Since mid-January we've experienced consistently +PNA
conditions in combination with a slow and steady decline into -AO phase. This has been a relatively long and uneventful stretch of weather that will culminate with warm near-record temperatures Sunday through next week. Forecasts (at least on the teleconnection level) suggest the situation is going to flip into early March towards -PNA/+AO relationship, at least temporarily. This will more closely resemble the weather pattern we saw in December.
Research shows this -PNA/+AO suggests a storm track through the plains and great lakes as cold air attempts to reassert itself. As we often do this time of year, I predict we will have one or two major systems will impact the great lakes by the end of February. Long range forecast models support this idea. Learn more about PNA