
1.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
GENOA CITY, WI
1.19"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW OAK CREEK, WI
1.15"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE WIND LAKE, WI
1.12"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 SW RACINE, WI
1.1"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NNW SAINT FRANCIS, WI
1.07"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 ENE GREENDALE, WI
1.04"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 WNW BURLINGTON, WI
1.01"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 NE PRAIRIE DU CHIEN, WI
0.72"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
SINSINAWA, WI
0.45"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
EASTMAN, WI
0.37"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
1 S DE SOTO, WI
0.31"
HEAVY RAIN
HEAVY RAIN
5 NNW PLATTEVILLE, WI
0.15"
SNOW (1)
SNOW
SNOW
7 ESE SUPERIOR, WI
1.6"
OTHER (1)
FLOOD
FLOOD
GREEN BAY, WI
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