Since mid-January we've experienced consistently +PNA conditions in combination with a slow and steady decline into -AO phase. This has been a relatively long and uneventful stretch of weather that will culminate with warm near-record temperatures Sunday through next week. Forecasts (at least on the teleconnection level) suggest the situation is going to flip into early March towards -PNA/+AO relationship, at least temporarily. This will more closely resemble the weather pattern we saw in December.

 Research shows this -PNA/+AO suggests a storm track through the plains and great lakes as cold air attempts to reassert itself. As we often do this time of year, I predict we will have one or two major systems will impact the great lakes by the end of February. Long range forecast models support this idea.  Learn more about PNA here ->climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PNA.html