Wisconsin Weather

Thursday T-Storms in Wisconsin; Severe Weather Possible

This is pretty common forecast subject line for mid-summer in Wisconsin. "Severe storms are possible but uncertainty is high".

You see this from meteorologists all the time because morning convective systems are notoriously difficult to anticipate and never clear-cut. In summer especially; models have big disagreements and there is no guarantee any model will be mostly accurate over the next 24 hours. Sometimes they fail spectacularly! This is why Meteorologists should never base their predictions on one single forecast model!!!

I know...all you want to know is "will there be a tornado". But this explains one reason we can't always confidently answer that question. Alright now that's taken care off, let's address tomorrow's "morning convective system" with simulation graphics from one single forecast model... ;)

Thursdays Model Simulations

Short range models show this situation evolving on Thursday. Again these models are prone to change and should not be taken as fact. At the very least it should help you to have some context for when things change:

NAM predicts a complex of storms will move through Wisconsin during the middle of the day. This complex may intensify and could become the main event.
NAM predicts a complex of storms will move through Wisconsin during the middle of the day. This complex may intensify and could become the main event.

NAM simulation for Thursday night showing worst case scenario of complex forming and bowing out to the southeast. This is far from certain.
NAM simulation for Thursday night showing worst case scenario of complex forming and bowing out to the southeast. This is far from certain.

You can find more information on our Member Forecast page.

Thunderstorm Outlook - Thursday June 26, 2019

Here is our t-storm outlook for tomorrow:

Thunderstorm outlook map for Thursday, June 26 2019. The target area may be upgraded to severe per model simulations.
Thunderstorm outlook map for Thursday, June 26 2019. The target area may be upgraded to severe per model simulations.

Strong storms will be possible across much of the state. We've placed a "Target" area in southwest WI to show where I think the severe storms will be most likely.

The next update to our outlook will be either tonight or tomorrow morning where we may upgrade or leave as-is. Please check back later for more details! Potential exists for strong storms and we will be monitoring the situation closely over the next 24 hours.

Our members have access to our detailed discussion where there is more information. Please check it out if you are interested in this stuff!

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