Wisconsin Weather

Summer-like Warmth to Return in May

Below average temperatures to start the month had me questioning whether summer would ever come. Latest indications are that indeed, summer-like weather is on it's way!

The strongly positive +AO which kept cold bottled up over the Arctic has unraveled. Part of the unraveling was the cold pattern we've seen in early May. I believe this was winters last gasp. We will still have sharp cold fronts and days with well below average temperatures through-out summer as a lingering effect of this arctic anomaly.

Temperatures vs. avg since May 1, well below avg eastern US. This trend will be erased by flip to above avg temps in second half of May
Temperatures vs. avg since May 1, well below avg eastern US. This trend will be erased by flip to above avg temps in second half of May

At the 500mb jet level, the change is clear to see. The exact opposite pattern from early May will occur in the second half of May. This corresponds to above average temperatures moving in - perhaps into the 80's. With that will have to watch the possibility of severe weather. I expect May to be drier than average. This time of year hasn't been very productive for severe weather or storm chasing opportunities IN WISCONSIN in recent years. Late May is always peak season on the plains and this pattern surely supports what you would expect...perhaps a bit further north?

500mb anomlies maps from early May vs. late May. The complete opposite pattern may develop at times with summer-like warmth finally returning.
500mb anomalies maps from early May vs. late May. The complete opposite pattern may develop at times with summer-like warmth finally returning.

GFS temperature anomaly forecast for a day in the near future. This pattern could bring well above average temperatures at times.
GFS temperature anomaly forecast for a day in the near future. This pattern could bring well above average temperatures at times.

In conclusion; the long term trend is that cold will flip to warmth across the country. My summer forecast suggests temperatures will be near or above average. That doesn't mean there won't be colder days here or there.

My focus now is on storm chasing season. We've had a couple severe weather days here in Wisconsin but it's gone quiet since then. Severe weather will return again usually ramping up in June. I will be out as much as possible this year.

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