• News
  • 7-Day
  • Storms
  • Updates
  • Weekly
  • Monthly
  • Local
Wisconsin Weather

JUN 1, 2019 | Strong T-storm Possible Madison to Milwaukee

Mother nature trying to sneak one past us. The thumbnail might be a bit aggressive but you get the point.

Leftover boundary from Friday night convection as low pressure center slips through southern WI will serve as initiation source for a morning to mid-day thunderstorm/s most likely traversing the I-94 corridor. Development may occur as far west as the Mississippi River in southwest WI (Prairie du Chien).

Progs earlier this week concealed this setup but it's starting to emerge as timing slows down.

Southern WI will remain untouched by overnight convection with instability available. It's a delicate setup. Storms would probably start elevated. If timing is even slower (and it often is) then there will be a window of opportunity for severe weather because it will tap surface based instability during the early afternoon in SE WI. 12Z NAM High res showing this scenario exactly. Soundings from between 18-21Z are good for strong/severe storms in southeast Wisconsin. More strong than severe. Marginally severe possible. Sufficiently veered sounding but magnitude of shear is weak. Near the lake breeze shear could be enhanced. Also because timing is earlier dews and temps in better relationship with TD-spreads around 10-15F. PLEASE NOTE - just because I say it possible doesn't mean it will; just pointing out the parameters don't rule anything out tomorrow. No surprises!

12Z NAM high res sounding from the perfect spot in SE WI 20Z Saturday. Not bad.
12Z NAM high res sounding from the perfect spot in SE WI 20Z Saturday. Not bad.

So yeah for a few hours things could get interesting. On the other hand if overnight convection is more aggressive it could ruin the setup...I feel this scenario is unlikely. Rain & storm chance decreases during the late afternoon/evening.

Models keep overdoing moisture and instability. We are in June. Something has to give. No longer knocking setups thermodynamically from the get-go like we did in spring.

Don't be surprised! I'll try to make my way down there. We are selling our house this weekend and I may not be able to make it.

Forecast Maps

Thunderstorm Outlooks

Thunderstorms
General
Strong
Severe
Significant

Verification


Storm Details

Hazards
Strong Thunderstorms
Last Update
LAST UPDATE | JUNE 1
Start
SAT 3:00 AM - Jun 01, 2019
End
SUN 5:00 PM - Jun 02, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class
Forecaster
Justin Poublon

Posts & Media

Archives

Archive not available

Storm Reports

WIND GUSTS (1)
TSTM WND GST
TSTM WND GST
SILVER LAKE, WI
40 MPH
LARGE HAIL (12)
HAIL
HAIL
5 NE LAKE GENEVA, WI
1.25"
HAIL
HAIL
1 S NEW GLARUS, WI
1.25"
HAIL
HAIL
1 WNW JANESVILLE, WI
1.0"
HAIL
HAIL
1 NNE COMO, WI
0.75"
HAIL
HAIL
1 WNW ELKHORN, WI
0.75"
HAIL
HAIL
1 SE MUKWONAGO, WI
0.7"
HAIL
HAIL
2 NW NEW GLARUS, WI
0.7"
HAIL
HAIL
2 NW WINTHROP HARBOR, WI
0.7"
HAIL
HAIL
5 SE PLEASANT PRAIRIE, WI
0.7"
HAIL
HAIL
KENOSHA, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
OAKFIELD, WI
0.25"
HAIL
HAIL
3 N MARKESAN, WI
0.25"
© 2020 Wisconsin Weather Group | All Rights Reserved
v9.571
Designed for Google Chrome