Spring Shows First Sign of Life Next Week
By Justin Poublon
March 9, 2019 - 11:12 AM CST | 998 0
Snow will fly this weekend over much of Wisconsin and the long term is showing below average temperatures through March. Next week will bring a small taste of what's to come over the next few months.
Next week a strong low pressure system will drive north across the central United States delivering the first punch of spring to Wisconsin. A wave of rain or wintry mix will precede the warm up for Wednesday. Southern Wisconsin will feel the biggest lift as temperatures could reach or exceed 50° either Wednesday, Thursday, or both.
Northern and central WI will struggle to warm due to deep snowpack but I think upper 30°s or 40°s are realistic for you. Expect windy conditions. The storm will end late next week with decreasing temperatures and light snow. It's early and things can change etc etc...
STORM CHASING TIME?
If it were April we would be talking about thunderstorms and severe weather potential. Because of the snowpack in place the storm will not be supportive for severe weather in Wisconsin...well most of it. I cannot rule out a thunderstorm if the timing is favorable Wednesday or Thursday. Perhaps the warm front can sneak further north as we get closer? Something to think about. Many factors going against it at this stage.
I said the storm this weekend looked like a warm up initially then it trended colder. This has to do with the occlusion and upper level pattern which allows the storm to roll off west to east. I think the storm next week is very likely to track west of Wisconsin given the amplitude of the upper level jet. Models have always shown it taking this path though the GFS has trended slightly south over time. The big question is just how warm can it get with 40" of snow on the ground? For this reason I wouldn't get too carried away with the outdoor plans.
JUST A SIGN OF LIFE
This is just the first sign of life. Unfortunately beyond next week below average temperatures are likely to return (see below). Our winter is back-loaded and it's going to take awhile to punch it into submission. The good news is that temperatures (on average) increase quickly this time of year. Below average = 20-30's which is an improvement. The March sun feels warm to the skin. And I think next week is good sign that the worst of the winter is likely behind us.
Spring is a progression. The road ahead will be long and winter will return at times. 3 steps forward, 2 steps back. But there are signs of life and that's the biggest thing.