T-Storms in the Northwoods Tonight
By Justin Poublon
August 8, 2018 - 12:30 PM CST | 4 0
Scattered thunderstorms will approach from the north tonight, one or two which could be strong north of HWY 29. If storms become established over lake Superior watch out for strong wind gusts along the north shore. Peak timing is between 7PM and sunset. This activity will weaken as it travels southeast overnight.
Discussion - I think the conditions are right for strong thunderstorms to move off Lake Superior into northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan tonight. I was hesitant to go "Severe" because I have questions about instability, timing, and storm mode. Still enough there to hash the north shore in a couple counties because I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two cells go briefly severe. If storms get going over lake superior they could gust out southeastward into the north shore made worse by the flat (uninterrupted) surface of lake Superior. The hashed area is where I think the strongest storms will occur. Forecast models have a variety of solutions, even pushing a strong cell along a near- Hayward axis.
The storms will move south overnight. As instability weakens they will fall apart, perhaps making it as far as central Wisconsin but probably not southern Wisconsin early Thursday AM.