Watching Thursday, Mar 1 Storm
By Justin Poublon
February 25, 2018 - 8:00 PM CST | 22 0
Thurs Mar 1 - southern shift in track since Monday.
Sun Feb 25 - This system has been on our radars for a very long time. Only recently have model solutions settled on a general area. Plenty of uncertainty remains.
Models generally agree on a compact system driving across the southern great lakes. The odds are favorable for this storm having an impact on southern Wisconsin. The GFS is the strongest deepening a sub-990mb low in northeast Illinois, typically a favorable track for snow in southern Wisconsin. The warm thermal profiles will complicated and already undecided storm track. CIPS is favorable for minor-moderate impact snowfall in southern Wisconsin. This is how you end up with graphic below:
This issue with this storm will be the thermal profiles and transition from rain to snow, wherever it occurs and it's going to be messy.
The Canadian is slower and further east with deepening which has been it's MO lately. The GFS/EC generally agree on location of the snow and transition from rain but don't feel total confidence just yet. The GFS was too strong with the last storm in the northwest so I would advise against building your entire forecast around it.
The GFS worst case scenario would bring 2"+ QPF to southeast Wisconsin with 6"+ snow totals and gusty northerly winds. I'm thinking somewhere weaker than that, perhaps minor-to moderate impact. Won't rule out a significant impact on a localized scale in terms of heavy snow or rain. Lake effect snow could be a thing too. Should be interesting!